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"Just Forex Trades" - Discussion

I’m starting this thread a place for subscribers of ‘Just Forex Trades’ to discuss the strategy.
The trade leader Jay seems to have a reputation for little to no communication with his subscribers of which there seems to be some 80 odd. The strategy and its merits or otherwise are discussed in other threads and it is not my intention to revisit those here except to acknowledge that his approach runs some counter to the conventional wisdom of ‘let profits run and cut losses short’ yet it does have an impressive track record and has netted many subscribers good returns.
HOWEVER, due to the approach employed by the trade leader the strategy is currently carrying a very toxic position which in my view combined with the trade leader’s approach threatens its very existence.

I’m interested to hear from other subscribers who actually have money on the line (some quite a lot!) how they adopt Just Forex Trades and how closely they adhere to the trades thrown out by the system.

Do you stick with the bad trades through thick and thin?
Do you have your own limits/stop losses on the trades?
Do you use a stop loss against the system?

What are you doing right now with the EURAUD trade?

2 Likes

I’ve been wondering about what’s going on with this strategy. I was interested in subscribing to it, and was moving some money around to do so, but looking at it right now is terrifying.

55% drawdown? In a couple of weeks?

Usually it’s the strategies with the super high win rates that add to losing positions that are the most dangerous. Strategies with lower win rates and tend to be less riskier. This guy had over $300,000 in the model portfolio and has followers trading at 2x and 3x.

I’m still in this current position. I don’t know what else to do. It’s already moved 80-85% of the distance it needs to go for a margin call. I almost pulled the plug earlier and now wish I had. I figure I either take the full loss (soon-ish) or it begins to swing back.

The upside is that I reduced my position significantly 4 months ago … and planned to do that every year or so as I knew it was high risk. What I took off the table after 10-11 months is still more than I can lose on this current drawdown … which I guess keeps me from completely losing my mind over it.

My takeaway from both this and another system is that some C2 strategies aren’t holding up well with a more volatile market. A tough lesson.

I’ve been in the a few months and initially was pulling away from these ‘wayward’ trades fairly early, waiting for them to go ‘peak pear shape’ then following them back down. Had a couple of very nice wins that way but after watching these trades always come back I got lazy and sat on this one much longer than I should have in hindsight. Still in profit for the period but the number is not looking nearly as exciting as it did a month ago!:weary: Still it’s about 30% ahead of SPX today!:joy:
Lesson learned I guess.
I’m a bit worried though that Jay will simply let this one trade take down the strategy…:grimacing:

When “Trading FX” started in May 2019 with 150K “Just Forex Trades” also had about the same balance, it seemed like they had a competition going and for a long time were running neck to neck. Today “Trading FX” ended at 265.5K whereas “Just Forex Trades” ended at 147.9K. As the developer from “Ethos Swing” said, a bear market like this will show who the good traders are.

Holding onto a thread of hope for the EUR to reverse are posts like this:

Overall, most projections are for it to turn around. I’m not saying their logic is correct, but one can hope.

The high of today put it -1703 pips.

I think chris_bayley is correct in that this one trade might take it down. Jay always lets things ride … and at this point, I don’t see any other choice. There should have been a point of exit. I had my own strategy stop loss, but failed to do it … telling myself I should allow it more room since things are so volatile.

This guy has massive drawdowns in some trades which is a warning sign that one day a single trade will wipe out an account. Just check the drawdown column for this strategy.

This guy reminds me of another trader who had an incredible win record but huge drawdowns as well. I forget the name of the strategy but he had an incredible following.

Be careful of strategies that don’t use stops.

p.s. I just remembered the strategy was called ‘Bijagual’

The people who purchased this system knew what they were getting into or they didn’t do the proper due diligence before investing. I only had to go back a few months in his past trades to see one trade with a 43.87% intra-trade drawdown! Eventually one trade will blow him up, maybe this trade maybe not

1 Like

Yeah, I mostly knew what I was getting into … and scaled down multiple times to the point where I can lose everything and still come out with an overall 60% gain over 15 months.

It’s still rough mentally, though, and I appreciate the thread to sort of process …

2 Likes

I’ve noticed that the current c2 score system has been quite at predicting which systems are too risky. At one time they calculated c2 score in a different way and Just Forex was even one of the top ranked systems. I think now C2 looks at things like how long a losing position is kept open and also compares how much a system lets a position drift into loss versus how much on average the position drifts into profit.

There are many systems with high rates that let their positions drift into 5-10 % loss but close their position at max 2-3% profit. Some of these systems even keep a decent max drawdown ( under 30% ) for a long while before the eventual crash.

One thing is for sure, the EUR/AUD is on fire, short sellers who faded this huge up move are probably busy dealing with margin calls now, no doubt.

His other system, Forex Aggressive Risk, is down 92%. In the past it always recovered - will it this time?

If someone is courageous enough to jump in when this turns around, he’ll be half a millionaire before too long.

That is, if this turns around.

What’s happening with the grid / c2 scoring?? it’s showing this system with c2 score of 998 and as the top system.

Well, the trade will have to turn at some point but the question is will there be any system left when it does? How will Jay react to this collapse of his system?
It’s had such a good record for so long it seems a shame to let this happen to it. The system would have been damn near as profitable up to this point if max losses had been limited to 15%dd per position, and the win rate would still be 90% at that.
:weary:

If I understand correctly, this trading system is currently short EUR/AUD. Just today (from midnight New York City time) this currency made a huge 1 000 pip move up, and still counting, a rare event indeed. This could explain the drawdown the system is experiencing.

Mean reverting systems can be profitable for a very long time, unless they encounter a “black swan” event that goes outside the parameters of their algorithms.

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Yeah, that would have been nice…

As it now stands the 4-5 year run is at -100%.

That is why systems like this should only be subscribed to if they are TOS certified. If he had had his own money at risk I don’t think he would have stayed in the short EUR/AUD position till the bitter end. “Trading FX” was also short the same pair but being TOS he was smart enough to bail out before it was too late.

I wonder how many subs stayed till the bitter end ??? :sob: :sob:

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