TOS System vs. Other Systems

By the way, the ESSwingM060 was my first try at posting a strategy on C2 and it had a bunch of mistakes in it. I am only trading the T2ESSwingM1060 since I corrected my mistakes. As to your comment about moving $10K to IB the money and time are not an issue. Actually I have an account open at IB. It is the delay and hassle of taking TS data and using it in MultiCharts to then use that signal to trade at IB. There are significant delays in trade execution (more slippage) than directly from TS because I can not use the limited data feed that IB provides. Finally, I don’t really want to enter into a “flame war” with you, but I was just highlighting there are other reasons for not being TOS.

Since I’m retired and just doing this for fun, I am not really interested in complicating my life and having my trading results be different than what I show C2 through MC. The way I’m doing it now, if one of my traders gets a worse fill than I did on my TS platform, C2 uses the worst fill, so it is still more conservative.

I plan on providing my subscribers a picture of my trading monthly report since that is the only instrument I am trading now. Again, not the money, but the hassle and I even have an account open at IB

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Maybe best to you is to follow your trade to IB account and from there to get TOS sign

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All -

The issue is not whether there are good traders trading outside of TOS due to specific circumstance.

Of course that is true.

The point is, I have no objective way to identify the difference. Only subjective opinion based on an email exchange with a trader.

From my experience, Trading needs rules to limit risk.

The best way to lessen your risk is to trade with individuals (and make investments) alongside successful people with skin in the game.

Sorry to offend non- TOS traders.

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Braden:

No offence taken. I agree with you, that is why I am pushing for C2 to include the TS trades. If not, no big deal. This is for retirement fun for me anyways.

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For most customers, no skin in the game (TOS) and word ‘fun’ will create mixed feelings and will not help to build a trust.This is now and time and good C2 record can help.

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I use IQFeed for data, Multicharts for automation and IB for execution. This is pretty efficient and not expensive. I used TS in the past, not likely to go back.

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One way to detect to some degree if the program listed on C2 is traded by the Trade Leaders that claim to trade his/her program is to randomly ask few statements from his/her broker to verify if the past signals have really taken place at that price level/time. I understand that this is a solution less than efficient unfortunately the slippages that JimmyTann refer to are real and beside this there are other inconveniences as well for a portfolio trader. (technical and related to portfolio constraints) Unfortunately TOS certification for TS accounts won’t happen here at C2 primarily because TS offer a similar service although way less transparent.

TOS is a great feature and I can definitely understand those that feel more comfortable to have it, knowing for sure that the Trader Leader is on the same boat. However, It should be note that non TOS does not mean (in some cases) that the program is not traded actively by the Trade leader.

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People tend to trade much better with a demo account “no skin in the game”, when they trade with their real money “skin in the game”, most will fail quickly. So skin in the game is not necessarily a good thing unless we are talking about a successful seasoned veteran trader. And then it does not matter one way or another.

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Statistically 100% agree if you are talking about customers. All of them should take only trials on demo accounts. :smile:

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I agree! checkl all non TOS system with 1000+ gains.
these system based on 2-3 amazing trades and very regular trades after.
The “amazing” is risky trades with luck. if they are systematic they should do this all months with their money too (even TAKE LOANDS…). but people seeks dreams and run over o the 500-1000%+ return and subscribe to these systems ONLY after the success. now the non TOS trade seek them to stay -so they trade far less with fear or gamble more and more till he blows the systems.

with “my options” systems I don’t earn a lot from subscribers. more then that. when you earn 5-8K from real trading per month and 500-1000 from subscribers you first care about your money - but the long term subscribers enjoy this too.

100% TOS

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Would you want your money to be traded by anyone other than a veteran
seasoned trader?

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Marek, no worries. I guess you won’t be following me.

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You never know, time and your performance will tell :slight_smile:

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Just opening up an account in a broker that allows TOS does not make a season trader. For those that follow me, I am providing details of the system, its backtesting, and the testing methodology. Also will be providing monthly reports on my personal account at TS. Unfortunately, since we just started to trade June 5, don’t have that accounting yet. Will provide at the end of the month.

By the way, as a very experienced trader, the performance of my system to date is likely due to good fortune. I have had 5 winning trades in a row and statistically, this has only happened 14 times in the past. Again, waiting for the first loss, but it is hard to tell when that can occur. You never know. The 6th trade can be a large winner or not. Only time will tell, but statistically, the system will even out to be 62% correct after around 90 days or so. Also statistically, we have had 4 instances of 9 winners in a row and 1 instance of 10 winners in a row. We only had 1 instance of 6 losing trades in a row, and one with 7 losers. Still statistically where you want to be.

Regards

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Don’t worry, you’ll get your string of losers soon :relaxed:
Same thing happens to me repeatedly…

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No, that is why I trade my own account.

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There was one bright PHD here who explained to us he found no strong correlation between a system being TOS and good returns. So why go TOS?

Talk about misuse of academic titles…

Taking in consideration that bad systems blow the account, close down and aren’t included in the search universe anymore, there is a strong survivorship bias present that will distort any such statistical analysis.

And guess what - TOS systems survive…

To make it simple: TOS systems do not guarantee high or even positive returns, but they do give subs a higher confidence their account won’t be wiped out in a series of reckless trades. If you view this as unimportant, go put your money to work at Vegas.

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C2 is working on a search that reduces the survivorship bias (and the associated selection bias). See the thread on the Portfolio Time Machine.

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Looks interesting, especially if ALL systems ever created are there. I recall Matt writing in the past that regarding the matrix, for example, it is not the case (because we “don’t want” to see the terrible systems or something of that sort).

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I had to open my mouth last night. Today, the system got “monkey hammered” so the trading spirits got me this time. I knew 100% or 5 in a row was too good to be true, and statistics reared its ugly head again. Damn, Math works. Just din’t think it would happen in one trading day.

You really need a great sense of humor to be in this business. Math always wins!!!

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