Yes, it was a nice evening here at the Coliseum as USC got their mojo back. More than I can say for the “Ross & Beau” Show!
No it does not please me that these two continue to attack my character, unfettered - but thank God I am WAY past letting it affect my trading systems.
So let’s cut to the chase and here are the numbers after a bit more than 6 months -
System Open Total Annual
KC Delight (defunct) $0 $6,810 +55.0%
KC E-mini $0 $8,975 +140.6%
KC Elite $0 $11,717 +131.5%
KC Futures $0 $14,335 +77.4%
KC Hedge $0 $21,020 +119.3%
KC Leader $0 ($2,339) -6.7%
KC MVV/MZZ $4,282 $4,282 +193973000.0%
KC Partners $0 $6,235 +28.2%
KC QLD/QID $4,017 $4,017 +16891600.0%
These systems thrive during typical trending markets - both long and short. The longest uninterrupted trend we have had in 2008 lasted just 2 months. Really the worse-type scenario (for me) has indeed been this volatile jerky-jerky action. Once we get a bottom and “normal” trend our best days will unfold, so stay tuned.
I’ve been through this in 2002 (http://www.kingdomcapital.com/performance/2002perf.htm) with my covered call funds - the first year I tracked “LIVE” my results at KingdomCapital.com. (Prior to that were 3 years of my paper-traded results, 1998-2001).
Like I said, my first attempt at translating my “edge” from covered calls to futures took a bit getting used to or my 2 failed accounts at C2. There is varied leverage across my current 8 systems and we’ve done fine these last 6 months in our attempt to capitalize on both LONG and SHORT trends. Furthermore, my stated goal of both making gains back from drawdown and reducing DD going forward were both accomplished in every system.
As you may notice my covered call results - although less with an annual average of ~50%, are doing quite well making some gains in 2008 while staying in cash during downtrends. Again the results these past six months in an up-and-down market are basically “noise” and when a decent trend does unfold. . .not only will my subscribers capitalize on an approximate tripling of equity, but again the standard preservation of said gains ad infinitum.
So when I offered Ross in early '08 free access to my site to monitor integrity of process I got the sound of crickets and now that Beau has this access he continues to berate me for staying in cash and letting the market plummet, so that my year-over-year outperformance currently stands at about 40%.
In 2009 I will open C2 accounts to reflect my covered call results with an independent audit, but by mid-year I expect to begin opening “managed accounts” to those interested in KC (futures) Funds.
I really don’t appreciate all the banter about my supposed dishonesty and fraudulent behavior. In 2002 I contact the Department of Corporations and was assured that if my website is used strictly for educational purposes and not specific in recommendations (all postings and trade alerts are sent out to a group of subscribers) that I will remain in compliance with our laws. I don’t suspect this to be any different now and I would appreciate the slander to cease.
In the meantime, I will continue to not upset too many I hope by tending to my systems and encouraging those that do. I will continue to abstain engaging in conversations with a negative tone and going forward my only reply will have to be silence or the occasional “…tRoaFL” and/or SHADDUPP!!!, since really that is pretty much all that is deserved.
As far as my claims I entirely have and will continue to back them up - whether I am believed or not, and if person(s) feel that I can’t call myself “President” or “Chief Strategist” of Kingdom Capital Management (the name on my business license since 2003) that is not my problem and I am sorry for your luck. I was a member of the Better Business Bureau but like the C2 Rating that has consistently been low, I feel no reason to keep up with registration.
Just to take this a bit further. . .if you look at my Market Direction calls recorded not just at my website and here, but at EliteTrader.com in 2008, “Stop Losses” periods do reflect a flat equity curve (http://www.kingdomcapital.com/performance/current/currentperf3c.htm) signifying cashing out during corresponding downtrends - did not happen by accident and time-stamps should remove/expose false accusations that I “do not know how to trade” or am “deceiving” or “lying” with regards to my stated results.
Exposing these false accusations further regarding my 2008 covered call gains - albeit small - one can look no farther than my March 20 bullish call and subsequent phase into positions posted “LIVE” here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=94764&perpage=6&pagenumber=73 and are time-stamped, exactly correlate with trading history and portfolio postings. My cash out call January 4th is also documented.
For now that will have to suffice until my new C2 2009 Covered Call Fund systems that will entirely remove any doubt. Perhaps this will stave off the wolves, but most know some characters will never be satisfied.
Gilbert J. Arevalo
Again until these systems gain a two-to-three fold jump they are admittedly mostly like what you have been (sadly) hearing on this website: noise. It is deafening to me and on top of what this market has thrown lately, quite sickening to stomach and I apologize if I am in any way responsible.
Looooool, what are you talking about?
You have 18 systems and 9 are positive. Wow, those are great odds. Where do I sign up?
If you had some of the best traders of all time create 18 new systems each, they would most likely be very pleased to have 9 successful.
How many others have 9 successful systems at this time? What Gilbert has done is not easy, even if it does not last.
". . .what are you talking about?
You have 18 systems and 9 are positive."
Not true Tj. Last count:
8 "ACTIVE" (7 profitable, 1 w/current small loss)
1 "DEFUNCT" (profitable)
3 "KILLED" (unprofitable - except for knowledge learned and experience)
This does not include (2) covered call systems at my website in each of every year, since 2002. But these are not traded at C2 - yet. In 2009 I will audit my own covered call results using this platform.
Futurm, you are so abundantly clueless, I am glad you said this. Every time you talk, you confirm your are uneducated in the things of trading.
Try averaging Gilbert’s systems together. You will likely find they are below zero in total. There is no 9 positive systems. He keeps trying and burying systems. Even a blind chicken trips over a worm once in a while.
If someone has a system that keeps going long and one that keeps going short, over time, one will look like a winner, and Gilbert would kill the other and say he is successful. When it stops weorking, he will kill nit and try the reverse again.
Want to try and take a stab at his stats???
When are you going to stop showing your 3rd grade education???
"No it does not please me that these two continue to attack my character, unfettered
There is no character. you are a liar, cheat, deceiver. THAT is why you never answer proof of your outlandish claims.
thank God I am WAY past letting it affect my trading systems.
Don’t dare take God to back your deceptive ways, cretin. He doesn’t take kindly to deceivers like you. You are the opposite of everything He stands for. God is complete purity. You are precisely the opposite. I wish I could be there when accounts are settled, and you realize what truth really is.
Your systems are not affected. They continue to expose your constant lies. They don’t work, and neither do you.
How vigorously woiuld you have defended yourself if any of the things people have demanded of your claims were true? You ran away from your threads on EliteTrader after getting attacked by so many and so often.
My response was to a posters numbers only. 18 and 9 would not be laughable for anyone. I don’t care to dig into Gilberts numbers, the post was only in response to 18, 9.
True I should not have commented on Gilberts systems without diging in to the numbers. You got me there.
"Futurm, you are so abundantly clueless, I am glad you said this. Every time you talk, you confirm your are uneducated in the things of trading."
Huh? Who is clueless here. Isn’t [LINKSYSTEM_29987971] one of the few highly successful systems at C2 authored by Futurm!?!
"Try averaging Gilbert’s systems together. You will likely find they are below zero in total. There is no 9 positive systems."
A recent tally showed an 80%+ annual average for 6 systems currently active and more than 6 months in age. My 2 new systems are currently positive (like the recently killed few week old systems that were also positive). No deception here.
Ross does not have ANYTHING to show yet insists on telling others how they should trade their systems. Sounds a bit silly to me.
"Want to try and take a stab at his stats???"
YES! By all means let’s stick to the stats.
“When are you going to stop showing your 3rd grade education???”
“Childish” describes exactly how YOU are acting!
"Don’t dare take God to back your deceptive ways, cretin."
You do not qualify to judge my character. More than a few successful C2 vendors have recently voiced the same concerted appeal - stop your childish behavior, right now. C2 stats will tell the tale well enough for most of us who are adults.
"THAT is why you never answer proof of your outlandish claims.
That is what I am attempting to do here at C2 and ALL YOUR SCREAMING isn’t helping the matter any.
"You are the opposite of everything He stands for. God is complete purity."
You are right. I am nothing close to what can be expected from a pure God. In fact, my life is a shallow and vain attempt at best.
Futurm, Are you serious? Read this article about survivorship bias and tell me again how his stats are good. His strategy appears to leverage this very theory.
"A recent tally showed an 80%+ annual average for 6 systems currently active and more than 6 months in age. My 2 new systems are currently positive (like the recently killed few week old systems that were also positive). No deception here. "
Gilbert, this is the very definition of survivorship bias. “No deception here” is not true. You need to put ALL of your systems into any aggregate claims on annual returns, including systems you’ve killed. Alex Rodriguez had a perfect 1.000 batting average last year excluding his strikeouts, pop outs and ground outs. How ridiculous and deceptive did that sound?
All I am saying is anyone who can create 18 systems and 9 turn out to be good, has done something not many can do even if for only 6 months. Anyone who thinks it is easy try it. I have personaly created too many systems to count, none of the failed systems take anything away from the three or four I trade with today. Perhaps I am missing something here but I see no connection with what I am saying and survivorship bias. I do not know exactly what Gilbert may be doing and that is not what I am talking about. And yes I am too lazy to dig in hoping to find Gilberts dark side. Let the subscribers do that!
"All I am saying is anyone who can create 18 systems and 9 turn out to be good, has done something not many can do even if for only 6 months."
Hmmm, perhaps were talking about something different. If someone randomly make 100 systems, by definition, 50 of them are going to outperform the bottom 50. And chances are, those top 50 will beat the S&P500 (and when I think "good", I think "beat the S&P500"). By beating their drum about the top 50, ignoring or hiding the bottom 50, they can make themselves look like a genius on paper. But the real story is that half of their initial 100 randomly created systems underperformed. So if someone succeeds with 9 of 18 systems or whatever the exact numbers are, they have done nothing but achieve a normal statistical distribution.
At a glance I don’t see any of what your talking about, Do you honestly see evidence of this from Gilberts systems?
Clearly missed your point. Thanks for clarifying though.
I do not understand how what you are saying relates to my system strategy approach. So you have had 1 month of success with your system and you are an expert regarding mine? Are you trading your first and only system, because by your definition - with just one more sub par approach you, too, would be batting that statistical flip of a coin or 50%.
Once again, the numbers you now find irrelevant are entirely so when taking your definition into consideration - I do not have 9 of 18 systems with gains. Counting them is very easy and in fact by your definition I suppose I am a genius (with 9 gaining and 3 losing)?!?
So what is your point that I completely am missing. Because if you think what my system management is as easy as a coin flip, I think you are sorely remiss. So what are we to think about you being up about as many months as you’ve been down? Surely you think there is more hope for you. Why would you think someone else wouldn’t feel the same? What would you think if someone gave you this very same analysis of [LINKSYSTEM_33365603]?
Clearly I am not getting you.
All I’m saying is that if he creates a million systems, statistically some of them are bound to perform well. And he likes to talk up the top systems and strategically ignores or “defuncts” the bottom systems. He’s doing nothing but building an artificial survivorship bias into a plethora of random systems.
What I see is someone who started with a few stinkers and since then has improved dramaticaly. To be honest I thought Gilbert was full of it for a while but he appears to have gotten his act together. Nothing I would personaly trade, but to me at least he is proving he can trade. (For now anyway.) Just because you don’t like used car salesmen don’t let it cloud objectivity. Take the early stinkers away and he isn’t doing too bad. It isn’t like he put stinkers on the same time as the better systems.
Gilbert is a person who:
came to C2, from EliteTrader, where he was often violating the ET terms of service by constantly trying to get free publicity because he couldn’t afford to advertise
was roundly mocked by many on ET, because he was so often clueless and uninformed about many things about trading
claimed SEVEN YEARS OF OVER 50% ANNUAL REAL RETURNS for his website traders.
Came to C2 claiming on ET, that it would not take long to reach the top 10 of C2. Of course, he cratered twice. And kept reinventing himself and saying, once again, he saw the light…
Why should he need to improve or get things right after 7 years of successful trading with real people???
Answer… because Gilbert is an obvious fraud. His systems are “good”, if you ignore most of the things that define “good.”
I don’t like used car salesmen either.