Hi what are some good forex systems? i need one with a stop that has a quantifiable risk level for each trade.
Prefer shorter duration trades. Prefer trading forex only and prefer automated rules versus human determined.
A quick research yielded https://collective2.com/details/94987184 as the best forex only system on this site with considerable track record length.
BUT there are some posts in the forum about the system holding losing trades for a very long time (no stop). It doesn´t add to them but it´s generally not a good trading habit, especially in a momentum based system. However, the system managed to have only 25% maximum equity drawdown which considers open positions. So it works somehow.
Another positive is the average trade target in pips. It´s large enough that slippage doesn´t eat up most of your profits.
If I were you - and would exclusively look for a forex system - I´d wait and watch if it can recover 50% of the current sharp drawdown. Only then I´d enter.
But honestly, you have way better stock systems on this site, so why trading forex…
Before you ask why I didn´t mention the following system which seems to be better at first look… https://collective2.com/details/77121403
Well, inspect the trade record. This system scales in and out of trades in steps of 1 minilot on a 500k account. That means you either need a huge account to follow or you will overleverage your small account and eventually blow up.
Aside from that, how much trust could you put in a Demo system that charges 0 fee?
I personally think it´s worth what it charges…
In a stock system isnt slippage much more of an issue? id like to start with below 25k in an account and forex has mini lots so id like to start with a very low amount of $ and scale it up if it works well. Forex has more leverage
In before I remove Forex out of my platform. Attracting way too many bottom feeders. I don’t know why and what it is with the Forex industry, but it is not even worth it with the subscribers. I was going to say my system, but I might give up the Forex end soon, anyhow.
@MatthewCox2 If the system doesn´t trade penny stocks then slippage is usually no issue for a stock system. And I haven´t seen any stock system trading penny stocks on this site so far.
With good conscience I can recommend the below listed stock systems. The good thing about stocks is that you can scale them smoothly kind of like forex systems. Generally speaking. And stock systems tend to perform more stable in the long run. This is likely due to the fact that you can´t leverage that much with stocks. But the first concern of any trader or subscriber should not be leverage and abnormal returns but to survive and get reasonable, consistent returns year after year. Those who understand this and can manage to achieve it are the 5% long term winners in the markets. If you can manage to get “just” 20%p.a. on average you´ll be in the top 1-2% of all traders I assume. So keep that in mind. Stay in touch with reality and you´ll eventually get where you want to be financially instead of burning your account.
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JFT is in max DD right now, emailing the developer his answer was that it will self correct over time…that forex markets were range bound… just so long as I have enough reserves. Hmmm…that’s how they’ve done it for years, and that patience was part of the game, and that a 25% DD was standard and should not worry the investor so long they scaled appropriately.
I don’t know what to do. He has a long history, he is not beyond his Max DD and cutting at Max DD is not smart. But the lack of a target beyond which to stop a loss worries me.
Forex markets have indeed become more and more quiet in the last months. 2016 was way more volatile and 2015 even more than 2016.
This is not an excuse for a drawdown. A good system just takes less trades at such times. If the system was only tested on active periods, then yes it can be a problem. No one can tell how long will it be until volatility picks up.
The first sentence is accurate.
The second (“It doesn’t add to them…”) is not. It does add to losing trades.
Thanks for clarification jozsika, seems like it slipped my mind.
I didn´t do a complete analysis of that system anyways because, as I mentioned before, I´m no friend of forex systems at collective2 for various reasons.
There are better opportunities within this site.
@GuillaumeDebauchez if cutting a system at or beyond its maxDD is not smart, at what point would you consider it being smart?
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Yes, this is on his web-site too and this doesn’t make a lot of sense. [I asked him about this, but he didn’t reply.]
What does this mean? That forex markets don’t make new high/lows (i.e. don’t break out of the range)? Ever? Or no new 10 minute hi/lo? 10 day? 10 week? 10 year? Obviously none of this is true. [Case in point: AUD/NZD made a new 52 week high EXACTLY when he went short. But it wasn’t a new 5 year high. So what?]
Or they trade in a range longer than… (than what??) And what range? Daily? Weekly? Monthly?
Snake oil.
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Yes, I know, it’s not comfortable, although his trade record is good.
I use his model as a truly uncorrelated one to the others. But I’m not fully comfortable and I think I’ll get out on the next high.
@Aaa123 Well its a real good question. I guess trading anything one wants to buy low and sell high. Selling low something that has a high chance of gaining value isn’t great.
There is no right or wrong answer I suppose. For me, I cut down a system at max DD when that system has misbehaved by breaking its rules. And my plan right now is to use systems that have some longevity (ultimately over time we will have more and more such systems to chose from, but there are already quite a few), so that I can trust the ability of the owner to recuperate from a DD.
Ideally then I can make a decision to get out (like now for JFT), but action it only later.
Same seeing a nice system on a high, well best wait for an inevitable dip, and then get on.
This is all theory and I’ve not achieved this very well yet, just trying to improve like many others.
There is no such thing as a “quiet” Forex market, there are ALWAYS at least two or more highly trending currency pairs at any given time, regardless of the time frame used.
And there are 28 different currency pairs to choose from, just from the 8 majors (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF, NZD).
The same thing can be said about the stock and the Futures markets of course.
Here are a few examples, look at these mega moves on the GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, EUR/AUD and GBP/NZD from January 1, 2017. (we are talking about 1500 to 2000 pip moves here folks, just in the last 5 months!):
https://s13.postimg.org/lahccfxlj/eur-aud-2017.png
https://s1.postimg.org/6odlkk8un/gbp-aud-2017.png
https://s17.postimg.org/c7o4syju7/gbp-cad-2017.png
https://s7.postimg.org/ixf40xgfv/gbp-nzd-2017.png
The trick is to concentrate ONLY on (and trade) these fast moving currencies (or stocks, commodities, etc…), and forget the rest (using simple trend-following and/or breakout techniques for example).
But one thing is for sure as far as trading is concerned: there is ALWAYS something going on somewhere, no matter what time frame we are using.
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Yes there is such a thing as more and less quiet markets.
If your system is always able to find the more volatile pair and your strategy is that flexible that it can successfully trade each and every pair, with a good risk profile, then yes, you are right. Do you have verified results to such a system?
Just showing trends from the past means nothing, it’s hindsight. I can give you 1000 trades you could take in the past and turn a $10,000 account into a million dollars in a year by looking at historical charts. You need to do better than that.
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