not my request, but agree unrealistic in long term…that was my point 
Regards
B48ES
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Dear fellow investors,
As you know I invest in this strategy just like my subs. Of course, I probably have a much higher portion of my net worth following it than they do. If you are anything like me you may be very skeptical that any investment strategy will do well in the long term. I am very skeptical with these things and often question whether my own strategy will succeed long term.
Therefore I often find myself checking my backtests over and over again to try and verify that my strategy is valid. I thought that it may be helpful to start sharing with you as much as I can without giving away the secret sauce. Attached you will find a screen shot for a short period where I am backtesting one of the many ways in which I trade in my strategy.
As you can see the green arrows are buy points and the red arrows are sell points. Typically when I sell something like UPRO I end up buying something else that currently has a buy signal like TMF, UGLD, or GBTC. Plus I have many different trades going at the same time - multiple with the same asset too. Therefore, this is in no way a complete picture of the strategy.
This trade style had me out of UPRO before the massive drawdown at the end of 2018, but didn’t get back in until a while after the recovery started. However, it did catch the majority of the recovery.
As always there are no guarantees the future will be similar but this is a good picture of how a part of my strategy trades. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to ask.
Interactive Assets
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Broadcast Sent to Paying Subs Last Night
I don’t like days like today. Yes, the market dropped about 3% so disliking it isn’t unusual, but the reason is because it ended with me buying TVIX. For the most part I really hate owning TVIX because it is a depreciating asset – in the long run it will lose money. However, based on my research it is still good to buy some TVIX when my basket of indicators hit certain levels. Unfortunately, most of the time my indicators are wrong when it comes to buying TVIX. In fact, most of the time when I buy TVIX it ends up being a steep loss over a very short period.
Even though TVIX is usually a loser for me, when it is a winner it wins so big that it tends to outweigh all the bad losses it made. I see it a bit like buying insurance. Meaning it is usually a loser but a life saver on rare occasions.
There is no guarantee what will happen tomorrow or the next day, but on days like today I just have to remind myself that based on my research the odds are in my f avor to hold TVIX tonight even though I don’t want to because I assume it will be a loss tomorrow or later this week. As always, I believe it is best to stick to a system and not deviate except when research suggests that the mechanics have changed.
I hope you find this encouraging, but I mainly am writing this as a reminder to myself that I need to be okay with TVIX being a steep loss over the next couple of days. So keep calm and carry on.
Broadcast Sent to Simulators:
Welcome all people that are simulating my strategy. Attached is a screenshot of my current holdings. Just felt like giving you a glimpse inside the system since I do have the trade record pretty well locked down to the public. If you have any questions do not hesitate to ask.
Nice trading! Its great to see so many good strategies that are working during this pullback.
Quick question though, why do you have so many positions with only one share?
Thank you! Same to you.There are couple of reasons.
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I always keep 1 share of BLV, VTI, BIV, DBC, GLD, and TLT so that by using the “Manage Positions” options underneath the AutoTrade menu I can add additional money to any of these ETFs in any of the three accounts I have that AutoTrade my strategy. It also allows any sub to put some money aside into more conservative ETFs without having to open a second account.
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The reason I may have 1 share of any other ETF is simply because I don’t want my trading record to be able to be seen by people who do not subscribe. Once someone subscribes they can see my trade history. The only ETF I do not keep one share of but still trade now is TVIX. It just degrades so fast that I can’t stand to watch it. Now there may be a period like now where 1 share of UPRO for example may drop 90% but that doesn’t bother me as much.
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Makes sense. But I have to ask because you’re doing amazing during this downturn. Why don’t you want people to see what trades you’ve placed? Personally I want to show potential subscribers how brilliant my trades were 
. Reverse engineering why you placed a trade is almost impossible.
Do you think holding onto a single share could be a reason why your C2 score fluctuates so much? Someone said that a big part of the score is determined by how long you hold onto losing positions. If you’ve got one share of ZIV with an unrealized 25% loss over 5 months or a 10% loss in VTI that stays on the books for months, maybe your score is especially volatile because of that. I don’t know for sure, just brainstorming.
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I certainly agree that it could be one of the causes. I have thought about stopping it, but just not sure yet.
Warning to all Subs
I am certainly grateful for the performance of my strategy since starting it, and the performance so far in this 19% correction in the market has been satisfactory. However, I am mentally preparing myself for lower returns in the future. Backtests are highly flawed, and real life is almost always not as good as backtests. My backtests indicate annual returns of 35-45%, which means real life will likely be much lower. Right now the system is sitting at a much higher annualized return than backtests indicate for previous periods. Therefore, I do not expect to maintain the current 78% annualized rate of return. I am by no means guaranteeing 35-45%, but I am almost certain 78% will not be maintained. My expectations are less than 35% annualized.
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Is there any point at all to your post? You don’t expect to maintain a 78% ARR, you are not guaranteeing (whatever that means - given that you were never given the option of being able to guarantee) a 35% to 45% ARR. You’re certain 78% ARR won’t be maintained. Your expectations are for less than 35% ARR.
In other words, you expect returns to range from -100% (or account blowout) to +35%. The danger of negative returns has always been there, so this is nothing new. This is the equivalent of saying nothing, using many words and sentences to do so.
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My only goal is to taper expectations. That period from starting the strategy until the time of that post was abnormally good from what I expect in the long run. I wanted to remind subs that it likely wont always run so well so they don’t get too greedy or excited. Unfortunately, I wasn’t wrong about that and did experience a dramatic drawdown. If you would like to not see my posts in the future I believe there is a way to silence this thread from future notifications etc.
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I applaud your honesty. It’s a breath of fresh air considering the usual “Five years ago I knew this drop was going to happen from this exact level” type of boasting most trade leaders do on the forums.
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If you would like to not see my posts in the future I believe there is a way to silence this thread…
I’m well aware of my options for silencing posts. You seem to gravitate toward this habit of pointing out the obvious to people, using word salad to do so. Another option, of course, is for me to simply continue to point out the inadequacies in your communications. But, I digress.
If your idea of “tapering expectations” equates to telling people “past performance is no indicator of future gains” using multiple convoluted sentences to do so, and you’re praised for doing so, then perhaps your audience is under-qualified to invest. If your idea of deflecting valid criticism is to again point out the obvious by inviting the person to silence the thread, I hope your investment strategy is a bit more sophisticated than such flawed binary reasoning.
Again, you make noise and say very little. Your excuse is that you feel the need to “taper expectations” during one of the worst market declines since 1987, when in reality the market took care of tapering expectations for you. What is your real goal, besides making noise?
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And I’m wondering what your goal is, LewPain? Isn’t there enough misery right now without attacking a really nice guy like InteractiveAssets?
Your writing style is very impressive. Maybe you could use it to support people who may be a little down these days.
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And I’m wondering what your goal is, LewPain?
You seem to have a problem with me pointing out nonsense and double-talk that originates from your friend (“really nice guy”). Perhaps our goals are incompatible - you’re here to defend your friend, while I’m here to ascertain the facts and question nonsensical statements made by system vendors. In fact, judging from your infantile misspelling of my name (surprising when coming from an adult), I must ascertain you’re more interested in ad hominem attacks than in facts.
It’s a fact that, in the post I addressed, InteractiveAssets says very little despite speaking a lot. All his noise amounts to nonsense - supposedly motivated by the desire to taper expectations (as if the worst market decline since 1987 hasn’t already done that).
Dont’ expect me to maintain a 78% ARR, and I can’t even guarantee a 35% to 45% ARR. Oh, and I expect my ARR to be less than 35% (except said in many more words).
In professional circles, a meaningless rambling of phrases is no substitute for concise and factual statements that don’t already reiterate the obvious. Perhaps your goal here is to just make noise, widen your social circle, make quips about last names, and defend your friends. None of that, by the way, has anything to do with trading or investment strategy… whereas questioning a vendor’s logic and reasoning has everything to do with it. So, again, perhaps your goals on here are misaligned.
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You should have seen how I originally spelled your name. Please realize how much you are repeating yourself, over and over. Wouldn’t want you to go back to read your posts and get annoyed with yourself. But for the rest of us, keep it up, we all have our popcorn out.
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LewPayne, while you seem to already know enough, I found the info about his “backtests indicate annual returns of 35-45%” helpful in evaluating the potential risk-reward of the system. As a not-so-good trader, I can be misled by C2 stats, and so additional information from traders is always welcome.
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The good and the bad.
The system is having a very nice run right now and at a good price.
The author is misleading subscribers by padding his win rate by holding 1 share of a losing position open so he can later come back and re-enter in hopes of making it a win. Not ethical and this system will eventually fail in my opinion.
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What you’re saying doesn’t make sense. A high win rate is not a good thing. All the systems that go bust usually have really high win rates (over 80 %). Lower win rate systems which take big wins and small losses do better over the long term.
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ETFCapital if you have any insight as to why you think it will fail I am all ears. I will be the first to say that I could be missing something and have some major risks that I haven’t identified. If there is something I have missed I would love to have it pointed out to me. However, win rate is not important to me and is not the reason I have had one share of many items. If you want to see why I do it please read this post here: Patience is a Virtue. In fact there have been many posts in the thread you may find interesting since your last post in the thread here Patience is a Virtue.
It is funny that you would mention this today though because I closed out the 1 share positions of TVIX, UPRO, ZIV, and GBTC that I was holding because customers don’t seem to like it and if I want to take things private I can just take it private so the privacy reason is a bit unnecessary that I give in the post above. However, I have kept the single share positions for VTI, TLT, BLV, BIV, DBC, and GLD for now until I resolve the second reason I give in that post. I do plan to eventually do away with it but not until I get secondary accounts open for all my families accounts to segregate the aggressive and conservative money. I will do that but I am in no rush.
As always I am open to discussion and if you see a problem with my strategy that I am missing I would be thrilled to hear what you have to say, especially since your strategy has done so well. I certainly could fail like you say though I am doing everything I can to prevent that.
That being said, I struggle to see why holding one share of these items would be a cause for concern. In case you would like to look at the strategy temporarily here is a coupon code for 1 month free UGVM47469 which anyone else is welcome to use too.
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