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Net Profit Margin Daily Update

#1

As of 1/28/2019, we continue to forecast contracting net profit margins for tech companies. Today, our focus will be on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey, and Results of the $41B, 5-Year Note Auction. As a result of our bearish position, we maintain our position in US treasuries.

#2

As of 1/30/2019, we continue to forecast contracting net profit margins for tech companies. Today, our focus will be on MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Jobs Report, GDP Q4, Treasuring Refunding Quarterly Announcement, Pending Home Sales, State Street Investor Confidence Index, EIA Petroleum Inventories, FOMC Announcement, and Chairman Press Conference. As a result of our bearish position, we maintain our position in US Treasuries.

#3

As of 1/31/2019, we continue to forecast contracting net profit margins for tech companies. Today, our focus will be on the Challenger Job-Cut Report, Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income and Outlays, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, New Home Sales, EIA Natural Gas Inventory, Farm Prices, Money Supply, and Fed Balance Sheet. As a result of our bearish position, we maintain our position in US Treasuries.

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#4

As of 2/1/2019, we continue to forecast contracting net profit margins for tech compaies. Today, our focus will be on Non-farm payrolls, PMI Manufacturing Index, Fed’s Kaplan Speech, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending, Wholesale Trade, Consumer Sentiment, Baker-Hughes Rig Count, and Fed’s Kashkari Speech on Sunday. As a result of our bearish position, we maintain our position in US Treasuries.

#5

As of 2/4/2019, we continue to forecast contracting net profit margins for tech companies. Today, our focus will be on Factory Orders, TD Ameritrade IMX, and Fed’s Mester: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook. As a result of our bearish position, we maintain our position in US Treasuries.

#6

What positions will you take when you are no longer in a bearish position? Btw…the nasdaq is more than 1000 pts off the lows and 800 pts away from the highs so when do you become bullish?

#7

When no longer bearish, positions could include QQQ, TQQQ, or individual companies trading on the NASDAQ. Although our model is currently forecasting contracting net profit margins, there are several catalysts in the near-term that could cause a change in assumptions rather quickly. Of particular interest to us is the fact that we are in the midst of the U.S. corporate earnings season, and so far, collective earnings per share have grown by around 18% compared to the same period last year. We continue to closely monitor company guidance for a potential directional shift in our position.

#8

I see…if your bearish why not hold positions in SQQQ?

Btw…google earnings are after the close today. Could be a market mover.

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#9

It has to do with the confidence interval; in other words, the level of uncertainty exceeds our threshold to warrant a position in SQQQ at this time. You are right, Alphabet Inc. does report its earnings later today and we are keeping a close eye on this development.

#10

Of course but my suggestion is to keep a portfolio of SQQQ and QQQ or other products depending on your view. The reason I am suggesting this is I doubt subs will be paying $100/monthly for your strategy if all you are invested in are treasuries.

Of course its the safest investment but the typical subs in this site are not interested in that kind of investment.

You will have to cater to the typical subscribers if you expect to attract some.

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#11

Thanks for your feedback, and point well taken. Our portfolio can certainly deviate from a 100% position in US Treasuries and instead move to SQQQ, QQQ, TQQQ, and/or other technology stocks at any given time based on the forecast; in fact, given the recent updates to the model, the expectation is that this type of deviation will occur in the near-term.

#12

Today, our focus is on Redbook Chain Store Sales, PMI Services Index, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, and Results of $24B, 3-Year Note Auction.

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#13

Today, our focus is on MBA Mortgage Applications, International Trade, Productivity and Costs, EIA Petroleum Inventories, Results of $27B 10-Year Note Auction, Fed’s Quarles Speech, and Jerome Powell Speech.

#14

Today, our focus is on Initial Jobless Claims, Fed’s Kaplan Speech, Fed’s Clarida: “The Global Factor in Neutral Policy Rates”, EIA Natural Gas Inventory, Results of $19B 30-Year Note Auction, Consumer Credit, Money Supply, Fed Balance Sheet, and Fed’s Bullard: U.S. Monetary and Economic Policy.

#15

Today, our focus is on the Baker-Hughes Rig Count and Fed’s Daly Speech.

#16

Today, our focus is on NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Redbook Chain Store Sales, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, Jerome Powell Speech, Fed’s George: “Charting America’s Economic Course”, and Fed’s Mester: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook.

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#17

Today, our focus is on MBA Mortgage Applications, Consumer Price Index, Fed’s Mester: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook, Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations, EIA Petroleum Inventories, Fed’s Harker: Economic Outlook, and Treasury Budget.

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#18

A word of advice, try a little trading if you want people to be interested in your strategy? No one is even simulating your strategy currently.

By the way, investors don’t need to pay $100/monthly to invest in US treasuries…lol

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#19

Thanks for the advice. The trading strategy is dictated by the forecast. I will note that due to several factors, our forecast is now anticipating rising net profit margins in technology companies. As such, the model made a trade today.

#20

Today, our focus is on Fed’s Mester: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook and NAHB Housing Market Index.

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