A trading strategy is just one of the components of a system and this represents a small percentage. A strategy that fails for the majority of traders will be successful for a few. I’m sure if a proper analysis is done on systems in C2’s graveyard there will be a few that would be profitable if tweaked.
Only through hindsight and curve fitting, Gemack.
Exactly!! as traders we can easly calculate just by looking at charts what time of the Day has most the Huge run up’s and downs the automated program for 11-22 is going to avoid those hours. that is the first change or “tweek” to the system we are adding, the second I am toying with is one I used during after hour trading it is instead of having the 11 placed 4 ticks away from where the market is at the end of the previous trade, during after hour trading I wanted to try a version that was only 2 or 3 ticks away. some nights waiting to get filled on the 11 was like watching paint dry, a third "Tweek is realising that some days the market just does not want to go your way so I was toying with the idea of if a days losses exceded let say 700 at any given tme it would just take the rest of the day off, lol basicly if you have any more “Tweeking ideas” that can really help that would be great! except for Index… lol he said enough allready 
… I plan on testing several versions to see over time witch is "Tweeked the best! thank you in adavance for any ideas Bob Nordberg
Bob -
As you do your “tweeking,” don’t determine the tweeks and evaluate your system performace on the same data. That is a HUGE rookie mistake. That will lead to curve fitting and over-optimization, and your results will not be tradeable in the future.
If you are going to tweek, I highly recommend walk forward testing. Or, at the very least, keep the last year or so (exact time depends on your trade frequency) of data untouched and untested.
Then when you are done with tweeks on your test set of data, run your system on the untested data. If it performs half as good (or higher) on untested data, THEN you may have something that has a chance going forward. Even then, it is no guarantee it will work.
I know you are new to creating and evaluating trading systems, and I can tell you it is about 1,000 times harder to create a winning system going forward than you think it is. We’ve all been in your shoes, though. I remember writing my first trading system 18 years ago in Fortran, figuring I’d develop the “Holy Grail” in 1 month. Now, here I am literally 10,000+ systems/ideas later, and I have maybe a dozen that are worth anything.
Your posts seem to suggest that this is going to be easy money. I hope it is for you. For most of us, we have learned that the easy part is LOSING money. Speaking from personal experience, it is really tough to make money doing this.
Kevin
That is a good point. Testing out an idea with subscriber’s money at risk is not a "system."
I (and you) already know what this will look like 6 months from now.
But talking to Bob it is like talking to a potted plant. But like you said - you were convinced you found the Grail 18 years or so ago ---- This is a powerful reminder that much of the time, you cannot prevent a newbie from doing something foolish; they just have to learn the hard way. It has been made clear that his method has already been disproved by many traders. Now we have to wait for him to collapse.
Good advice.
For most catastrophic systems I know the best condition to add would be buy or sell if RSI[5]>=101. LOL…
In/out samples testing is a must.
Bob,
As I understand you discovered martingale(smile). Also you have quite imbalanced profit/target ratio for martingale. To be honest martingale works hmmm… at least for a while. It’s statistically profitable if you have indefinite amount of TC. My best martingale model for stocks shows very high profit for ~4 years in back test. Unfortunately after that the model lost miserable 98%. I’m speaking about proper in/out samples testing (2 years - in/2 - years out samples at 5th out year it lost 98% of TC). So I never had a gut to run it live, but maybe you can find a better way for handling the 98% situations. Try it, trade it, take the money.
only my 2c.
Eu
This thing I call the 11-22 is been a long tome in the works....For two years it is something I just thought about, it started as a 11-22-44-88-16-16 32-32 this tipe of trade was going to really get you in trouble and take forevor to come back from when the market took a tail spin up or down. I think having the 11-22 shut it self down any time is lost 600 is a good idea that way it could avoid a good part of very volitale days. also in the past I tried it with all kinds of varitions on stop and profit targets...slowly it morfed in to something that can be traded with a minnimal account this Morfing was the Idea of my good friend Jay Bowers, and by minnimal account I mean 5-7 thousand dollars ! the concept being that as soon as the account reached 10 k the 11-22 would become the 22-44 and then 44-88 and the 16-16-32-32 Last summer I sat there in front of the screen typing the 11-22 on a dome day after day week after week and month after month opening dome on top of dome usally 4-5 domes open and running at the same time...all starting at diffrent times but on the same market, it was like the fastest finger question on Who wants to be a Millionaire.....and what I found over and over was the same thing ! and that was the presentage of times I got taken out of both the 11-and the-22 without a 4 tick retracement was very far and few between and when this did happen just a few trades later it recooped the 300 or so it went down.. the same thing was happening for my 3 other ES trading friends...now when the market was shooting down 700 every day then up 400 and down 700 this was not the time to be looking to trade the 11-22 it was the time to be saying the trend is my friend and using a diffrent stratgy....and some here did just that! I am sure on some days felt like dancing a jig lol....I am sure every one rembers when Obama wanted his Stimulas package passed during the time he spoke and you were in a trade that was short and had a trailing stop that was placed just right, you were verry happy indeed! Any way back to the 11-22 on friday James Nelson just finished programing the automated version it only ran so far, for half a day and did what I expected it would do....from here Jim said it wont be hard to get it up and running on C2 and I am very exicited about the future of the 11-22 their is a simmular version that i am told is very popular on the forex dhat does very well when the Forex settles down...as of now I really do not really know any thing about programing a automated version of the 11-22 ...I would like to learn more about it and think I am very lucky to meet a friend like James Nelson who I hope can teach me more about automated trade programming. I am also looking forward to meet some more Geekey friends who don't mind teaching this old Dog a few new tricks ! Thanks in advance for your help Bob NordbergBob,
Wouldn’t this discussion be better suited on your own systems forum instead of the C2 general forum? Why not post a new topic there.
I believe this particular forum is for “Place to suggest features and discuss this Web site.”. Do you anticipate or wish your strategy to become a new C2 feature?
Boob -
You said: " I am also looking forward to meet some more Geekey friends who don’t mind teaching this old Dog a few new tricks"
By my quick tally through your spam filled and terribly misspelled thread, it looks like about 5-10 of Collective2’s experienced traders have given you a load of very good advice already, and you have more or less ignored them all.
Could it be that, unlike your birds, you really don’t want new tricks? Maybe you just want community praise for 11-22…
TP
Calling him "Boob" is hardly praise…
Sounds like you are not the Geeky friend I was looking for LOL. I know it sounds crazy for some that a program as simple as this to actually have a edge, and it may be a flook that It has for me and my friends for almost a year. And it may be the time delay and slippage and dbl. commision on c2 make it so it will not work here. But as the Song goes." You may be right…I may be Crazy" But you never know …do you! Now why don’t you Move along now, and go call sombody else names…that is not my style! Bob Nordberg
By the way Tommy and John… I went back to look at all the systems you 2 have come up with …and guess wha I find none zero zilch …What supprise lol Now that puts you right up their with Index the 3 of you have come up with nothing …why don’ the 3 of you come back and pick apart my 11-22 after you 3 have come up with some trades to show us!!
Actually your name was a misspelling on my part.
I’ll give you my truthful advice, which I’m sure you will ignore, like you have other good advice givers in this thread…
Martingale is not an edge.
Far from it. It may take a month or a year or two years, but I 100% guarantee that eventually your “system” will fail. The longer you survive with it, the bolder you’ll get, the more risk you’ll take, and the harder and farther you’ll eventually fall.
I am not ripping on you, because Martingale does look enticing at first and even second glance.
But, Bob, it is Math. Math doesn’t lie. Math says unless you have unlimited money, Martingale will eventually fail. Whether it is dice, blackjack, random numbers or trading, it does not matter ---- you will eventually find yourself in a losing trade you cannot escape.
You can berate me, ignore me, and ridicule me, but I am honestly trying to help you.
It is like musical chairs ---- just remember to quit before the music stops.
TP
I am intrested in your system …like how many times did it double and did the double happen at the stop? you have spent lots of time messing with the "M" could you tell me more about how yours worked? thanks Bob
I am not a developer. I am a subscriber. I have been evaluating and trading other people’s systems for 20 years.
You ask for advice, and yet you can’t accept it.
I tried - I’m done.
TP
I agree with you that a true Martingale system will fail…You are correct as I stated in a earlier post I tried it as a 11-22-44-88-1616 all the way up and it did fail. I also stated that it was better suited for periods of time the market settles down like in the summer. I also dont think it should be turned on after the market made a very large move in eather direction the prior day. and their a few other times the system should be in the off position. It should not be on when the President speeks or Rom Emanueal is speeking. This is not a true Martingale System it only goes to 2 contracts not 4 not 8 not 16 and so on. the 11-22 should have a trigger that turns it off after a certian amount of loss during one day I am thinking around 700-900 So when the market goes up 4 tick’s and comes back 4 it loggs a profit- comm if the market goes up 8 tick’s and comes back 4 tick’s it loggs a profit if the market goes up 12 ticks and comes back 6 tick’s it loggs a profit and if the market goes up 15 ticks and comes back to your target you profit but if the market goes up and up the 22 part of the 11-22 has a 8 tick stop on it so if it goes up 16 tick’s with no 4 tick retracements or pull backs and this does happen almost every day but not too often, and some times several times then it loggs a loss so if you look at your charts not including the 45 min. and the last 45 min. and count all the 1 contract winns and the 3 contract wins and then subtract the times it lost lost by going a full 16 ticks or 4 points I think that most days you will find the days that the tally for winning days do indeed out number loosers days. as of now we are looking for additional triggers that will tell the 11-22 to shut down to avoid some of the big 16 tick moves that take some of the profit …I for one think it may be possable to tune it in to be consistant on the winning side with full automation …I dont know yet but we will see…I DO know their is a version on the Forex that is very popular…Bob Nordberg
I agree with you that a true Martingale system will fail…You are correct as I stated in a earlier post I tried it as a 11-22-44-88-1616 all the way up and it did fail. I also stated that it was better suited for periods of time the market settles down like in the summer. I also dont think it should be turned on after the market made a very large move in eather direction the prior day. and their a few other times the system should be in the off position. It should not be on when the President speeks or Rom Emanueal is speeking. This is not a true Martingale System it only goes to 2 contracts not 4 not 8 not 16 and so on. the 11-22 should have a trigger that turns it off after a certian amount of loss during one day I am thinking around 700-900 So when the market goes up 4 tick’s and comes back 4 it loggs a profit- comm if the market goes up 8 tick’s and comes back 4 tick’s it loggs a profit if the market goes up 12 ticks and comes back 6 tick’s it loggs a profit and if the market goes up 15 ticks and comes back to your target you profit but if the market goes up and up the 22 part of the 11-22 has a 8 tick stop on it so if it goes up 16 tick’s with no 4 tick retracements or pull backs and this does happen almost every day but not too often, and some times several times then it loggs a loss so if you look at your charts not including the 45 min. and the last 45 min. and count all the 1 contract winns and the 3 contract wins and then subtract the times it lost lost by going a full 16 ticks or 4 points I think that most days you will find the days that the tally for winning days do indeed out number loosers days. as of now we are looking for additional triggers that will tell the 11-22 to shut down to avoid some of the big 16 tick moves that take some of the profit …I for one think it may be possable to tune it in to be consistant on the winning side with full automation …I dont know yet but we will see…I DO know their is a version on the Forex that is very popular…Bob Nordberg
TP:
It is hard to shake someone of their delusions.
You told him what everyone else already knows. Martingale doesn’t work. Tweaking it to prevent losses or to work in “calm” markets shows that Bob has a complete lack of understanding of proboobility smile.
There is no free lunch, but in a few months, he will hopefully grasp reality. In the meantime, he is so convinced, that the only thing left to do is let him fall flat on his face. I expect him to delve into Hold&Hope or similar statistical/equity curve manipulation when it goes against him too much.
Perhaps his continual bad spelling indicates that he is a mentally simple person and cannot grasp what people are telling him. He surely communicates that way.
We don’t need to “test” his perpetual motion machine, because we already know why it doesn’t work.
