The opinions expressed in these forums do not represent those of C2, and any discussion of profit/loss
is not indicative of future performance or success.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading. You should therefore carefully consider
whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. You should read,
understand, and consider the Risk Disclosure Statement that is provided by your broker
before you consider trading. Most people who trade lose money.
As most of my trial investors have come off their trial and the rest coming off in the next few days, I would like to offer another coupon to get another set of investors on trial. Currently, 98% of the investors are off trial and decided to stay and 2 are still on trial and ending soon.
This coupon affords you one month free of any cost to “Payoff Matrix”.
Who this coupon is NOT for:
-If you ever signed up with a coupon to Payoff Matrix, I cannot allow a second trial. You are aware of how I operate and my risk management. Even if you signed up and cancelled before the month is over. This is only for new investors that have not trialed yet.
-Also, If you operate a strategy and charge for it, this is NOT for you either.
I work in probabilities with my trading. I ALWAYS use a stop. All positions are day only and liquidated by the close. I risk on average 1% to 2% of my capital and never more than 5%. Most trades will fall under the 1% to 2% risk. This means stops are set on average at $500 loss to $1000 loss. If I have multiple contracts on, the risk is the entire position not each contract.
Why do I offer coupons? Because I trade properly. I don’t try to impress investors with 100% wins and no stops. That’s a recipe for disaster. I don’t try to impress investors with 10% or 20% DD on a single trade with hopes of it coming back only to show a win. Some traders don’t use stops or any other form of risk management. That’s up to them. That’s not the game I play. There’s no martingale here or anything funny like that. You know the risk UPFRONT. The stop is attached to every single order. If there’s a position, it has a stop ALWAYS and never an excuse why I don’t. You’ll never hear that I’m an expert timer and that’s why there’s no stop. You’ll never hear that there’s really a stop on a server somewhere that’s ready to kick in if needed. You’ll never hear that I’ll give you the stop tomorrow. There is no monkey business here. I generally send out a memo to investors that there is a pending order and include the entire risk amount in a dollar amount of the position if filled. Stops will also move to a better location to protect profits and never the other way. Once the initial stop is set, it will never move to a worse position for any reason. The only direction it moves if it does is to a better location to lock profits.
I also make sure I’m accountable. I make sure I let my investors know with every single position how much leverage I used to achieve the result of that trade. My aim is 1:1 risk/reward or better. Even when I don’t achieve that risk/reward ratio, I inform the investors exactly what ratio in R the trade did achieve. It doesn’t make any sense to say I have a stop that’s 10 points away if I’m going for only 1 point. That math doesn’t work. That’s why I make sure my investors know exactly how much of their capital I put at risk.
Those are the reasons I cannot allow repeat trials. Investors who took the trial already know this.
UGUB24357
The coupon has an expiration this Monday the 29th at the U.S. market close
Dude,
Spend less time on the forum and more time making investors money in your strategy. If you do well, the money will flow in and you won’t need coupons or anything. Seriously, just perform. Strategy leaders spending a lot of time on the forums trying to get subscribers right away make me think they know their ‘strategy’ is lucky and they won’t be able to do well.
Side note, I appreciate that your strategy is non-martingale (refreshing here!).
Because it’s expensive, investors would naturally be more hesitant to sign up even with a long track record. That’s why I offer them a coupon to see what they’re getting and let them decide if it’s right for them. After a month, investors will have a very good idea if they would like to continue the membership.
Again, the coupon expires this Monday the 29th at the U.S. market close.
As someone who used the coupon for a free month I will say that the trade leader is definitely focused on risk / reward, risk management, communicates the $ at risk before the trade is taken and manages the trades carefully with stops that are placed as part of the original trade and are adjusted to protect profits on winning trades. January has not been as profitable a month as December (still about 5-6% so far) and there were losing trades (which is to be expected). The drawdowns were small and he followed the trade plan which was published upfront. The level of communication was extensive, almost too much at times, but we all know where the Delete key is and how to use it :-). I was favorably impressed with what I saw and the transparency, but will continue to watch performance for at least 6 months before considering subscribing for $ because results (return, drawdown, etc) speak volumes and there isn’t sufficient data yet. Time will tell and your mileage may vary. One guy’s observations for those considering Payoff Matrix.
Thank you @PippyLongstocking for the kind words. I also invite any investor that has taken the trial to leave comments. I’ve had several investors use the coupon so far. Several decided to stay after trial and some decided they would prefer to wait for 6 months. I can respect both cases. Again, any investor is welcome to leave a comment and thank you again for that comment.
coupon expires this Monday the 29th at the U.S. market close to Payoff Matrix
I signed up for the free month & will probably be subscribing for many more as I feel real comfortable with this well thought out strategy… Time will tell for sure… I can def. understand why he offered a coupon, I would’ve waited a few months had he not. He is like a chess player who has his next 3 moves planned out in advance before his competitor even has a chance to take his turn. He is patient, & waits for trades to come to him. Some days there are no trades, and that’s ok with me. He has done VERY well on his “shorts” so far. If you are concerned about a pullback or a market top, you better find a good strategy like this that can make $ on the way down too! Take advantage of the free month!
I want to highlight these two quotes again that I recently wrote. Today was completely avoidable. These systems should have lost but that’s it. A small loss. Not $50,000. Or $10,000. Or whatever amount these guys lost. It’s not right.
If you’re an investor of Payoff Matrix, please feel free to leave a comment (good or bad) about your thoughts.
After today’s lesson I increased the scaling to your system and cancelled several others, mostly ES systems. Also, the warnings you sent out during the day helped me to manually get out of several systems before the losses got out of hand. Systems with soft stops or which move the stops during the trade do not have the right risk management. I am also disappointed in a particular system which uses options to manage risk but then liquidated some of them in the morning when the developer thought the market was on the verge of turning around, causing a much greater loss at the end of the day than otherwise. In such a case I would prefer hard, unmovable stops. This particular case was especially painful to me since I regard this developer as one of the best and most experienced trader presently on C2 but sometimes too much experience and confidence can work against you. But of course, depending on how the market moves tomorrow it might have been the right decision after all.
There shouldn’t be any excuse of not having a hard stop. A 2K loss is way better than a 50K loss, right? If developer doesn’t use a stop loss than we should put a hard stop loss ourselves as investors to protect our money. I don’t understand why we are not holding the developers accountable for not having proper risk management which is making us lose millions. I mean dump developers who don’t have hard stop in place. Dump 'em fast before you lose it all!
I still feel as though the real issue is using margin, leverage via futures, and holding short positions. Almost all the strategies that had serious drawdowns today were doing one or all three of those things. I think new subs should trade in cash or limited margin accounts and avoid systems that short.
There are certainly good and bad uses of stops. Typically I don’t use them, but feel as though I am taking on way less risk compared to a short futures position with stops. Again stops are important conversations, but to leave out the topic of leverage, futures, and shorting seems like you are worrying about wearing a helmet, while riding your bike on the wrong side of the highway.
He has a plan. HE STICKS TO THE PLAN. He emails his subs every time he makes a trade letting us know IN ADVANCE what the WORST CASE SCENARIO will be ( I think the highest amount we could have lost so far if all went bad was about $1200… and it didn’t happen ) . HE KNOWS IN ADVANCE HOW MUCH THE TRADE CAN LOSE. Look at his trade record. Granted he is relatively new to C2, but look how he avoided last weeks bloodbath. That wasn’t luck. He does not swing for the fences. He is not a gambler.
NO OVERNIGHT POSITIONS. Anyone out there lose a lot of sleep this last week? What about tonight?
I can’t say enough good things about how he manages his trades. I wish he could put together something that’s long only for my IRA. When you join, you will see, you are dealing with one of the most knowledgeable, professional traders on C2. Most of you lost enough $ in the last week to pay for his services for the next 2 years. It’s not too late to join…
Using margin, leverage via futures, and holding short positions - all these could be addressed using a solid trade plan with proper risk management. It all boils down to position sizing based on how much you are willing to lose or risk based on your account size.
Let’s say, I have a 50K account and I have a rule where I do not want to lose more than 2% per trade so all in all I am allowed to lose $1000 per trade. Now let’s say, based on my chart analysis, I have a supply zone for ES future that will allow a Short Trade with a profit target of 30 ticks ($375 profit) and a stop loss of 20 ticks ($250 loss in case the short trades goes against me).
To determine whether this is a feasible trade, I have to consider a few things before I take the trade. First, I need to analyze Reward to risk ratio. In this case, Reward to risk ratio is 1.5:1 which is decent. Reward to risk ratio could be lower than 1 only if you have a high probability trading strategy in order to stay profitable. For example, if your Reward to Risk ratio is 1:1 then you have to keep in mind that you have to win more than 50% to be profitable.
Let’s say, my strategy has a win rate of 70% so in this case, this trade looks viable. Now the million dollar question is how many contracts I should be trading. Since my stop loss for each contract is $250, I am allowed to trade as many as 4 contracts to keep my risk limited to $1000 (2% of my account size of 50K).
So my position sizing should be limited to 4 or less contracts if I would like to follow proper risk management process. I mean with 50K you could probably trade 20 ES future contracts during Regular Trading Hours (RTH) with margin but then now you are risking $5000 (20X$250) which is 10% of your account size which would be against the risk management rule of 2% that you have in place.
If you follow this rule consistently and keep trading 4 or as many contracts (based on stop loss for each trade) that will limit your loss to $1000 per trade, you will never have to use margin, or worry about over leverage, or worry about whether you are shorting an instrument. So at the end of the day, if your win rate is decent (over 50% with a Reward to Risk ratio greater than 1) you will be making money consistently.
@NormanBooth : Thanks for the tip. FYI, I am already subscribed to Payoff Matrix. Matter of fact, I have 3 accounts that are subscribed to Payoff Matrix and I am glad that I have only Payoff Matrix turned on at this moment. I turned all other strategies that I am subscribed to off last week in time to avoid the bloodbath!
@MohammadKabir don’t get me wrong I understand the concept and maybe you have found leaders that are the exception to the rule. I just believe there are some hidden dangers even when using stops and not holding over night etc. I believe this quote from Buffett sums up how I feel “ History tells us that leverage all too often produces zeroes, even when it is employed by very smart people."
OK you don’t use stops. That game doesn’t work for me. You mentioned you don’t use stops and take less risk. Let me point something out. You traded XIV on 12/01/2017. 418 contracts at an average price of 115.25. $48,174 worth of XIV and held that for almost two months. Unless you KNOW FOR SURE that the market wasn’t going to crash at the time you were holding that, that to me is risky.
Stops may not work for you. You can also quote Warren Buffett. That game doesn’t work for me. I use stops and manage risk. If I’m holding 3 ES contracts with a 5 point stop the risk is $750. I worked the flash crash. The best bid and best ask on ES had a 10 point spread. When the market hits my price, my stop orders turn into market orders. Now say we had another once in a lifetime event like the flash crash. And say I had slippage. Let’s call it 10 points more than my actual stop. So we’ll hypothetical say our stop was taken out 15 ES points away from my entry. We lose $2250. That’s a whole lot better than losing $50,000 like some of these guys lost. And this is only if we get hit with a once in a lifetime event. In addition, I’m aware of where lock limit levels are for the futures I trade. I’m not getting in a trade if there’s risk of lock limit down.
You held XIV from 12/01/2017 to 1/17/2018. You made money on it. But to say you’re “safe” and don’t use stops. I don’t know. Did you know the market wouldn’t crash in those almost 2 months you held that much XIV? That was more than a few weekends you held. What would of happened to your position if North Korea fires off a missile that accidentally landed in Japan? I doubt you’d be here bragging about safety and quoting Buffett.
Now based on all that above, is a stop for someone that only holds day positions risky? No. Is holding 418 XIV for almost 2 months risky? You made money on it. But how about the what if? None of these guys thought it would happen to them. Unless you’re an expert market timer that 100% knew holding that wouldn’t blow up, I’d say the 3 ES futures with a stop not holding overnight is much safer.
I 100% agree that what I am doing is very risky in NYFV even without margin, which is why I try to make it very clear that I don’t tie all my assets to NYFV. I also only bought XIV with cash. I shoot for a target about half way closer to DIVERSE for my overall portfoli like I have mentioned many times in the forums. Again I am not saying what you are doing is or isn’t great. I am just saying I see so many people talk about stops but neglect margin, shorting, futures leverage etc. Like you said you don’t hold overnight, which combined with stops probably does protect you pretty well. I don’t know, I am not a futures expert. Not trying to attack you and I hope you are very successful and around a long time.
You’re absolutely correct that most people don’t factor in leverage. Stops and leverage are only the fundamentals. Most traders don’t even have those down. Once they get that down there’s mindset. There’s psychology. There’s discipline. Then there’s the analysis. They need to be able to properly qualify the market. On top of all that, they need passion for the game. The market is a huge game of probabilities. They need to be objective always and only look at facts. If they ever catch themselves saying “I think” they’re being subjective. Most of these guys yesterday don’t have what it takes. They hold on to a bad trade like they’re holding on to life. They view a loss as a negative reflection of who they are and it’s the furthest thing from the truth. They need to learn to lose first before they ever become profitable. You could have given the best trading system in the world to some of these guys yesterday and they would have found a way to blow up. It’s not the way trading works. You win a bunch of 1 R trades and lose a few. Keep managing the risk and about 10 times a year the bulk of your profits will come from those handful of trades that become huge winners. You need the discipline to stick to your trading plan. The mindset to always look at facts only. The passion to review your trades when the market is closed. Did I mention record keeping?
I don’t think you have these issues. But a lot of these guys that lost $10,000 or $50,000 or whatever crazy amount. That’s not trading. And how many of them got lucky making some back today? Luck isn’t going to always be there. When you find yourself praying that the position comes back the game is up. The first mistake they made was say “I think” yesterday. I think the market has gone too far down. I think it’s going back up. The market could care less what they think. Once they stop thinking and start looking at facts they might have a fighting chance.
