Thanks for looking. I could say more but I admit it would be very hard for anyone to believe. So I’ll just let my system do the talking for me.
To be or not to be… Too hard question!
There are many reasons to stay in Collective2. Some can be:
1 To have an independent documentation to show to some investment funds or some bank that can become client.
2 To use the performance in C2 as benchmark for yourself.
3 To measure yourself with other vendors, so you can have an idea of the reality.
In this moment, our best system has a Sharpe ratio of 1.412 gains 61446$ out of 100000$ from starting 3/7/2006 (C2 says that it is gaining 39.2% compound annual, but this is unexplicable) and there is a max dd as 15.58%.
We have no customers in this moment. We ask $39 in a week if gaining.
All I can say is "occassionaly a blilnd sow will find an acorn"
I think part of the reason why your system does not have any subscribers is that you have too many other systems out here that don’t perform well. Part of the reason is probably also that the frequency of trades is very high with a very small profit per trade. As such it is difficult to determine how slippage and transaction cost will affect the results. At least in my case these are the two primary reasons for not subscribing.
Or my favorite… Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
I just want to make sure I understand you. Are you saying it’s highly improbable that I’m a very good trader, or just simply impossible.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. - ibid.
It has nothing to do with you in particular. It’s an assertion that just about every system is a winner during optimum market cycles (as defined by the criteria the system uses to place trades). It’s not my place to judge your trading system or methodology… fo that there’s C2.
By the way, if you end up with a winning system that collapeses after six months, I still applaude you because that in itself has intrinsic value to me. Riding the wave of systems tuned to a particular market cycle is one way to profit from all this, in much the same way as mutual fund switching tends to try and capture same.
To the person who chimed in earlier (in another thread) with the statement about “today’s high return funds are tomorrows worst performers” - If that’s all you know, then it will never work for you and I suggest you stick to treasury certficates. But for those of us who know how to measure industry group volatility and (more importantly) rate of change, we’ll stick to investing in high performers until their ROC curve starts to taper off.
Gentlemen,
My take on this issue is that one of the reasons many systems can’t get a whole lot of people to subscribe is that many people have been burned already and are gunshy. I used to work on wall street and know that it is quite possible to make in excess of 100% a year (as many of the traders working for the big firms accomplish). I personally made 145% last year and 110% the year before that and this year so far I am up 35% in my personal read “Real” money account. There definetely are systems out there that can make some serious money, but there aren’t that many and there are way too many flashes in the pan. Quite honestly though, if someone’s system is as good as their results say it is, they should be making plenty of money for themselves (as I am) and shouldn’t worry so much about subscribers. If you truly are good, and build a consistent track record, “they will come”. Just my take on it.
"To the person who chimed in earlier (in another thread) with the statement about “today’s high return funds are tomorrows worst performers” - If that’s all you know, then it will never work for you and I suggest you stick to treasury certficates."
I said that inexperienced investors often choose mutual funds based upon recent performance. Mutual funds with recent high returns often have poor future performance.
Good luck with your multi-system timing. Hope it works for you.
Michael - I have a few questions. Are you making money on stocks (work on Wall street)? Do you trade a mechanical system? Do you use contacts on Wall Street to make money?
Michael - Thanks for offering a reality-check to those who think that my criteria of prox 100% return per annum is unreasonable (with all the other criteria that I threw in, incorporated herein as if fully set forth).
Instead of saying “I am personally unable to achieve those type of returns” most people tend to say “I can’t achieve them, so therefore you can’t either… and neither can anyone else.”
Hmm - the phrasing of "our head trader, Michael" in your description comes across as kind of suspiciously odd. Does it take a fleet of traders to post a C2 signal? You are unlikely to have enough subscribers here to run a corporation… 
lol
"too many other systems out here that don’t perform well."
That is almost an understatement. Most systems are well below the S&P 500. The ones that are above, have pretty rotten APDs on average (I think I saw 0.07, 0.12, 0.28). So, even the systems that appear well look like Hang on & Hope to me (they are all drawdown). I didn’t really look at the other indicators, but I suppose they are not that golden.
How in the world Seleukos got a rating of 995 does not bode well for the rest of the systems here.
(and unfortunately there will probably be a rant, but truth is truth (sorry, Sam)
Michael Crowder
You know I trust to anybody on his/her word
I used to work on wall street and know that it is quite possible to make in excess of 100% a year
It’s possible in general for retailer trader.
I personally made 145% last year and 110% the year before that and this year so far I am up 35% in my personal read “Real” money account.
Sure. Why not? Would you care to share with us your peak-to-valley DD for the great years of profit?
Lew Payne
who think that my criteria of prox 100% return per annum is unreasonable
Well. It’s achievable in general and personally I think that your approach of building black boxes to a system will lead to the result. However there is “trick or treat” from your side.
Eu
Lew -
If I do recall your decree was for a system with 8% minimum per month regardless of market conditions. When you compound the results and consider 8% as a minimum then you should achieve significantly more than 100% per annum.
Besides, if you are so adept at playing multiple systems and filtering good signals from bad then why do you trade other people’s systems to begin with? It seems to me you should be smart enough to come up with your own killer system. Or don’t I understand what you are doing?
As for reality check - let’s see how Michael’s track record plays out over a year or two.
As for wall street, my recollection is that random dart throwing has outperformed the wall street gurus most years. There are many ways to make significant money on Wall Street - pumping IPOs, insider trading, pre-buying broker recommendations, etc. Some of these guys are doing it from their jail cells now.
Steve,
I no longer work on wall street. I did for many years however. When the war broke out, I enlisted in the US Army and am currently still serving. I do not use a mechanical system per se, however, it wouldn’t be that hard to program most of what I am looking at (I actually do use a program to drastically narrow down the number of stocks I need to look at each night). I am not currently using any of my old contacts to make money as I have proven that you don’t need them. I do recommend keeping a close eye on the market (if you can) and what people are saying and what the overall indexes look like from a technical perspective. You can gain a lot of insight through listening and watching what people are saying (and even more so, what they may not be saying). I am not going to lie, when I was a professional trader, it was easier to make money b/c I had guys on the NYSE floor who could tell me about the action down on the floor and sometimes that could give you a really good idea about what was happening. I hope this helps!
Michael
Of course, as I said in my first post, if i needed the subscibers to make a living, I am worthless as a trader… (my opinion)
Michael
Sure,
The drawdowns were never that bad b/c I use tight stops and have carried arond an 80% acuracy rate in picking winners for many years now. I thin my worst draw down ever was around 15% and man I was sweating!! lol
Michael
Of course, that was after several years of learning how to trade (during that time, I wiped myself out a couple of times
In addition to those stocks in my collective 2 account, I am currently still holding MER (from $81.99) and we just sold SLB (bought at $62-sold at $76.10). We made about 3% on UA (would have made much more, but got tired of waiting Those are the most recent picks (ie within the last couple of weeks). Feel free to sign up for a free trial if you want to watch what we do more closely. Then if you don’t like it, feel free to cancel; doesn’t bother me as I will continue to trade an make money for myself and others. Have a good night all!!!
Michael
