Day Trader Futures system feedback

Guys,

any feedback on the system is highly appreciated!

Thanks

Looking at your strategy several things I would want to know. First who are you and what do you do? Under your profile no description? How many years trading etc. etc. How do you handle stop losses? I know several of the strategies I have they have done back testing and are happy to provide. Have you done any back testing? I see you have two other strategies that did not make it? What’s the story behind that and what makes this one different? On a great positive note you have been trading here with 6 months plus history on this strategy. I know a lot of us will not subscribe to anything till they have been here for 6 months to a year. Also I do love the fact you do not hold overnight. I am possibly interested in your strategy now that I know about it and how you answer the questions and thoughts that are provided by everyone. Keep up the good trading on this one and I wish you the very best.

Thanks for the response. I shall update my profile so that it has more information. I do also provide back-test results to interested members. But I do hope that you base your decision on the track record here and that’s why collective2 is a great place.What I mean is anyone can say anything on profile, show a nice curve fitted backtest but unfortunately in many cases the rosy picture ends there :frowning:

To answer your question - Trading is not my full-time job although I have been trading for almost 15 years, not doing bad except for first 5 years :slight_smile: I trade mainly the indian market index futures (Nifty), I would love to present some strategies here on collective2, but its not supported.

I have been trading ES/NQ in the last 3-4 years. Firm believer of automated systems - which is what I personally use as well as publish on collective2 - All programs are run on the cloud without any manual intervention.

your question regarding stop loss - I believe any system is as good as its stop loss logic. If you examine my trades you can see there is no doubling downs/martingales etc.
I employee a defined hard stop, a time varying ATR based stop as well as time based exit. Due care is taken in that respect.

your question about other systems I published - Day trader on VIX is not exactly doing bad, although I expect better performance in the long run.
Currently it is ~ 45% annual return with max drawdown at 15%

I stopped day trader on stocks that traded mostly index components because I figured noone is really interested in steady 20-25% return here on collective2 :slight_smile: I ended the system in green, so noone would have lost money on that anyway. Another reason was I had to cut down number of systems to 3 due to subscription scheme of collective2. Personally I like that system as it has been the most robust and consistent system I have.

The only system that did not work well is the day trading system on gold where am at ~ -5% as of now. It is fluctuating between -10 and +10 percent in the last months. So yes that system did not go as expected, but -5% is not exactly a disaster :slight_smile:

I want to publish more systems, especially some positional ones. I would like to do that if I can finance it through exisiting systems. We will see

The last year on the market has been so bullish it’s not been good for evaluating system performance. Everyone that mostly goes long is doing well and the more leverage the better they look. When the market finally turns and gets more challenging then we’ll see who can perform and who can’t.

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Absolutely true… but hasnt that been the case for years since the crisis? I personally would like to see a year like 2008 - that has been my best trading year by a distance :slight_smile: At least a year like 2011 is highly welcome!

Other people covered most of what I would have said. Here’s my thoughts:

-I like that you are focusing on your C2 track record, not your backtest. You are right to tell people to judge you on your C2 record.
-I like that you are not doubling down on losing trades.
-I like that you are not coming on here bragging about how great your system is, and instead looking for feedback.

-I don’t like that I have no idea what you focus on in your system. Price action? trends? etc… Need more description.
-I don’t like that you are not scaling up the trade sizes as your account gets bigger. Future investors will never get returns like you’ve had unless you scale up your trading size to match your account size.
-I don’t like your $200 monthly fees. That makes me think you are in this for the quick $$$. Take it down a notch hombre.

All in all, more promise than most people that post on the forums. Good luck dude!

Thanks for those valuable comments! Answering about what you dont like -

  1. Base of system is pure trend following based on pure price action only. I use a combination of price action from the futures itself and the underlying volatility. It is long only system - so during market drops, hopefully system remains in cash. having said that , backtests shows that periods after the market drops have been the most profitable for the system. Of course you would like to see that in real.And of course there is no guarantee for any future performance

  2. scaling up - you have a valid point and it will happen in the future. Was not really sure what position sizing I should use here in collective2. I have decided in the recent weeks that it will be roughly 10000 $ / contract. and as a result max drawdown should be in region of 25% in the long run and return hopefully annual return in excess of 100%. i.e aiming for a ratio between annual return/max drowndown ~ 4. I would consider the system a success as long as that ratio is in excess of 3. (of course at the moment it is much better, thanks to the prevailing market conditions but I expect it to be in this range)

  3. I am charging 200$ because of the performance so far and also considering the higher fees from collective2 as well as what I see what I see other systems charge. ( there is plenty of cost for this as you might know - data feed (I use iqfeed), cloud infrastructure ,collective2 fees and of course my time :slight_smile: )i

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No one wants to see a year like 2008, and to state such a thing with a long only system with large draw downs on individual trades seems to be quite disingenuous. Crashes are highly welcome? Really? Be careful what you ask for… So you will try to sit on the sideline and catch the ride up when it comes? Good luck with that…Sincerely, I do wish you good luck, and at the same time hope you work on your stop loses for the sake of your subscribers…

Thanks for the feedback and wishes. I would like to know what is your idea of ‘large drawdown on individual trades’ for a system that is at the moment showing ~ 150% annual return with max drawdown of 12%? ( I checked your sytems to get a rough idea of your drawdown tolerance, but they are all private already )

My system is remaining private until determining the best way to trade some new formulas for my already over twenty-five year methodology. Your system looks just fine for now, but as we all know the markets will turn at some point and we will then have a different game. I buy and sell most commodity futures and the game is always the same, changing.

As for my statement you quoted, I had just gotten out of bed, since I live in Japan, and misread the numbers on your draw downs or would not have commented, But in review, what I said still holds true, you and your subscribers may be in for a rough road once the trend changes, hopefully you will be safe for a few years.

Thanks for correcting your comment :slight_smile:
You are absolutely right about the fact that system has not been tested by deep corrections. I dont want to get into the details of how system performed in those circumstances in past/backtest, because past/backtest is always great :smiley: I would like to show results on collective2 rather. what i can tell is system wont exactly sit on cash during those time, but being a day-trading system take advantage of the powerful intra-day rallies that is always a characteristic of deep corrections and hence beat the market performance.

I thought it is an appropriate time to ask for feedback and constructive criticism :slight_smile: as the system is a year old and just reached 100% return with less than 15% max drawdown.
It is a day trading system that trades ES and NQ intra-day.

Existing ,past and future customers and other observers ;), please provide your feedback!

Thanks
QFund

Keep up the good work, TOS, even at only 50%, is appreciated - maybe you can add TOS also to Day Trader Long short - Thanks

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Well done sir. I also like that you have reduced your fee and added some kind of description. Keep it up.

You can disregard what I said months ago above. I think keeping your trade sizing the same no matter how high your equity goes makes it easier for subscribers to scale up/down when they want to. Although it seems like you are scaling up from your description.

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Thanks Karl. I am working on the TOS. I have some business opportunity for which I need to be TOS. Btw I do trade the system on my account but not in an exact way. I have some algos turned off and on at times. I am thinking of introducing additional systems separating ES and NQ into distinct systems (while keeping the original ones in tact)

thanks @DogZebra_Investing. its difficult to get an appreciation from you - so am quity happy :wink:

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Impressed and happy for you and your subscribers.

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@futurmajic, thank you for the positive feedback.

Please also note that major part of the drawdown during the market pull back came from an ES algo , which had a wider stop and at the same time had a > 50% allocation. This has been duly taken care in the last two months as allocation to this algo has drastically reduced to just 1 contract ( as opposed to 3/4 in jan/feb) and introduction of further ES subsystem. Not to say we will not see similar drawdowns, but it will be more controlled drawdown when it happens as almost all contracts are traded with a tight stop loss. (This has had an effect of win ratio - went down from 65% to 58% - win ratio is a useless figure unless taken in the right context anyway - but performance is expected to be better) we also had a not so good result on NQ compared to ES in the past, but this also has been taken care by introduction of better subsystems. The way up to new high was powered by NQ this time. It is not my style to make frequent changes, but having realized how sensitive are customers to drawdowns and given the market condition, I felt the need to tweak the system to give importance to limit the drawdown without affecting annual return.I would say over the one year, system has gotten better. I personally never looked at systems so closely before publishing them on C2 as I was just happy to see account grow without too much delving into what could be done better. I would also like to thank all customers who has given me inputs on how to improve. Thanks!

i just started two systems that separates the ES and NQ sub systems and trades only 1 contract each with a capital requirement of only 10000 USD. I hope this will help customers to scale as they want and also cater to customers whose capital is limited/who want to start small
In additional I also started a TQQQ swing strategy that would cater to IRA accounts. ( I dont know the exact rules of IRA account, but hopefully it can trade TQQQ without restrictions.)

Nothing to show there now on the new systems , but please do keep track.

so something to show now, those new systems are on the move. Technically all set since already we had trades on them that got executed in my account as its TOS


Both above trades only 1 contract intra-day with a minimum capital requirement of 10000 USD. So scale according to your wish. recommended to trade at least with 2 contracts so that fees sort of gets hidden in the profits

and above for the IRA friendly accounts and also for who don’t want to see a drawdown > 10% - hopefully never but never say never! Trades TQQQ - won’t give you neither heart attacks nor the adrenaline :slight_smile: