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Why Few short trades


#21

i agree in general, but if you get into the details of HOW the past record is created, that will help to find out if the system is any good or not.


#22

I just don’t understand how this system should risk so much money on 1 or 2 trades.

This is not very smart trading. I tend to think emotions are clouding the judgement of this trade leader. Even if it recovers I don’t think the trades should have been allowed to risk this much.

This type of trading is called gambling.


#23

well I started this as a discussion of why no shorts, but, this Algo Short is a disaster. There was obviously no stop, the exit was a margin call, that is just not acceptable to me. I am sure I could find 1000 articles on trading that say never trade without a stop in place. And add to that I am looking for strategies I can put on Auto Trade. No way could I do so with this kind of strategy. I have learned over time that the drawdown statistic is the most important to me. We just saw “A strategy for YM” (name?) blow up after a long successful track record on out of control martingale and then a big margin call. Right now I am about to pull the trigger for Auto trade on “Driver Balanced”, the losses are acceptable and the developer runs hard stops and does not martingale.


#24

Sounds like a decent strategy! But keep an eye on any strategy to see if they start going wild and break their own rules.

The issue many of these strategies have is that they are over leveraged with no stops and on top of that they average down and occasionally double down.

I think often times the trade leader may break their own rules in an attempt at keeping a good track record while other times they become stubborn and refuse to accept a loss.


#25

I agree… maybe the solution is to just buy index funds and be done with it! The idea of active trading is to do far better than the indexes. So far on C2 I see great strategies that do well, but then blow up.


#26

Definitely some diversification into index funds paying dividends should be part of the porfolio.

Like I always stress, diversification into different products is important keeping a 20% portion on the more aggressive investments.

Its alright to invest in some aggressive strategies if they look sound but at the same time only use less than 20-30% of your entire capital into these strategies.

However, some investors can watch daily so they can actually have a more aggressive portfolio.


#27

As a side note, there are lots of ETF’s that mirror the major indices and paired with them are their bearish counterparts which should act as hedges in case the markets are in bear markets as well. Such as QQQ and SQQQ.


#28

yup… I know … I am not sure what I will do next. All I know for sure is that I want active trading, and something that I have turned over the trading to someone else. 2018 is the year I FINALLY decided that I am too emotional and not good enough to trade my own money. This was a big realization and relief after 7 long and very hard years of effort.

here’s a whole list of Mutual Funds that have beaten the Market
https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/best-mutual-funds-beating-sp-500-over-last-1-3-5-10-years/


#29

FYI, studies show that 4 and 5 star mutual funds that have crushed it recently (last 1-5 years) typically revert to the mean soon thereafter. Something like over 80-90% of the time. None/few remain 4-5 star after the next 1-5 year period.

Kinda like chasing high-flying strategies on C2…


#30

geez… what the hell are we supposed to do?


#31

Make love to beautiful girls :slight_smile:


#32

Probably the best idea.
Outside of that. I would look into cornering the frozen concentrated orange juice market.


#33

@JohnDesey, dividend bearing funds should be a bigger part of your portfolio if you are afraid of the volatility of the markets.


#34

Make love to beautiful girls :slight_smile:

Probably the best idea.
Outside of that. I would look into cornering the frozen concentrated orange juice market.

:rofl:


#35

Looks like algofolio short’s entire goal for his strategy was to perform well enough to get advertised on this forum, get a nice referral from a current sub, suck new subs in and then promptly bankrupt the strategy. Amazing. Seems like that happens way too frequently to use past performance as any sort of guide.

Just another reason why TOS should be mandatory.


#36

Past performance is plenty good to be a guide. Any subs that lost money is their own fault. His first trade alone screamed of danger. Adding to losers on over leveraged positions will kill any system in time. This was shown on the first trade. So yes, past performance had shown the sub not to subscribe, but they chose to be greedy.


#37

Because short systems do not sell well out here. But I’ll throw my hat into the ring, converted system to all short.
Hope to be of value and service to you.


#38

Why don’t you short the SPXS in a bull market? That way you won’t be losing when the market becomes bullish? SPXS is a bear ETF.


#39

Declining markets create fear while increasing markets create excitement. Fear will hurt you more than excitement will help you.

Using the ES for example, the market dropped basically 600 points from 2950 to 2350. The 600 pt decline lasted for a few weeks and now only 300 points down. In actuality, the market can never go to zero as the lowest it would go is the value of the assets. The low side is therefore limited in wild profits compared to no ceiling for the index’s value and wild profits. Add in a bull market raging since last election night, you really need to know your stuff to go short.

Go long and be wrong and time will heal those wounds. Be short and be wrong and the market may never return to that depressed value. We may never see 2340 again. For the longest time now, just makes more cents($) to go long.

Check the systems that opened around XMAS. Many went long around 2500 and stayed open after a drop of 160 points or 640 tics. They hung in for the duration as they do not trade their own capital. Go long here, ride out any loser until it recovers, 100% effective.


#40

May I correct that - It’s always the best to accept the loss and move on.


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