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Market is Math and Levels

New to this forum, but it seems this is the place to post opinions or ideas on the market, this is my first one.

Market is math, once the market has accumulated a certain amount of positive ticks (or negative on a move down), the market CANNOT POSSIBLY continue higher, simple math, nothing to do with Covid, or the Fed, nothing, zip, nada. Pure math. As the accumulation of positive ticks gets to a certain level, MARKET NEEDS A RESET PERIOD END OF STORY. (btw this is why our strategies made 30% and 20% this week ONLY shorting). The market needs a reset, and machines will take the market to the next level down, the first level down was 3130 on ES (thats why I put target a bit above), and have no doubt, machines will take market to that level, no question.

Two days ago I posted on my twitter @momentum500 (my handle) that the daily up cycle was over, that market had no more business going up. ES wat 3124 (high was 3231.25) and target posted for my followers was 3144 (80 point swing hit this morning).

Can you post a link to each strategy?

Good results since inception a couple of days ago, can’t deny that. I’ve added your strategies to my watchlist.

I always appreciate a successful trader who is still humble to the market, and humble in general :wink:

@Indexmomentum, your systems seem to average down when the trade goes against you… do you have a stop level?

There have been many systems that have come and gone using the same method thats why I am inquiring.

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Yeah, I like that together with the short time in the market to limit risk but still be able to participate in the big moves like today. Keep up the good work.

I think the bigger concern is the high leverage and not TOS.

-220 micro eminis on a $140k account seems like way too much for me.
-And as we’ve seen before, systems get much better pricing on the bid/ask spread when fake money is involved.

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Noticed you gained a significant amount of investors when your strategy is only a couple of days old. I always wonder how that is possible. Or did you maybe move existing customers to C2? Today your strategies took a beating, that happens to all of us trade leaders, that’s why I brought up the ‘being-humble’ joke :wink:

But do I see correctly you accept big drawdowns per trade and close with a relatively small profit? When I convert everything to just 1 contract, it seems that way.

@Indexmomentum - Judging from the results, it appears your strategy finds a nearly 50% draw-down reasonable. In addition, your method of handling losing trades involves a Martingale strategy [example #1], where you continue to add to a losing position in an effort to average out a winner eventually. As you quickly found out, such a strategy is both naive and infantile. Your subscribers found out the hard way, by losing half of their portfolio that was invested with you (I spoke with two of them to confirm this). Needless to say, your risk control methodology is nonexistent, and employing Martingale to mitigate losses is nothing short of reckless.

I’m curious… what do you have to say to your recent subscribers who paid money to have your system trade their portfolio? One, in particular, had a conversation with you about stop losses… and it’s my understanding you equivocated to him that you cut losses at 5% typically, and at 10% worst case? Telling subscribers one thing then doing another with their money is morally reprehensible.

Please address the issues above when responding, and avoid drifting into other claims. Telling us that you were responsible for managing a billion dollar fund, and that 140 other traders worked under you, won’t change the fact that you’re absolutely terrible at basic (beginner’s) risk control and also fail to adhere to the methodology you claim to employ, deceiving your subscribers in the process.

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It also appears that some people won’t hesitate to subscribe to C2 strategies with a 100% drawdown.

Each trader is different as far as risk tolerance is concerned.

But how is it possible that a strategy only a couple of days old already has attracted several subscribers? What made them subscribe having only so little data? And then there very good and stable systems for years with 1 or 2 subscribers. I don’t get that.

Also, from the opening post when a new strategy is announced by the trader, very often you can pretty much guess what is going to happen next…

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Very simple, the system developer probably posted his link on Facebook, Youtube, Twitter or other similar websites.

Or maybe he already has a few followers on some forum/blog/Youtube and he used that list to advertise his system.

In other words, don’t assume that the subscribers are coming from C2 traffic alone.

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Exactly, that’s the only thing I can come up with too, but then the strategy must have had a verified track record elsewhere and the current draw down is just a minor scratch.

Or some people can be convinced very easily to invest into anything. I know they exist, but I still don’t believe it :wink:

It’s also possible, or maybe the subscribers simply know and trust the system developer, and did not hesitate to join his system immediately.

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No offense.
But both of your strategies will be worthless in 30 days or less. Trading is much more than math. Math only measures the movement and volatility of trading.

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Then start a simulation, bet against each signal and you will make money, if you are so sure.

Can you…? :wink:

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Then start a simulation, bet against each signal and you will make money, if you are so sure.

Perhaps he’s not naive, and has at least a fundamental understanding of markets, in which case he realizes markets are non-binary… so your suggestion makes no sense. If a strategy that goes long during a certain temporal period is wrong, that does not imply a reverse strategy (going short during that same period) would have profited… because markets can assume more than just two states during any temporal window.

So according to you, if a trader is long EUR/USD and he loses 100 pips in one hour, for instance, then short traders did not earn 100 pips during that same hour?

Assuming arguendo the following automated trade, utilizing a 2:1 reward/risk ratio:

BTO 5 /ES @ 3250.00, stop loss at 3245.00, limit at 3260.00
Price Action: Price goes down to 3244.75, then rallies to 3265.00

Result: Original trade gets stopped out at 3245.00, resulting in a 25 point loss.

You cleverly think reversing the trade makes it a winner, so let’s do that:

STO 5 /ES @ 3250.00, stop @ 3255.00, limit @ 3240.00 (same 2:1 reward/risk ratio)
Price Action: Exactly the same as above

Scenario 1) Reversed trade gets stopped out at 3255.00, resulting in a 25 point loss.

Your ill-founded generalized assumption is shown to be without merit. Since price action is non-binary, many other scenarios exist, such as the following:

Scenario 2) Price channels between 3250.25 and 3254.00 all day, resulting in a net loss not yet realized, while funds are tied up overnight until you decide what to do. Perhaps you’re the type who will resort to Martingale techniques like Enchante did, thinking it’s a brilliant idea.

The fact you’d even suggest to someone that reversing a bad trade will make it profitable tells me you lack even a simpleton grasp of the markets and price action. I’m ignoring you from now on. Feel free to continue putting words in other peoples’ mouths, as you espouse your wisdom.

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Indeed, I always use this type of example for trading on FOMC day. No matter how you are positioned, you may very well get stopped out on either side. That’s why I never hold a position on FED day.

And this sunday into today, the strategies dropped another level with its ±14 subscribers(!) There are so many other long lived strategies here that could have served them better. And now these subs may turn their back on C2 for good :worried:

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Seems another failed system that averages down. There’s always new averaging down system that comes out regularly and fails regularly or fails spectacularly in the end with huge drawdowns.

In the end, averaging down (or martingale) systems still need to pick the right direction and target. And by increasing the sizing the systems will also risk taking larger losses as well so the appearance of more trade winners is offset by the greater risk of loss.

But there is still hope in these systems…only a 70%+ drawdown so far in each of the systems! lol…

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