Surprising Ends

I find it amazing how drastically some C2 strategies can change. They can go perfectly for two years then all of the sudden reverse all the gains. It seems to me like most of the time it is futures and forex strategies that tend to do this. What are the most surprising ends to strategies that you have seen? Preferably only post strategies of leaders that are not here anymore so that we don’t start any shouting matches. I am really curious what is the worst end to happen to a long only strategy that only used stocks and ETFs. Those seem hard to crash catastrophically to me.

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Primarily because forex and futures are over leveraged instruments and the fact that traders trade with even higher leverage they can make huge returns or huge losses.

For example, a 50k account should trade with 1 contract futures instead most traders trade 5 to 10 contracts.

Another reason for their failure is that the market conditions change and their strategy cannot adapt to the new conditions.

Thirdly, it is also pretty hard to predict the market direction as statistically it would be hard to achieve a greater than 50/50 win/loss ratio over the long run unless the trader has some edge.

This is why the buy/hold strategy will probably return more typically.

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There was a great stock trading system here called Topaz NQ100 M, it was extremely popular when I joined C2 back in 2009. Everyone was reeling from the financial crisis and the trader, ReneKoch, was highly respected and making money hand over fist for lots of happy subscribers. He made 132% that year. He achieved a perfect C2 score of 1000. But in the middle of 2011, he seemed to lose his edge or, as AlgoSystems put it, he could not adapt his strategy to anything but a raging bull market like we had in 2009. He hung in for several more years, some of them pretty good, but it looks like he has stopped trading now.

Rene had several other systems named after gemstones, like Diamond and Pearl, but it looks like none of them are being traded now. I remember his posts as his systems started to fail, he was so graceful about it.

I don’t see too many systems like that coming to the fore on C2 anymore, ones that hold lots of different stocks. Most seem to be trading index ETFs now.

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I remember that guy, thanks for searching him up VG2. I see his last trade was Amzn which he sold around 500… ironically…

I think the problem is combined. This guys obviously know what he is doing but is trying to please the subscribers too much (too agressive return on capital?). If he had focused more on the actual way of trading he would probably still be going on with nice profits today… Same with my strategy, I use both fundamentals and technical analysis. And hopefully there are enough subscribers which understand that boring is the way to go in the long run :grinning: Its “boring” but at least you make money, and over time you will have a solid profit. But again, this takes time…

On the other hand if you are one of the really good ones making 100% a year you don’t need C2… Or you will quickly end up with a liquidity and slippage problem as you have many trades in many different accounts (too much money)… Is this why he left C2? With my way of trading this is not going to be a problem since I have fewer trades in solid companies :ok_hand:

Hello Lars,

100% profit per year is a very big risk. There are no people in the world who for 10 years earned constantly more than 100% profit every year.

A simple calculation = 1 000 000 USD with a profit of 100% every year for 10 years turns into 1 024 000 000 USD. Growth is not 10 times, but growth of 1024 times.

Michael

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Hello VG2,

Please write more interesting stories here.

You have been here for a long time and know a lot. Please share these here. It will be interesting what was here before.

Thanks!

Michael