"Just Forex Trades" - Discussion

I certainly received no such communication despite asking directly for one several times.

If anyone has such a communication could you please forward me a copy via PM?

Cheers.

I warned about this system about a month ago. It didn’t take long for disaster to strike!

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wow, just wow. he could have pulled the plug when the trendline on his own chart was broken. it should have been a red flag. how does one fall so in love with a single trade?

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In the past, sticking through bad trades has paid on some occasions. But one can never be sure which one to stick with.

But the this extreme volatility interferes with my sleep. So picking strategies like Jays is not my idea of fun.

Putting my stop loss on such a strategy is counter productive.

I do use stop losses through the system, but they need to be used with less volatile strategies.

I’m not trading with Jay currently, so I can’t help with the EURAUD trade. Apologies.

It could be interesting to know the (historical) ROI and the drawdown of this system under different stop levels (5%, 10%, 15%, etc…).

Of course this backtest could also be applied to any C2 system.

Funny you should ask as that question has been on my mind too


:wink:

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Excellent! Could you please explain how to do this?
Thanks.

C2Explorer provides access to all the required data to create such models.
I may eventually publish my code after it has been further verified but in the meantime if there is a particular system you want to have a ‘provisional’ look PM me the ID/Name and the stops you want to look at and I’ll run the model.

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Great, thank you. :slightly_smiling_face:

So the last chart was a little bit optimistic as it does not account for account rescaling after a ‘stop event’. Obviously after a stop event our account equity will diverge from the model account and require that we readjust our scaling/multiplier. This chart takes that into account. It’s quite illuminating to see the 5% stop destroy the system!

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Generally speaking, a tight stop applied to a mean reversion trading strategy (like Just Forex Trades) will quickly deteriorate the performance of the system.

In fact the trader can turn any winning system into a losing system if the stop is too small.

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It is definitely a very different animal with the way I trade, but this is why I use stops that are quite large. Because they can save you in big events, but I keep the stops very loose to prevent what is happening for example with the 5% stop in this example. I only want them to trigger in extremely volatile scenarios. 99% of the time I want my exits to be based on trend, momentum, or other indicator changes.

Absolutely, stops must follow the price action. They cannot be placed randomly based on predetermined criteria like the amount of money we are willing to lose. The market couldn’t care less about our silly little “budget”.

However, stops cannot be placed at obvious support or resistance levels, as the market makers (not to mention the diabolic algos) tend to target them every single day…

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I like these charts!

@chris_bayley can you do one for Jay’s other system? https://collective2.com/details/117863277

I’m curious if it has a similar sweet spot. This one crashed even worse, and doesn’t have as long of a history.

I haven’t looked at FAR since the meltdown, it appears defunct now but here are the charts. Seems like the highest returning stop there is 20% rather than the 15% for JFT, pretty unsurprising.

Just a quick question about your excellent study: how do you define a 20% stop ?
Is it a 20% drop in total equity (from the highest high) or a 20% drop since the trade started?
Thanks again.

Open position loss exceeds 20% of total model equity. :grimacing:

Gotcha. :+1:

As a side note, some advanced money management techniques use the equity chart itself as a stop loss mechanism.

In other words, all trading must cease as soon as the equity drops below a certain percentage level.

Then the trader resumes normal trading when - and if - the equity “returns” to its original level (on paper of course).

I guess this simple yet powerful trading rule could prevent a lot of traders from blowing up their account…

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the system is back!

if this was a TOS account or real live account, those margin calls would have closed the strategy.

as Dr. Margin Gale would say, the strategy is 110% win proof until you run out of capital.

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So long as you’re prepared to manage your own risk:


Just sayin…