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I’ve been active on C2 for several years now, and I found myself wondering, “Am I bad at picking strategies in general, or is my stomach just too weak for C2?”.
After doing some back-of-the-envelope research, it appears that I am the latter: I’m kind-of OK at picking strategies, I am just bad at sticking with them when things get rough.
Here is a visual for you. These are all of the strategies I’ve subscribed to in the past. Green line is when I entered, red is when I left. The left column shows all the strategies where I would have won had I not prematurely exited. The right shows all the strategies where I was wise to exit.
How about everyone else here? Anyone have similar results as me?
Very interesting stuff! Do you happen to have it in data table format. Something along the lines of what the returns were during subscribing and after could be interesting to analyze. I’d also be interested to hear more about your methodology when picking strategies.
Sadly, no, my research methodology was a “take screenshot, draw lines, repeat”.
And I certainly didn’t have a consistent strategy selection methodology throughout. But from past experience, I generally rule out any strategy that:
doesn’t TOS
had big peaks in leverage, particularly at the start
has a lot of small-win trades and a weird smooth returns graph (suggests scalping / Martingale)
has little to no trade history based on real auto-trade data (I always ignore simulated history)
sends me a message in C2 asking me to subscribe (I’m surprised C2 even allows this)
I also prefer strategies that trade stocks (rather than options or futures), so strategies that rank highly on the “IRA friendly" leaderboard are more interesting to me than those ranked highly on the “popular“ leaderboard.
@seymore_strongboy I took a closer look at the systems in the image – it looked like most of them 1) are not TOS, 2) have big peaks in leverage and 3) have indicators of Martingale. Have you changed your selection methodology since then?
I sure have! Yes, I should make this clear: the pic above reflects a history of picking strategies with a bunch of ever-changing methodologies. My current methodology (in text above) doesn’t have much history to share yet.
I’m glad to hear that. I think you should be glad you got out of some of those systems when you did, even if you would have made money. Several have a lot of hidden risks.
Regarding your original question, if the system you subscribe to has a reasonable amount of history (preferably a year or more) then you should be prepared to ride it out at least until the system makes a new max percentage drawdown and then re-evaluate. If you’re not willing to ride out the drawdowns, then you’ll likely find yourself riding more drawdowns between systems and hurting your performance. Of course, if the manager starts changing their strategy then you should get out then.
Whenever I’m searching for a new system, I do tend to look through my latest leaderboard first. I have not had to search for a new system lately, which would seem to indicate that the systems I have chosen have been working well.
It’s worth noting that I only subscribe to 3 of the top 12 systems in the default leaderboard, while I subscribe to 6 of the top 12 from my “WorkInProgress” leaderboard. Also, all of the other 6 are ones that I would consider trading if I had spare trading capital, while I definitely cannot say the same thing about all of the other 9 systems in the default leaderboard. I’ve attached the screenshots of both to show which ones I’m subscribed to.
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Re the https://collective2.com/details/138839383 strategy’s paid listing shown at the top of @GaryLynn2’s Official C2 Leaderboard screenshot above, I can’t grasp why the developer chose to pay to have it “featured” when there are so many demonstrably better ones on C2, nor can I grasp why it nonetheless has subscribers while my Vesuvius has none. ~OG
[Edit: This post has been edited to improve clarity.]
That screenshot you are referring to is not from my leaderboard – it is from the default leaderboard. It is also at the top because it is a “Featured Strategy”, which I’m assuming that implies that the SM paid to have it listed at the top (just like “Sponsored” items appear at the top of Google searches).
Sorry Gary – I thought it was clear from context that my reference was to the default C2 Leaderboard screenshot in your post. I did not mean to imply in any sense that the strategy of which I wrote met your personal selection criteria. ~OG
[Edit: I have edited my remarks in post#13 above above to improve clarity.]
I think Shakespeare’s Polonius has some advice which might be relevant in this context:
Those friends thou hast, and their adoption tried, Grapple them unto thy soul with hoops of steel, But do not dull thy palm with entertainment Of each new-hatched, unfledged comrade.
Astonishing Investment Performance: Our trading strategies consistently achieve remarkable returns, allowing you to enjoy the fruits of the market.
Genuine and Transparent: We provide openly transparent and reliable trading information with no hidden agendas.
One-Click Follow: An easy-to-use interface for effortlessly following my trades, making money while you relax.