Thank you for the invite KarlA.
I am a newbie here. I am a analytical statistics expert. I started my system yesterday and got crushed today. I state this as a qualification for my comment so you understand my response. My failure today does not reflect my analytical ability. Todays failure was human fault, mine.
Being said, I have analyzed the Micro Trade approach to answer your entry.
A 250k starting bank that utilizes a maximum trade amount of 10 contracts per product, ES and NQ.
The day margin, $500/contract is available through Tradovate.com and other brokers. The system requires 5,000 for ES and 5,000 for NQ at its stated maximum. So, 10k plus enough to cover a down turn. This system uses 240,000 as backup. What is the cost of leaving idle 240k in an account getting zero interest?
A down turn with margin account of 250k, of 2.3 percent is roughly, is close to 6k. Anyone following the system has to be able to handle a DD of 6k, possibly more. After Decembers mess, a buy long strategy makes great sense. Shorts can be included but the premise is an incorrect long call or short call will eventually recover. The ES goes back and forth so it sounds good. Can the market continue to move against you until your margin is called? In the case of a real life 250k account, it would be rough but how many of your followers, including you, in real life, are tying up 250k, based on your strategy of waiting until the trade is profitable? How many actually are willing and able to withstand a 6k DD for a single trade. The standard 2% DD per trade means a margin account of 300k in needed for that metric based on 2% max DD and 6k in actual DD. I suspect 0 subscribers, including you are not margining 10k, let alone 300k. What is your margin account for this trade system and at what $ figure do you abort? No TOS badge says plenty. Your system is ahead roughly 25K, what are you actually up?
I see 36 live trades out of 38 C2 trades. I do not see a TOS 100% badge like I have. You are promoting the trade, collecting fees, but not following your own advice, You are asking people to margin a 1/4 of a million dollars but you are not risking 1/4 of a million. Why not??? By starting with 250k, and only needing 20k or so, you are distorting the DD figure. You have DD’d 6k and with a 10k needed to enter, that’s 60%. An obvious red flag. With 20k it is 30% and with 250k of dream money, it is 2.3%. possibly a planned deception and possibly not. In either event, your DD is not 2.3% unless someone here is risking 250k on a week old strategy with a guy they do not know and has a track record of other, no longer promoted strategies. My DD is 17.9% or 14k. If I changed my start to $1,000,000, my DD would be 1.4% (2m is 0.7%). In stats we know, stats lie and liars use stats. i am not saying anyone here is attempting to perpetrate a fraud, it is easy and possible though.
To be legitimate, reduce your account by at least 90% to 25k. If you are a winning day trader, the margin should increase weekly, if not daily. Your DD metric, will be multiplied by 9 and therefore 54k, or roughly 21%. You’ve been in that zone, more than once.
Rich people buy and hold until profitable, looking magical. No magic involved, just playing the odds.
Cannot recall the bigtime investor but he held a short for 3+ years losing billions until he finally closed the trade during the extensive bull run. This is an up or down game, close to 50/50. If 1024 traders flip a coin, at 50/50, according to an expected probability distribution, 1 trader would guess 10 in a row correct, a great trader therefore and one trader would guess 10 incorrect in a row, a loser. The other 1022 traders would fill in somewhere between that. This is why once in a while systems appear to be to good to be true. Adding in he FACT that the margin account of 250k is ridiculous for a demand of 10k margin maximum for entry and zero people are putting that amount up, this is a fantasy or fraud. The odds will eventually catch up once the amount of samples are sufficient. Probability is a mathematical law, just like the law of mortality, it HAS to happen. A huge loss compared to the current results, more than the tolerated 6k will be followed up by another and another, according to prob distribution, and all without 250k will bust. i notice the amount of your trades per day is shrinking. I assume you are waiting for subscribers while the stats are so high. I could be very wrong.
My conclusion, a martingale that will explode. At 300 per subscription, you will be the only survivor; maybe.
My system wins quickly by its a nature. I know I have made an error when the trade time is greater than the average quick win. As time goes on in a trade, my reason for entry disappears. the ES is so choppy, it comes around many times and a mistake, based on my system, redeems itself by the trading GODS. This principle has lead me to a behavior change in the past and removing stops, although my extensive knowledge said close the trade, became a practice. I know someone out there ID’s with me.
Just wait around long enough, and I may be right in the end. You take quick wins in minutes and other wins take hours. My good trades average less than 2 minutes. What is your planned win metric? Is it when profitable, no matter how long it takes?
What is your systems expectation? Minutes or hours or hang around as long as it takes?
Having said that, a subscriber who decides when to follow you and when not to follow you, not 100%, can profit by falling in the cracks, by there own chances. At least you will be around when the explosion comes but you are not trading your system 100%.
Will your subscription collections surpass your trading losses. I do not know how you follow your system percentage wise or how many subs have actually shelled out $300.00.
Thanks again for the invite to express my point of view. I hope my response is viewed as respectful to the forum even though it is in severe opposition of your MICRO TRADE’S approach…
My money bets on me or it doesn’t bet, period.