Consider using the VIX as an indicator. Before this mini crash the VIX was quite high and rising even higher. It seems the Volatility and options front run the big move in the equities market.
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Question from a subscriber:
Hello i subscribe your strategy last month . Not a good timing ⌠Iâm at a heavy loss. I was unlucky. The strategy has now adjusted its maximum drawdown. Tomorrow the monthly subscription will expire. I hope you can give me at least the next month free, to see to recover the losses. Let me know your decision. Best from [name of country].
My response:
Hello! I hope all is well outside the investing in PIAV at an unfortunate time. I am sorry it has been bad timing for you. These drawdowns are to be expected. When you say the strategy has adjusted its maximum drawdown I am unclear of whether you mean I changed what I project or it had a larger than previous drawdown, which is true.
Regardless of how you mean it, I do not believe I have changed my projected drawdowns and in fact have warned that it would be larger in the future than it is today. Please do pay attention to those warnings. I highly expect to have drawdowns in the future that are larger than the current approximate 20% drawdown. I believe drawdowns of approximately 35% or more will occur!
I really do believe that Patience is a Virtue is a great investment for people willing to remain consistent. I believe this would be the second or third time that you would have subscribed or unsubscribed. You have every right to do what you wish to do. I donât know how well it worked out for you subscribing and unsubscribing previously. However, in the long run I think it is best to either jump on board and stay aboard, or to get out now and never rejoin. My strategy is of course open for anyone at regular price at anytime, but will not be giving discounts based on performance that may have been good or bad over a certain period.
I believe one major key to long term success is consistency. I certainly am staying on board and hope you do too. If you donât want to stay go in peace. I wish you the very best in life and in your investing journey.
Why are you posting this, I sense a certain angst in you as of late. Subscribers will quit itâs as simple as that. But you never know, they might stick with you with a 50% drawdown.
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Simply posting it as a reference to share with other people when they ask similar questions rather than writing full responses to each. I wouldnât say it is angst, obviously no drawdown period is fun though. I think I have been pretty up front about the fact that a period like now and worse will happen.
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This is a copy of a Broadcast Sent to Subscribers. I will be keeping my strategies private until the process is finished
Please read this full broadcast as there is some important information you will need to know. It feels a bit like ripping off a band-aid. This process is going to be a bit of a pain. In C2âs own words it will cause a bit of âconsternation.â I will try to make it as easy as possible. For several reasons, I am transitioning from using C2âs AutoTrade technology to using their BrokerTransmit technology. There are many reasons why I am doing this from regulatory, to execution, to order styles, to simplicity.
One fantastic reason that is good news for everyone is that I will now be trading with the use of live data rather than the use of 20-minute delayed data available on Google sheets. Also, over the last several months Google sheets has been inconsistent in the way it reads my C2 account and I keep having to update the Google sheets quickly to match. Fortunately, I have been babysitting it and adjusting so it reads C2 correctly, but I never know which way it is going to behave ahead of time. I could certainly continue to make it work, but I really would like to focus on having orders entered via Interactive Brokers TWS API and my live data feed instead.
To be clear I do not know if this will result in C2 subscribers receiving better fills. I will be monitoring this, but I do believe it will have little affect if any, since my strategies have much longer trade duration.
These are the steps I will be taking and what you need to do during them.
- I will stop AutoTrading my own C2 strategies. This will happen shortly after this broadcast. When I do this, I will leave the positions open in my IB account but C2 will temporarily not be able to see my IB accounts.
- Then Monday around 12 EST I will close all positions in my C2 strategies using the web trader, so that C2 will allow me to scale the equity in the strategies down to match the equity in my actual brokerage accounts.
- I will scale my strategies down. This will make some historical data have fractional share trades and will make my subscription and autotrade costs a higher percentage of the strategy, making my statistics slightly worse.
- When the C2 strategies are at the right balance, I will then link my brokerage accounts back up to my C2 strategies using BrokerTransmit. At this point the positions in the C2 strategy should reflect the % allocations as now. I will send out another broadcast to notify that this is complete.
- If I were a follower, I would simply do nothing until I send out a second broadcast then go in and adjust the scaling percentages to the desired allocation using the new equity level in the strategies.
Thank you for your patience and support. I am incredibly grateful that you are here and look forward to a long and profitable partnership.
For those that left these reviews, I am very sorry that you lost money. I am also very sad to see that you think so low of my strategy. To be fair I donât blame people for struggling to trust a random person on the internet. I hope that you donât believe I have misled you about the type of strategy it is. I hate to see you go, but I wish you the best.
I have seen multiple subscribers join at the peaks then leave after a 2 month drawdown then rejoin at the next peak then leave at the next drawdown. I hate seeing this happen, and if you are prone to do this I think you should simply never join. For any potential future subscribers you need to read the reviews below and seriously consider the risks before subscribing. These people had a terrible experience. I feel that I appropriately warned people, but most people overestimate their risk appetite and do not have enough risk capital. Literally a week before my most recent drawdown began I warned that losses of 35% or more would likely happen at some point. Even though I have not yet surpassed the 35% or more threshold the negative reviews started pouring in just one day into what is a currently at 25% drawdown.
Once again I think I have come to the point where I can say all that I can on my strategies and anything else is just repetition. Due to that I plan to only log into C2 as necessary to ensure the broker transmit technology is capturing my accounts correctly. Anyone with questions can direct them at C2 or other members on the forums. Subscribe or donât, but please whatever you pick remain consistent. I wish you all the best!
Recently there has been a pullback in the markets, especially with tech stocks so many systems have had drawdowns. I guess people are thinking that the pullback in the markets wasnât that big, such that this system should have such a fast and big drawdown.
While the system may be good in the long run it doesnât exist in a vacuum. It has to compete for subscribers funds with other systems. And there are other systems that have managed similar high returns over the last few months but were also much faster in adjusting their positions in response to the market starting to pull back and so had a much lower drawdown.
Just something to think about!
Welcome to the world of being a money manager. This is what trading with fast money feels like.
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One of the reviews mentions a negative Treynor index. Is that correct? I mean it obviously shows it here, but with a positive alpha and a negative beta should it have a negative Treynor Index?
A negative beta would imply it is less risky correct? I mean I donât give too much weight to any metrics like these unless they are based on very old strategies. This one is only 1.5 years old, but I am curious.
In this case, Treynor is meaningless. From https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/treynor-ratio/
" When using the Treynor Ratio, keep in mind:
- For negative values of Beta, the Ratio does not give meaningful values."
Thanks that was basically my conclusion but always good to have a second opinion.
âFastâ money, you mean leverage?
Donât you besmirch his leverage!!! Haha!!!
His C2 leverage is very small actually.
No I am just wondering about the âfast moneyâ reply, as this expression usually implies unethical or even illegal activities (?!?).
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fast money means people dont stay with you. Most subscribers on c2 will jump to the hottest strategy for a month or 2, they leave after like 1 big drawdown or 1-2 down months. most of them are here looking for unicorn. not many are loyal to a strategy
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Gold words. This is unfortunately true. This is very sad. 3 months of breakeven trading and 70% of clients go to other developers. This is how clients do it until they run out of money and leave forever.
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Itâs different for every strategy. While Patience IAV is a high risk system that could work out long term as it isnât adding to losing positions and seems to be using some sort of algorithm whose backtests are similar to the actual results, you started a large number of FX systems that all eventually failed and were then made private. With those FX systems, the subs that got out early are the ones that saved their capital. Initially your FX systems were TOS but that also went away.
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You failed to mention your previous (now private and hidden) long running system that crashed and burned and cost many investors alot of money.
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This is true with most managed funds in general, investors usually jump ship at the first drawdown, and look for a greener pasture elsewhere. Heck, even traders have a hard time sticking to their own trading system and plan, when losses start to accumulate.
But one thing is for sure : if the trading system is sound, then joining the strategy when it has already experienced a certain drawdown is a winning approach, assuming the trader is still following the same trading rules and money management parameters.
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Hello MaxTor,
You have incorrect information. Please study my track record more carefully. You are making the wrong conclusion. Plus, unlike most, I donât keep many accounts here and at the first failure I donât change my name, creating a new profile.
Have a nice day.
