For every action there is a reaction

Hello fellow traders! What an incredible week we had. Just
when one thinks the markets can’t get any crazier, Swiss associated
pairs go ballistic. Luckily zero parameters were met to signal a
position in any of the Swiss currency pairs.Whether this was just luck
or this happened because my strategy somehow ‘knew’ not to be in those
pairs I really don’t know. I think what happened was my strategy waits
for specific situations within pairs so the price will move rapidly in a
given direction, and perhaps the Swiss National Bank (SNB) also knew
these situations existed and timed the information release to take
advantage of this. Hence a move that magnified beyond most imaginations.
The Swiss Franc moved 17% on average against the Eur, Gbp, Usd, Aud,
Cad, Jpy. This in turn moved the Eur which is direct competition, an
average of 8%. By the grace of a higher force we have been
blessed (hopefully) with the parameters having been met to buy the
Eur/jpy pair. First the pair has sold off so much, I can not imagine
there are any more traders able to push the price lower, nor is there anymore
stops to be run (if you believe in that). Reading over other traders
forecasts on the Eur/jpy, it looks like most of them are calling for a
push lower, talk about missing the boat! I could see being scared to
trade the Swiss Franc and maybe the Euro, but calling for a push lower
seems improbable. Helping out our positioning early this
morning, Germany’s Bundesbank announced the continuation of
repatriations of gold from London, New york and Paris. Bundesbank
specifically declared 120 tonnes of gold was transferred from Paris and
New York, 35 & 85 tonnes. To me, this seems as though this
informational press release was done to reassure the world that the Euro
has a solid foundation and to help recoup some of the massive sell off
that just happened. Looking at charts, the start of the rebound seems to
coincide perfectly with the time I believe the information release was
made. Along with this information, a repatriation timeline, table was
also released further showing their commitment to stabilizing the
Eurozone. In case you have been living under a rock, the
European Central Bank (ECB) is meeting Thursday January 22 over deposit
rates, refinancing rates and a bond purchasing program. This program
would consist of purchasing €550 billion ($640 billion) of bonds, independently through each nations national bank, the purchases
will represent 20-25% of the individual nations debt. Greece will be
excluded since their bonds do not met the minimum criteria. If this bond
purchasing happens, which is most likely, I think the Euro could get
incredibly strong against the other major currencies and create a
massive up swing for our long Eur/Jpy trade. Let’s cross our fingers. Let’s go ahead and keep holding our position, hope for the best and reconvene tomorrow or later this week.

What made you think that QE by the ECB would strengthen the Euro? The consensus of economist was that the opposite would likely happen - as it did in a massive way. Your comments might have induced some traders to open a very bad long position in the Euro or close a very profitable short position.

Karl, we could argue until we’re blue in the face, the fact is no one really knew what was going to happen. The ECB could have come in with less support or more support as they did, nothing I read called this as probable. There has been multiple variables within these past few weeks and a lot of well seasoned traders have been burned. Yes in hindsight as you wrote on the 23rd, it is easy to pick out flaws in my position, but ultimately it’s about who’s going to be profitable over the long haul.
Who could have made the call about the Swiss National Bank or the Canadians?
I know one thing, I lost -2.9% on that Eur/jpy trade and am currently holding the following positions as I type this. Long the following Aud/jpy +0.71%, Eur/chf +2.48%, Gbp/chd +2.89%, Gbp/jpy +1.13%, Usd/chf +2.29%, Usd/jpy +0.53%
So after an insane last few weeks, I think I am doing alright.
Have a great day.

Well, it just did not seem the right thing to do for a low risk system but congratulations for the recent spikes, especially for your other system.
All the best.