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I could not disagree more..... 40 days vs 57 minutes

so I have a sub email this to me… what he sees when he subscribes

“when a strategy holds a position, despite the trade’s losing money, and waits for it to eventually turn into a profit, we say that it shows a high ratio of ‘Adverse Excursion’ to trade profits”

WTF…

wrong…

avg trade duration 57 minutes

Avg win
$519.85

Avg loss
$138.08

avg draw down on every trade less than .4%, yes, POINT .4% of account model

up 13.4% to date with 4.1% draw down

IMO, it’s as close to perfect as one can get

every trade gets a tight stop, hold and pray? I think not… you have me confused with others who have 80% hit rate and eventually crash everyone’s account

and then suggest a strategy with and avg trade duration of 40 DAYS…40 DAYS vs 57 MINUTES!!!.. with 3X the draw down

and another with trade duration of 14.8 days, 3X the draw down, and hasn’t made money in 3 months

yeah, good luck with any of that

whatever

apologies for my obvious annoyance … maybe the decimal is in the wrong place and should be .21… or maybe someone can splain it to the masses… or maybe its just some sort of statistical anomaly… thank you C2, at least Micro Manager can recieve some views from this… M

I created “Micro Manager” 6 weeks ago after the crash, when the market got too wild for my other strategy “Art of War” … which boasts similar numbers and was absolutely on fire prior to the crash; it will be back on track shortly…both are crash proof…I really don’t feel the need to self promote, as I believe the smart money will find me; but I do feel the need to defend my “very low risk” strategies … again, thank you C2 for the opportunity

Hi,

Your average drawdown is good, but the maximum adverse excursion ratio C2 is referring to means something else.

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whatever it means… it’s crap… or maybe it’s just above my pay grade :wink:

the largest draw down of any trade placed by Micro Manager is .64% … a whopping 188 dollars!

Thank God most people ( I think ) are smart enough to analyze the statistics and formulate their own opinion…

one single trade in one of the “suggested” strategies was held for 100 days and ate up 4.8% of the account model…fine, to each his own; just don’t not label my strategies as “risk averse”; all the while pushing a system that is mostly based (in my opinion) on hope, luck, and prayer…

40 days and 40 nights… LMAO!.. like the great flood :rofl:

In any case thanks for your post, I am sure most traders - me included - did not even know that such C2 metric existed!
I wish you the best.

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Thank You!.. and Best of Luck!

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As a current subscriber of both of Mark’s strategies, I can vouch for his solid risk management. I’ve autotraded Art of War since 2/11 and Micro Manager since 4/2 and have closely observed his trades.

The moment a trade is entered, it comes with a stop loss. If the price moves adversely, no size is added and the stop is obeyed. Then he doesn’t reenter the same trade. If the price moves favorably, he trails the stop and sometimes adds size. The only way one can get a big drawdown is from a series of losses, not from a single trade. In my (arguably short) experience on C2, most other futures strategies are riskier.

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Thank You for the kind words… my strategies are not only designed to make money; but more importantly, they are designed to KEEP the money once we make it…hitting a nice trade is no good if all it accomplishes is filling a previously dug hole.

The original post showed an image of a warning message (Dangerous) displayed to a subscriber (me) during the signup process.

It tries to discourage the signup and promote other systems that may actually be much riskier in other ways.

What could C2’s motives be?

I understand transparency, but why the promotion of other, possibly riskier, systems?

Maybe Mark could ask C2 to provide an example of a trade where this dangerous event occurred.

Or maybe C2 could display the detail of the specific trade instead of editorializing and calling it dangerous.

If Mark places tight stops that don’t get hit, what is the issue?

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We are not promoting riskier systems. C2’s job is to promote strategies with a lower risk-to-potential-reward ratio. (This is subjective, of course.)

One factor that has a large weight in the C2Score: strategy age. The strategy in question is less than two months old. That makes it riskier in C2’s eyes than a strategy that is older. So I encourage you to be patient. Perform well for a few months, and C2’s statistical analysis will probably more closely match your own.

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I understand Matthew. Great site and application by the way. Thanks for your efforts.

Maybe the message can be changed to more accurately state what you just typed instead of using the word “Dangerous”.

Everyone on this site is here to make money, and scaring them away from subscribing hurts that trade leader and maybe the subscriber also.

Maybe just state the age of the system or whatever. We’re all adults.

You yourself just said that “This is subjective, of course.”

Stick with facts, not opinions.

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By the way, you said “We are not promoting riskier systems. C2’s job is to promote strategies with a lower risk-to-potential-reward ratio. (This is subjective, of course.)”

That raises a question … is it really C2’s job to be promoting strategies or is that the job of the trade leader? Especially when it is all subjective … of course …

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Yes, it is my job. You can read more background here:

The article focuses on C2Star strategies in particular, but the general concept applies broadly.

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Thanks for the article. It answered the question I posed and explains your reasoning quite well.

Now back to the original post:

Please consider making your warning messages more accurate.

The Micro Manager strategy, based on it’s posted C2 stats, is the exact opposite of “Dangerous”.

Let’s re-visit this in six months and see how things work out.

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my 2 strategies posted here have slightly different trade entry parameters, but very different exit parameters…

what they do have in common, is a very small (and consistent) average loss statistic. They also exit every trade, win or loss, within the same trading session… so the entire “holding on to a losing trade” is 100% inaccurate…

now if a trade is entered with a 200 dollar risk, and it is 120 dollars out of the money for an hour or 2, there is ZERO chance of me exiting the trade at that point. Do I “hope” is turns profitable? of course I do!

my strategies are designed to do exactly the opposite of “hold and hope”… I am not in the “hole digging” business.

so yes, Art of War is 4 months old, and Micro Manager only six weeks… and believe me, I see so many new systems experience beginners luck, only to go down in a ball of flames. I understand anyone being skeptical… they should be

this thread is actually going to prove beneficial to me, and anyone considering my strategies.

So Matthew, I greatly appreciate this open forum as a place where this type of thing can be discussed, and for everyone to read and chime in on… I will be here in 6 weeks, 6 months, and (God willing) 6 years and hopefully longer… I will be a familiar, positive, and profitable participant on C2 for the foreseeable future… what you have assembled here (C2 in total) has my utmost respect… Again, Thank You… Mark

Hi,

Some traders re-initiate their position after a loss, when and if the price revisits their original entry price. This re-entry technique can greatly enhance the profitability of some systems, depending on their timing logic of course.

Do you also re-enter losing trades when the price comes back to your entry point or do you simply take the loss and wait for the next trading opportunity, even if the price returns to your original buy/sell point later during the day?
Thanks.

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being that my “risk window” (for lack of a better term) is so tight, I would never rule it out… but what I often find is that my entry was just early, and I end up making the same trade at a much better price; it wins, and the small loss becomes irrelevant … other times I realize I was just wrong, and I take my small loss as the market moves hard in the opposite direction… there is always another trade opportunity, with minimal risk of course… my emphasis is always on defense, there is nothing more psychologically destructive as digging a deep hole and trying to fill it in… and as I am sure you know (based on other things you have posted), the mental game is 90% of trading… big losses and deep holes can often make a trader “gun shy”, missing the next big winner; and it spirals out of control from there. If a trader can eliminate this detrimental scenario, he has a 99% chance of success in my opinion.

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