The Sean Kelly Trading Edge

First of all, you do not need to say you are sorry when you are not! Nor should you be sorry. What are you a Democrat? LOL.

The fact is you make a good point even if that was not your intention ( if you are a DemRat).

The reason I initiated this system on C2 is because I understand that there are limitations to what the software can capture or overlook. Frankly, the interface feels like something from the early days of DOS! I wanted to test whether it would truly stand up in real-world conditions. I began this journey on 4/1/24, and before joining C2, I did some brief trading on my own.

One of the key steps I take is to double-check the outputs from the software to ensure it doesn’t produce anything off the mark. I hope this insight helps clarify my approach.

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All in all, the system is tracking well. I do a couple of different things in my trading, both here and in my private accounts.

( if you are a DemRat).

I don’t see what politics needs to play in this. I also think its hateful the way in which you are using it.

When I said sorry. I intended it as “sorry I know this probably isn’t fun information to receive.” Do with it what you will. I’m sure you will make money if you stick to the strategy, but I feel rather confident you won’t have a long term CAGR of 50% plus etc.

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I feel confident you are a DemRat! lol

Politics is everything right now, my friend. Do you honestly feel comfortable living under the grip of Marxism? I sure as hell don’t.

And let me tell you, nothing infuriates me more than someone thinking they can tell me to keep quiet about it. Politics isn’t just a side topic – it’s the future of this country, and I’ll talk about it whether they like it or not. Keep that in mind.

You seem to act as if I am persecuting you for talking politics. I’m saying politics has nothing to do with the accuracy of backtests using Research Wizard or the very real criticism of “you have survivorship bias in your data.” Using “DemRat” is nothing more than an ad hominem attack in this situation. It has nothing to do with the data or accuracy of my claims or yours.

The word DemRat is being kind.

It enrages me to the core when I think about a political party in this great country actively trying to rip away the very rights our founders bled for, using lies, cheating, and outright theft to get their way. Enough said.

Let me get back to my system on C2. I’ve made a firm decision—never again will I stay silent when I sense the presence of a godless Democrat. Silence is not an option.

Like InteractiveAssets, I’ve had my doubts about the accuracy of backtests, and frankly, I still do. My approach with SK Small Caps deviates slightly from being 100% mechanical, as I’ve outlined on The Sean Kelly Trading Edge.

You can check it out here: The Sean Kelly Trading Edge.

Anyways here are some screenshots for today.

When I say it deviates slightly, I mean there’s a significant and intentional human component involved.

Backtest shows 100% annually during 20 years and 200% annually during 10 years using daily data on small caps. For sure there is the flaw in it. Survivorship bias, liquidity incorrectly considered, just simply curve fitting over the whole 20 years of history.

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Time will tell, right?

Thoughts?

Captain Obvious

It does feel like chat GPT. Not that I disagree with most day traders fail

Do you have some obsession with ChatGPT? I notice you mention it quite often.

I’m not obsessed with GPT. I’m obsessed with you.

But am I wrong. Sounds so similar to this AI generated post:

The High-Stakes World of Day Trading: Do People Succeed or Fail?

Day trading—one of the most thrilling yet treacherous ways to engage with the stock market. The idea is simple: buy and sell financial instruments, like stocks or currencies, within the same day, hoping to profit from small price fluctuations. However, the reality of day trading is much more complex, often leading to a stark divide between those who manage to succeed and the overwhelming majority who fail.

The Allure of Day Trading

The excitement of day trading is undeniable. The potential for making substantial profits within a short period entices many people to give it a shot. Success stories of traders turning a few thousand dollars into millions are plastered all over the internet. YouTubers and financial influencers flaunt their wealth, claiming to have cracked the code for consistent profits. For some, the appeal of being their own boss, working from home, and becoming financially independent is irresistible.

But here’s the kicker: day trading is hard. Really hard.

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) classifies day trading as “extremely risky” and generally unsuitable for most investors. It’s a space that demands not only skill and experience but also intense emotional discipline—qualities many beginners underestimate.

Success Rates in Day Trading

When it comes to day trading, the success rate is grim. Various studies suggest that 90% to 95% of day traders lose money. According to a Brazilian study on day traders in the Brazilian equity futures market between 2013 and 2015, only 1% of traders were consistently profitable over the long term. Another study conducted by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concluded that most day traders lose money, and only a handful can consistently turn a profit.

The harsh truth is, for every Instagram-worthy success story, there are thousands of traders quietly licking their wounds after losing their entire trading account.

Why Do So Many Day Traders Fail?

Several reasons contribute to the high failure rate among day traders. Here are some of the most prominent factors:

  1. Lack of Education and Preparation
    Many newcomers to day trading are lured by the promise of quick profits without understanding the depth of knowledge required. Trading isn’t just about buying low and selling high—it’s about understanding market psychology, technical indicators, risk management, and more. Many novices start trading without a solid foundation, treating it like gambling, which is a recipe for disaster.

  2. Emotional Trading
    Even experienced traders struggle with emotional control. Greed, fear, and impatience can cloud judgment, leading to rash decisions. One moment of greed might lead a trader to hold onto a stock too long, hoping for a bigger payout, only to see their profits vanish as the market moves against them. Fear, on the other hand, can cause a trader to sell prematurely, missing out on potential gains. In day trading, the market moves fast, and those emotions can easily take over.

  3. High Transaction Costs
    Every time you buy or sell an asset, especially if you trade frequently, you’re paying commissions or fees. Although brokers like Robinhood have made commission-free trading more accessible, other hidden costs, such as the bid-ask spread, still exist. Frequent trading can erode potential profits, especially if you’re working with a small account.

  4. Leverage and Margin Trading
    Many day traders use leverage, borrowing money from their broker to increase their buying power. While leverage can amplify gains, it also magnifies losses. A single bad trade can wipe out an entire account, especially if the trader is over-leveraged. Margin calls, where brokers require additional funds to cover losses, can spiral into debt.

  5. Overtrading
    One common mistake among day traders is overtrading, which refers to executing too many trades in a short period. The logic here is simple: if you trade more, you have more chances to profit. Unfortunately, this also increases the chances of making mistakes and being subject to high transaction costs. Overtrading often comes from a place of desperation—trying to chase losses or squeeze out profits from a choppy, unpredictable market.

  6. Market Conditions
    The stock market isn’t a predictable beast, and it doesn’t move the same way every day. Sometimes it’s choppy and directionless, making it difficult to profit from short-term moves. A day trader could develop a strategy that works well during bull markets, only to find it fails when market conditions change. Many day traders are unprepared to adapt their strategies to different market conditions.

Can You Succeed at Day Trading?

Despite the odds, there are people who succeed in day trading. These individuals tend to share some common traits and habits:

  1. Rigorous Discipline and Emotional Control
    Successful day traders approach the market with a level-headed, disciplined mindset. They know when to cut their losses, and they don’t let greed dictate their trades. They treat trading as a business, not as a form of gambling.

  2. A Strong Grasp of Risk Management
    Winning traders know how to manage risk effectively. They use tools like stop-loss orders to limit their downside and ensure that no single trade can blow up their account. Risking no more than 1% to 2% of their capital on any given trade is a common rule among professionals.

  3. In-Depth Market Knowledge
    These traders have spent years learning the ins and outs of the market. They understand the tools of technical analysis, chart patterns, and indicators like moving averages and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). More importantly, they have a clear plan and strategy for entering and exiting trades, and they stick to it.

  4. Consistency Over Big Wins
    Successful day traders don’t rely on one or two trades to make them rich. Instead, they aim for small, consistent wins. They focus on playing the probabilities and follow a long-term strategy that, when applied correctly, yields consistent profits over time.

  5. Adapting to Market Conditions
    Markets change, and so do successful traders. They continuously update their strategies and adapt to different market environments. For instance, the strategies that worked during a booming bull market might need to be rethought during a bear market or a period of high volatility.

Is Day Trading Worth It?

Day trading is not for the faint-hearted, and it’s certainly not a get-rich-quick scheme. The vast majority of people who try it fail, often losing their entire initial investment. Those who succeed do so through a combination of skill, discipline, and a willingness to put in the necessary time and effort. They often treat trading as a full-time job, complete with rigorous planning, analysis, and emotional control.

For most people, the odds of succeeding at day trading are slim. If you’re thinking of venturing into this world, it’s essential to weigh the potential rewards against the risks. Consider starting with a demo account to practice, learn the market, and see if you have the emotional and intellectual resilience required. It may turn out that longer-term investing is a more suitable and less stressful option for building wealth.

Ultimately, day trading can be incredibly rewarding for those who master it—but the road to success is lined with the accounts of those who have failed.

If you’re dying to know whether I use AI to write my posts, try something simple like, “Sean, do you use AI when writing your posts?” instead of tossing out cryptic comments like “It does feel like ChatGPT. Not that I disagree with most day traders fail.”

Honestly, I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make—if there is one! But hey, I’ll cut you some slack on this one. Since you’re so curious, I’ll even spill the beans on exactly how I write my posts for The Sean Kelly Trading Edge. Sounds fair, right? But here’s the catch—you’ve gotta ask me directly. Deal?

Hint: I did mention before that I use AI for my research, didn’t I?

Are you curious about the Sharpe Ratio?