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Discussion for: Leader Board Performance vs. Market

You really like numbers and stats, don’t you? :smiley:
That’s a good thing, after all trading is all about numbers and statistics, especially when it comes to the money management part.

1 Like

Yeah I mainly want to answer the question, would a subscriber do best if they followed all strategies on the popularity board, the IRA board, the TOS board, C2 Star, or Old Timers. If I had to place a bet on best overall returns over the long run I would bet on IRA Long Only or on Old Timers. I just think the propensity to blow up is too common on the others. But we will just have to wait for the data to come in.

*Obviously not suggesting people do that.

1 Like

Well it depends, each trader is different: some traders want big money fast, at any cost. Others (especially the “old timers”) prefer to earn a modest but stable income with no surprises.

LIke the tortoise and the hare, I think modest and stable wins in the long run. But we will have to wait and see.

That much is true, so keep us posted.
Thanks.

If you have any feedback let me know! Detail data can be found here: (Please Don't Comment) Detail Data Dump for Leader Board Experiment
The different time that data is exported is out of my control, but in the long run it shouldn’t matter and from now on I will try to always export on a weekend to reduce any affect from that.

I know it is super early in the experiment. But this thread displays why I think the popularity leader board will not beat the IRA leader board. Crashed Strategies. I bet most of these were on the popularity leader board, but not on the IRA leader board.

Start Chicago Time End Chicago Time Average Return
SPY 6/15 16:00 6/20 10:56 0.52%
Popular Board 6/15 20:27 6/20 8:25 -0.30%
IRA Friendly 6/16 12:44 6/20 8:43 0.37%
Old Timers 6/16 12:34 6/19 14:03 0.17%
C2 Star 6/16 11:59 6/20 9:47 0.12%
5 Likes

What becomes evident on your other thread ( (Please Don't Comment!) Log of Lessons Learned From Closed Strategies ) is that these losing systems crash and burn with just a few losing trades, and sometimes with only one!

This is something I suspected a long time ago, and your informative study just made this fact more evident.

2 Likes

On the topic of the Leader Board, is there any good reason why a strategy with a 50% maximum drawdown would be in the top 10? It seems there are plenty of much better strategies out there with a better risk adjusted return (annual return / max drawdown).

3 Likes

Edit: This strategy is now #1 on the Leader Board. Something has to be off.

1 Like

I was just interested in how it was going so I did a run. These are the results of SPY vs the leaderboard from the first day I logged it until now. Who knows what the long term holds…

Start Chicago Time End Chicago Time Average Return
SPY 6/15 20:27 7/7 14:01 2.57%
Leader Board (No Rebalance) 6/15 20:27 7/7 14:01 2.39%
3 Likes
Start Chicago Time End Chicago Time Average Return
SPY 6/15 20:27 7/9 11:01 2.00%
Leader Board (No Rebalance) 6/15 20:27 7/9 11:01 2.27%
IRA (No Rebalance) 6/16 12:03 7/9 10:00 4.85%
Old Timers (No Rebalance) 6/16 12:34 7/9 10:29 3.33%
C2 Star (No Reblance) 6/16 11:59 7/9 10:42 -0.17%

These are the results of the strategies that were on those leaderboards on June 16th. On June 20th I posted lists of those strategies here.

2 Likes

If the strategies, like those pictured below, have a half grey star that means the manager isn’t going to get the $1,000 guaranteed by C2. Is that how others interpret this? As of right now there are zero certified strategies. It seems like whenever I look there is never more than a handful that are certified for any period of time.

(Of course if they have subscribers they will get paid for that.)

1 Like

This is like a roulette bet that the house usually wins.

2 Likes

I believe the conditions to stay certified are very hard to maintain. ie a 5% rolling drawdown and also there is minimum capital utilization so it prevents low size trading.

It would be nice to have those criteria less strict but thats the way it is so I doubt there will be many c2stars that stay certified for long.

As @ETFCapital has mentioned its not a good bet.

When it comes to C2Star strategies, there are two ways a strategy can “violate” program conditions.

One way is to violate risk or loss constraints. (i.e. to lose more than $X dollars over T time).

If you violate risk/loss constraints, you are removed completely from the program, completely. There is no way to restore a strategy back into the program once it violates risk/loss constraints.

But there is a second way you can not meet C2 Star requirements. If you do not outperform the SP500 over a rolling-time basis, you are not fully complying with C2Star. In this case, you are not kicked out of the program. You simply get pushed back into “evaluation” mode. (That’s the half-star icon you see.) The point is, since the performance window is rolling, you can eventually once again outperform the SP500 over a 60-day period, and restore full C2Star certification. In the meantime, you still need to comply with risk and loss control provisions.

It’s easy to see why so many C2Star strategies are not exceeding the SP500 at this particular moment. It’s because, since post-Pandemic lows, the stock market has been rising insanely fast.

I am not sure this is a problem with the C2Star program. In fact, it may be a feature. Strategies in evaluation mode (i.e. that “half-star” icon) are still required to generate alpha, with muted risk and drawdown.

When the broader stock market returns to earth, either with a crash or a gentle descent, my hope is that C2Star strategies will prove their value.

5 Likes

That is helpful. I am still a bit uncertain on the 60 day window for outperforming by 1%.

Do you have to met that every day within the last billing period or only on one day each billing period when payment is determined?

For example, if for every rolling 60 day period ending in July the strategy outperformed the S&P by 1% and was positive except for one 60 day period ending say July 10th, would the manager get paid? Of course that is assuming that all the other metrics are met.

The manager gets paid on a pro-rated basis for the number of days he or she is fully certified. So, to take the simplest example, if the manager has achieved C2Star certification for a full 30.5 days, he is guaranteed to take home $1,000 in after-fee income, guaranteed by C2.

1 Like

Seems like a nice way to do it. Thank you for the clarification.

Okay I think I may just track the top 15 of each of the 4 leader boards I started tracking. It just takes a lot of time to check each one manually. If anyone wants to do more the data is available here.

Name Return
SPY 2.98%
C2 Star -0.73%
Popular -0.78%
Old Timers 4.79%
IRA Friendly 6.43%

Strategies were selected on 6/16/2020 and monitored through to 7/25/2020. There was no re-balancing of the strategies.

It is obviously too early to tell the long term results but that is pretty interesting start.

  • Full disclosure I run an IRA friendly strategy myself, but don’t want to directly market my strategy, which is why I am posting under this unrelated account. I just honestly believe that in the long run futures and forex strategies are prone to using too much leverage and shooting themselves in the foot.
2 Likes

It has been approximately 3 months since I started tracking the top 15 strategies on various leader boards. I am now re-balancing this hypothetical portfolio. Below is a table for the summary of results for the first 3 months of results. Also below is a table with the details of this last 3 months and a table declaring what strategies I will be tracking for the next three month period.

% Return
POPULARITY 15 -0.97%
C2 Star 15 1.41%
IRA 15 8.63%
OLD TIMERS 15 9.98%
SPY 6.74%
SPY w/ Dividends 7.21%

Please let me know if you have any thoughts comments or suggestions. Definitely let me know if you spot any errors. I think if the results continue in a similar patter, C2 should consider putting more focus on Old Timers and IRA friendly strategies. Also, if there is any way C2 could develop a plan that would allow subscribers to spread smaller accounts across a basket of strategies such as old timers or IRA friendly would be very interesting. Say I have only $30,000 available to allocate to C2. I would much rather distribute $2,000 to each of the top 15 Old Timer strategies for a reasonable fee than pay $100 or so to each of the 15 strategies. I realize there are plenty of limitations such as no asset under management fee etc. So there may be no way to do such a thing, but if there was a way to implement such a program I think it could be very popular. Perhaps too popular for too little money though. I have no idea.

Board Category Order Start End Start $ End $ Return % Link to Strategy
IRA 1 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $106,076 $121,262 14.32% https://collective2.com/details/123937705
IRA 2 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $31,806 $34,674 9.02% https://collective2.com/details/125401215
IRA 3 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $21,376 $22,205 3.88% https://collective2.com/details/106004078
IRA 4 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $80,438 $92,204 14.63% https://collective2.com/details/106804598
IRA 5 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $83,706 $90,028 7.55% https://collective2.com/details/123261809
IRA 6 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $64,180 $72,708 13.29% https://collective2.com/details/106187009
IRA 7 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $331,988 $416,370 25.42% https://collective2.com/details/126054331
IRA 8 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $38,227 $48,099 25.82% https://collective2.com/details/107529017
IRA 9 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $58,844 $53,697 -8.75% https://collective2.com/details/77331265
IRA 10 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $13,670 $14,610 6.88% https://collective2.com/details/124277653
IRA 11 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $32,459 $37,892 16.74% https://collective2.com/details/117734561
IRA 12 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $12,719 $11,740 -7.70% https://collective2.com/details/123152690
IRA 13 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $159,644 $154,515 -3.21% https://collective2.com/details/119193310
IRA 14 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $30,553 $32,456 6.23% https://collective2.com/details/124463618
IRA 15 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $29,193 $30,749 5.33% https://collective2.com/details/124994120
Old Timers 1 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $144,192 $150,607 4.45% https://collective2.com/details/102427283
Old Timers 2 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $69,588 $80,132 15.15% https://collective2.com/details/106901765
Old Timers 3 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $80,869 $95,716 18.36% https://collective2.com/details/106600099
Old Timers 4 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $21,376 $22,205 3.88% https://collective2.com/details/106004078
Old Timers 5 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $80,089 $92,204 15.13% https://collective2.com/details/106804598
Old Timers 6 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $108,634 $130,330 19.97% https://collective2.com/details/111648302
Old Timers 7 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $64,242 $72,670 13.12% https://collective2.com/details/106187009
Old Timers 8 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $38,227 $48,099 25.82% https://collective2.com/details/107529017
Old Timers 9 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $408,909 $392,825 -3.93% https://collective2.com/details/100707640
Old Timers 10 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $58,844 $53,697 -8.75% https://collective2.com/details/77331265
Old Timers 11 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $27,500 $28,000 1.82% https://collective2.com/details/77330504
Old Timers 12 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $498,305 $530,748 6.51% https://collective2.com/details/75800796
Old Timers 13 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $275,037 $276,927 0.69% https://collective2.com/details/77477692
Old Timers 14 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $239,000 $285,643 19.52% https://collective2.com/details/94025749
Old Timers 15 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $24,180 $28,517 17.94% https://collective2.com/details/104952602
Popularity 1 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $48,044 $47,960 -0.17% https://collective2.com/details/127328382
Popularity 2 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $45,403 $42,605 -6.16% https://collective2.com/details/127484605
Popularity 3 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $65,454 $65,588 0.20% https://collective2.com/details/126548162
Popularity 4 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $22,404 $21,702 -3.13% https://collective2.com/details/125587405
Popularity 5 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $50,125 $51,369 2.48% https://collective2.com/details/124283622
Popularity 6 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $45,589 $48,848 7.15% https://collective2.com/details/125624499
Popularity 7 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $55,151 $54,281 -1.58% https://collective2.com/details/123071731
Popularity 8 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $77,563 $78,697 1.46% https://collective2.com/details/123007535
Popularity 9 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $55,651 $49,199 -11.59% https://collective2.com/details/123472063
Popularity 10 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $172,589 $143,292 -16.98% https://collective2.com/details/117442067
Popularity 11 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $118,045 $107,448 -8.98% https://collective2.com/details/125206069
Popularity 12 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $36,730 $37,776 2.85% https://collective2.com/details/124332528
Popularity 13 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $143,890 $150,674 4.71% https://collective2.com/details/102427283
Popularity 14 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $49,429 $53,336 7.90% https://collective2.com/details/127108876
Popularity 15 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $66,256 $71,121 7.34% https://collective2.com/details/125284205
C2 Star 1 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $50,653 $53,387 5.40% https://collective2.com/details/128203378
C2 Star 2 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $46,799 $49,272 5.28% https://collective2.com/details/123562056
C2 Star 3 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $50,807 $51,215 0.80% https://collective2.com/details/123458321
C2 Star 4 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $49,429 $53,336 7.90% https://collective2.com/details/127108876
C2 Star 5 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $50,945 $68,432 34.33% https://collective2.com/details/128842482
C2 Star 6 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $46,059 $47,458 3.04% https://collective2.com/details/127124102
C2 Star 7 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $47,451 $47,960 1.07% https://collective2.com/details/127328382
C2 Star 8 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $51,947 $50,332 -3.11% https://collective2.com/details/127023995
C2 Star 9 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $47,500 $47,900 0.84% https://collective2.com/details/126079605
C2 Star 10 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $51,364 $40,927 -20.32% https://collective2.com/details/129347661
C2 Star 11 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $50,583 $51,331 1.48% https://collective2.com/details/128210434
C2 Star 12 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $55,811 $49,199 -11.85% https://collective2.com/details/123472063
C2 Star 13 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $51,161 $49,860 -2.54% https://collective2.com/details/129227408
C2 Star 14 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $50,125 $51,369 2.48% https://collective2.com/details/124283622
C2 Star 15 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $51,392 $49,489 -3.70% https://collective2.com/details/128042302
SPY 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $313 $334 6.74% https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history?period1=1583971200&period2=1599868800&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d
SPY w dividends 6/16/2020 9/12/2020 $312 $334 7.21% https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history?period1=1583971200&period2=1599868800&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d
Board Category Order Start End Start $ End $ Return % Link to Strategy
Popularity 1 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/128871252
Popularity 2 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/123909762
Popularity 3 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/106600099
Popularity 4 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/128265049
Popularity 5 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/106901765
Popularity 6 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/128743489
Popularity 7 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/126434247
Popularity 8 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/127124102
Popularity 9 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/128731010
Popularity 10 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/128843892
Popularity 11 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/125284205
Popularity 12 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/124283622
Popularity 13 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/127764619
Popularity 14 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/128210434
Popularity 15 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/123007535
TOS 1 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/123909762
TOS 2 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/128265049
TOS 3 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/126434247
TOS 4 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/128133665
TOS 5 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/128022277
TOS 6 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/127841340
TOS 7 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/123937705
TOS 8 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/128415506
TOS 9 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/129086277
TOS 10 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/129317332
TOS 11 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/129109805
TOS 12 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/102427283
TOS 13 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/117442067
TOS 14 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/126923746
TOS 15 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/124277653
IRA 1 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/126054331
IRA 2 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/123937705
IRA 3 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/106004078
IRA 4 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/107529017
IRA 5 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/117734561
IRA 6 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/124994120
IRA 7 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/77477692
IRA 8 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/124978054
IRA 9 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/123231599
IRA 10 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/124277653
IRA 11 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/124343595
IRA 12 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/120610209
IRA 13 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/77331265
IRA 14 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/105498828
IRA 15 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/104155140
C2 Star 1 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/128825624
C2 Star 2 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/130960459
C2 Star 3 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/125624499
C2 Star 4 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/130623196
C2 Star 5 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/128203378
C2 Star 6 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/130949672
C2 Star 7 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/127124102
C2 Star 8 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/126043352
C2 Star 9 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/130893898
C2 Star 10 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/129227408
C2 Star 11 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/123458321
C2 Star 12 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/130705804
C2 Star 13 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/131030893
C2 Star 14 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/128042302
C2 Star 15 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/130650608
Old Timers 1 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/106600099
Old Timers 2 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/106901765
Old Timers 3 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/106004078
Old Timers 4 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/81877382
Old Timers 5 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/104952602
Old Timers 6 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/107529017
Old Timers 7 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/111648302
Old Timers 8 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/102427283
Old Timers 9 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/77477692
Old Timers 10 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/100314882
Old Timers 11 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/100707640
Old Timers 12 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/77331265
Old Timers 13 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/87581363
Old Timers 14 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/105498828
Old Timers 15 9/12/2020 TBD TBD TBD TBD https://collective2.com/details/104155140
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