During a good part of any day and especially during the summer months the ES market does eather a chop movement a sideways movement or a slow up or a slow down movement this system will profit during thiese times of the day and night in after hour trading, also the the market very seldom makes a straight up or down move and can be said during the overnight hours. Also the ES has a habit of doing a chop up and chop down or sideways chop after the inital morning run up or down then afthe the sideways lunch time it does some chop up and chop down in all of thiese markets the 11-22 will make you consistant profit and can also make money during the open rush vollitality and end of day run up or down. Basically you start by placing a buy and a sell order 4 ticks above and below for one unit "Unit size should dbl. every 3 months using the profits from past 3 months or as the account Dbls." each of the orders will have a 4 tick profit target and a 8 tick stop loss. so for instance the market is at a given point 4 ticks above the market you place a sell order for one unit-and conversely four ticks down from where the market is at the same time you will have a buy order four one unit with a four 4 tick profit with a 8 tick stop loss, at the same time those orders are made another order is made four ticks away above and below four 2 units "Again units will go up as account goes up or dbl." now the 2 unit order will also have a 4 tick profit target and a 8 tick stop loss …so if you pitcure the market doing its sideways chop or 45 degree up chop or down chop the market will has movrd 4 ticks from your start possition and grabs lets say the one unit and you are in. At this time 3 things can happen 1. the market will move back down the 4 ticks and you made a profit for 1 point times 1 unit and the system is re started from the begining and re sets the order. 2 the second sennairo the market went four ticks up from zero and you were in for one unit and continued up four more ticks to reach the 2 unit possition order you had placed then reversed just four ticks giving you a one point profit with 3 units "The one unit plus the two unit"!! The third sennarieo is the least likely to happen and that is the market goes in one direction without doing even a four tick retracement. In this case from zero it ewnt up 4 ticks grabed the one unit continued to the two unit and did not retrace four ticks but continued the same direction 8 more ticks through your 3 unit stop 8=4=4 16 ticks in the same direction with no retracements of even four ticks this does happen during the chop period, but not verry often compared to the up down make a unit profit and the make a 3 unit profit witch happens over and over I have used this system even during the opening fast movement and as fast as ayou can set your orders they get filled with a profit quickly over and over for 1-3 units witch has consistantly made a profit…but every once in a while the market does some up and down over the 16 tick movement or four points over and over with no retracements but this is very rare to have happen over any piriod of time…Personally I have found that the market is doing the large moves straight up and down their are better systems to take advantage of thiese oppertuintys the 11-22 is for the rest of the time when the market is not doing the straight up and down but the sideways movement -regular up trends or down trends. In other words MOST of the time!!
I think I understand what you are saying, but I could use a graphic/diagram.
It seems to me that scenario 2 would result in a 2 point profit. The first unit would be a wash with zero profit and the 2 unit order would result in a 2 point profit, or $100 - $27 (commission) = $73 profit.
Scenario 1 would be 1 point or $50 - $9 (commission) = $41 profit.
Scenario 3 seems like it would result in a 28 tick loss. First unit would lose 12 ticks, and the second 2 units would lose 8 each or 12+8+8 =28 ticks or 5.2 points for a $260 + $27 (commission) = $287 loss.
Obviously (if I have this right) you need to see Scenario 1 and 2 occur 2-3 times (combined) more often then Scenario 3.
Can you verify that I have your system right?
Jim
I think you are barking up the wrong tree. First, the market is a mix of chop and strong moves. Going for a few ticks is ignoring commission, slippage, system fee, etc. I suspect that if a few thousand trades using your logic were simulated under diff market conditions, ignoring all trading costs, you would find this produces random returns. Add in the costs, and this will likely be a negative expectancy system.
I have yet to see a C2 system that goes for a few ticks (scalping basically) that could outperform (with good stats!!!) after deducting for the C2 commission, realism, keep after slippage, system fee, etc.
This system will be kaput and forgotten within several months or less.
Yes the vendor and a few others may protest, but after all, the C2 stats and equity curve will be the final judge, no??? I don’t think I have been ultimately proven wrong yet…
0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 zero being were the market is at the time of orders being made and the 4th “one” 1 being where the one contract was placed with a 4 tick profit target and a “8” tick stop loss, so when the market gets to the 4th tick and does a reversal four 4 ticks you have a one point profit! this is what happens most often the second seniero having the market going past the 8th tick gathering up the one C and at the 8th tick grabing the 2C or contract… rember the stop on both is 8 tick so now your dome showes you are active for 3 active for 3C or contract’'s then before going up a additional 4 ticks "the stop on the the 1 or first contract it reverses 4 ticks bringing you a 3 point profit, the only time you really loose is when the market goes the 4 tick another 4 tick plus a 8 tick in one direction 16 ticks with out doing even a 4 tick retracement …After Speaking with Jay He belives the time to activate is 45 min. after the open and no trading in the last half hr. of the day
Ignoring for the moment the issue of a trader utilizing limit orders in a fully liquid instrument such as the ES, subscribers will always be hit with a minimum of 1 tick average slippage on any ES limit order. Historically, it’s been 2 ticks average slippage or higher. Per side. It is impossible to have subscribers follow a scalping system successfully, on any platform, unless your scalping system exclusively uses market and stop orders.
Given that fact, Index’s assessment is spot on. Not that betting against a new system is rocket science =)
Ignored by 72% you sir have a very hi rate of return lol
Agreed stop would lose 16 ticks, but would’t profit be 8 ticks on reversal from second scale trade? First position would break even?
I think the first position would not close for a profit until it retraced 8 ticks, instead of 4 from -4 (like I thought). That would give a 3 point profit, but would require a 8 tick reversal to do so.
Jim
Ignored by 72% you sir have a very hi rate of return lol
you sir, have a high rate of ignoring the issue. Your proposed algorithm likely does not work when all trading costs and fees are factored in.
part of the high ignore % is I have been here 3 years, is only those who use ignore, I do not try to sugarcoat the truth, and I am not seeking to be admired. My main interest is the point of C2 - shining light on vendor claims via a host of statistics, an audited track record, subscriber comments, “My Analyst” comments, and forum discussion.
You posted your approach and I posted an analysis of it. It would be preferable you don’t dance around peoples’ responses to you. It makes it look like you don’t know what you are doing.
Bob -
Index has a high ignore rate because, as he states, he does not “sugarcoat” his replies. He is blunt. A lot of people may not like his approach or method of delivery, BUT HE IS ALMOST ALWAYS ACCURATE IN HIS ASSESSMENTS.
I have been here over 3 years, and I believe Index is one of the best advice givers here.
So, don’t let the ignore rating fool you into thinking he is a crackpot. On the contrary, he knows his stuff.
Kevin Davey
Kevin,
A lot of people may not like his approach or method of delivery, BUT HE IS ALMOST ALWAYS ACCURATE IN HIS ASSESSMENTS.
It’s not big deal to find a looser at C2 (smile) What is contradicting your statement it’s simple fact that Mr. Always-Know-How-to-Trade-in-theory never point to a winner (smile).
I would add, because Mr. Index likes C2’s history his C2’s history.
Original name Changed to When changed
Futures-Systems.com (Multi-futures) Futures-Systems.com (Multi-futures) 5/14/06 11:48
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Join at Futures-Systems.com ===> Futures-Systems.com 6/6/06 6:53
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Futures-Systems.com Index 6/3/08 12:30
Well… I hope you see my point. His ignore rating is very well deserved.
Eu
for 8 months it has worked as a paper trade and a real trade . you have po-pood it with out even running a paper trade …this is not a trade to do aftre the market has done a 500 point move the day before or during the first half hr. or the last half hr. of the day this is a new idea I have asked old timers in this industry if they have heard anything simmular -an origional thought. But it is based on the oldest and most popular betting system in the history of the world…and it is likely that you sir have used your self …have you never lost a game of pool and told your apponet you wanted to dbl. the bet? Now in this new world we live in and because of programs like Mathmatica I do feel that it is possable to fine tune this programe to work like a clock! and the final thought to leave you with is that this betting style does work on cards and dice but the dice does not rember what the last roll is…the market is more like a tug of war …Humans are pulling it this way and witch is why it will alwayse zig and zag! "retrace=profit"
Bob -
A couple of questions:
1) Does this system win when you just trade 1 contract always? In other words, does it have an edge that has a long term expectancy, independent of position sizing? If it does not have an edge with trading one contract, no position sizing scheme will make it long term profitable. If it does have an edge, then proper position sizing will make it even better.
2) It sounds like you are talking about Martingale position sizing, correct? If so, and if you have no trading edge, I hope you realize that it only works if you have infinite wealth to start with. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)
Kevin
Kevin this will be the last I say on this ignore Index subject. Kevin at least you have put your monney where your mouth is. And came up with a Idea! or system …as far as I can tell Index has nothing to show us. As they say in the movies "Show me the money!!" Oh yea Index… If you do come up with the winner of a system I will be the first to subcribe Bob Nordberg!
Jim the way I understand it it does the averiging thing…try it on a paper trade you wiww see what I mean…Bob
"an origional thought" Where money is made!
It is easy to single out systems and say they will fail, at least 90% do. But to pick a winner, that is more like trading, something index does not like doing for all the world to see.
Index knows his stuff, but can he trade, hasnt proven it yet. Anyone who could really trade would put on a quick 30 trades to prove it. Bare-naked in front of the world, indexes worst nightmare.
the martingale is right kevin… here is the diffrence between dice and humans…dice or cards or roulette have no memory of the last move or hand or roll of the dice …with this system as with the es market their is this thing called restance and pullbacks and retracements and they arent just luck humans are doing the pulling this is the diffrence. and avoiding the time of day that the market has not settled down. and some other ways of avoiding the wild part of the day where the moves are above 5 pts. with no retracements
for 8 months it has worked as a paper trade and a real trade .
C2 has shown thousands of times that paper trading is basically irrelevant. As for real trades, we have seen none, and you will also see what I mean if you actually trade it on C2 vigorously. You will wind up very disapponted.
you have po-pood it with out even running a paper trade
The federal government wil not even accept patent applications for pereptual motion machines. I read your description and recognize yours as either a Rube-Goldberg or perpetual-motion machine.
…this is not a trade to do aftre the market has done a 500 point move the day before or during the first half hr. or the last half hr. of the day
I am glad you have figured the market out. Unfortunately, predicting market volatility based on perceived “calm periods” is a fool’s errand
this is a new idea I have asked old timers in this industry if they have heard anything simmular -an origional thought.
You are such a newbie. It is a trading 101 idea tried and failed many thousands of times. Your claim about old-timers thinking it as anything of value is absurd. Unless by old-timers, you mean a Trader’s Cemetery.
But it is based on the oldest and most popular betting system in the history of the world…and …have you never lost a game of pool and told your apponet you wanted to dbl. the bet?
Whatever respect I had for your just went out the window. You have no idea how naive your proposal on a betting algorithm for betting OR trading is. This has been brought up many many times by newbies, and laughed/'criticized into oblivion by experience traders who new. You are as ridiculous as newbies who say "gee whillikers, why can’t I just do the opposite of a bad system???
Now in this new world we live in and because of programs like Mathmatica I do feel that it is possable to fine tune this programe to work like a clock!
Yes, a broken clock - it works twice a day. Ask Captain Hook about that. New world? Ridiculous ideas are timeless. They are as stupid today as they were 50 years ago.
and the final thought to leave you with is that this betting style does work on cards and dice but the dice does not rember what the last roll is…
WRONG. Simplistic trades based on your concepts will have little positive effect. Just because the market retraced a few ticks or points, does not mean that you can rely on it to give you a predictable situation to trade on. It will about as likely continue in a direction as return, in ways that will confound your simplistic methods. Otherwise, the investment banks, hedge funds, financial institutions would put their billions of reseach and funds into this and arb it to death.
the market is more like a tug of war …Humans are pulling it this way and witch is why it will alwayse zig and zag! “retrace=profit”
Wow. That is SO INSIGHTFUL. Not… I have been trading for 22 years. You sound like an 8 year old who got excited over “Trading Futures for Dummies” and is telling Daddy something he knew 20 years ago. Everyone knows the market is cyclic and fractal at many levels, and the market moves in wave like patterns. The problem is, that does not mean it is predictable in this newbie fashion that you desire.
Tell you what. We will both put $5000 into an escrow account, agree to a 3rd party (like a respectable person on DC2) to make the decision. All verified of course.
If in 6 months:
… your original, breakthrough system has good C2 stats, does not have nerve-damaging drawdowns, has sufficient trades, and is in the top C2 systems demonstrating a true and reliable market outperformance based on your algorithm, then you get the $10,000.
Otherwise,
… I get it…
Wow, 9 to one odds, isn’t index smart.
index, put your own system against 11-22 for $10,000, scared?
