In my opinion he is just long the markets with leverage. Not really a sophisticated strategy. This shows only that we are in a strong bull market.
Lets see how he performs in bear markets.
Up until this month’s two trades, I would have disagreed with your statement “not really a sophisticated strategy”. Seemed to me that he had some truly gifted timing worked out with the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 and S&P E-Mini combination trades. But these November executions were pretty crude in my opinion, and I’ve dropped him from my Watch List. Averaging down twice with the DJ Euro and once with the E-mini … at the same time. He was very, very fortunate that the market turned back up again and saved his hide. IMO he won’t be so lucky next time.
Adding to losing positions is one of its problem.
Another problem is that this strategy can only work in a bull market. As it is long only, and only buy on dip, so in a bear market this won’t work.
Most strategies have this problem. They can work well in one market condition, but when market condition changes , they can not adjust. Many people say they would choose a strategy that have one year good performance, or two years. That won’t work either. If you choose a strategy with good performance since Jan 2016, which are almost two years, this strategy is still most likely to only work in bull market. Once bear market come, this strategy breaks down. I used grid to look for a futures strategy, to set maximum drawdown at 25%,and yearly return at 20%, total trading day at 1000 days, I got none. I changed maximum drowdown to 30%, I got two.This shows it is hard to find a strategy that can work in both bull and bear market.
So one or two years are not long enough to prove the performance of a strategy.
If you only pick up strategies that are longer than one or two years, you are not likely to do better than those who choose a group of good strategies longer than 4 months.
I mean instead of looking for strategies that can do well for many many years, ( as you can not find them), picking up a group of strategies with a couple of months good performance could do better job.
Josef Wright hasn’t commented on the C2 forum much, but he explained his strategy a few months ago over on Elitetrader:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/c2-strategies-comments.306417/page-7
He says he was going SHORT from Aug 2015 to May 2016, and he says he is short about 40% of the time. However, that is only his word and hasn’t been verified on C2.
It’s not my concern that he is always long, since apparently he is not. It’s my concern that he doesn’t appear disciplined when the trade goes against him, but chooses to average down, “hold and hope” that the trade will work out.
I disagree this judgement. How do you know the owner of this strategy will not short when it is bear market?
Just keep in mind at C2 you only trust what have been certified by C2 record.
If you trust whatever people say, or whatever their backtesting say, you don’t need to come to C2.
That means, if there is anything that not certified by C2, we could not assume he is able to do it.
My strategy made 50% in first month. Can you assume I can make 50% in every month thereafter? No, because I have not done it by C2 record, so I can only say I make 50% in one month, but not in every month.
In the same way, you can only say his strategy can only go long, because he did not go short on C2 record. You can’t assume he can go short in the future, just as you can’t assume my strategy can make 50% every month in the future.
He is just promoting his system.
If i just see you eat beef, i don’t conclude you only eat beef.
Suppose you go eat with me for one year and has seen every my meat and you saw I only eat beef but never eat pork.You know there is probability that I also eat pork, but would you bet like $500k on that probability?
Subscribers can bet money on my eating beef, because they saw I eat beef.But they would not bet on my eating pork because they never saw it, and even there is some probability, no rational people would bet their money on that probability.
I don’t bet anything on what you eat because you are the one chose what to eat.
Real life is more nuanced than this.
C2 is not the Holy Grail and the source of the Ultimate Truth. And on the other end of the spectrum, developers who are not certified by C2 are not all Evil and Liars.
If I read a review on a forum that I trust by people whom I trust and from a developer who seem to be genuine, I will consider it. I may be wrong, of course. If I read a self-promotion of C2 (like “I made 50% in one month”), without anything else, I will not consider it. I may be wrong, of course.
Good luck!
Joseph
jozsika,
No problem.
Per your request,my strategy will be closed on you in the future.
Loot at you. Jesus… Maybe you will kick yourself out of C2. :)
TaoLi2,
I am pretty sure you have another name"marekj".
Yeah this strategy is another martingale. Doubles/triples down on losing trades. Beneficiary of a quiet bull market that always snaps right back.
Made big gambles at the start and won - that got initial subscribers. Since then, betting less and less not to damage the track record, or his monthly income from C2.
Good luck to those paying $200 a month for this when the drawdowns don’t immediately snap back.
I don’t see any problem for this.
Joe will go short in a bear market according to his backtest results that go back to 2001.
Best MONTH: Dec 2008… +62.7%
Worst month Oct 2015… -21.5% ( 2nd worst Sep, 2003… -12.7% )
Best year: 2008 +147%
Worst year 2010 + 19%
He will tell you this strategy has not traded for that long, but if it had, according to his trade signals, these would have been the results.
If you are seriously interested in his strategy, shoot him an email, he will send you the full backtest results.
I was in it for a while, but had to bail due to I.B. RIDICULOUS margin requirements. If you’re trading this 56k strategy in an IB account, plan on having a MIN of 110k in order to participate in all of the trades.
