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A Strategy for YM gambler got a margin call!


#61

If I’m not mistaken when I looked into this system, he doubles down a lot of times, it only takes a black swan, or bear market to blow out your whole account.

the problem isn’t no stop losses, you can have a system with a reversal acting as a stop, where stop losses aren’t needed, but just trying to double down on losses always ends badly someday.

Lastly, when i looked at the website for the longterm backtest results, this 300%+ is an outlier year, so average returns are much much lower and for the DD it’s a pretty bad risk/reward ratio, even without the negatives of trying to add on to losing trades.


#62

This guy has 5 strategies, A Start for YM is a futures strat, on 6/12/18 he trades 98 contracts in a day?
At first I though they were all in one trade, but I guess he was just weaving in and out all day. Still that is a lot commission to go no place. It also is an odd thing to trade that way.


#63

C’mon man.
First - breathe.
Second - click the button that says “Show Autotrade Data” and look at the trade. He never had more than 8 contracts open at a time. How it works on C2 is it lists it all trades of a security under the same trade until the position is completely closed.
Third - Apologize to “This guy” or delete your post so it doesn’t confuse others.


#64

Don’t listen to Dog zebra the guy is clueless, click on drawdown for each trade - beside each trade - you will see ‘quant open’ and yes the developer has traded much more than 8, i see a couple of trades with 20 and 25 maybe there is more.


#65

Dude. Did you even read what I said?

Before you call me clueless, please let me know what dates he had 20-25 trades open.


#66

Later when i have time . But ‘qty’ is different than ‘quant open’.


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#67

Ok, we’ll all be waiting for you to show us those dates when he had more than 8 trades open…

:roll_eyes:


#68

CME4PIF and LRC Management with their posting have demonstrated their ignorance how C2 works. I wish they would not take space on this forum and waste other people’s time.


#69

I agree with you, but unfortunately ignorance is not forbidden in forums, as long as it’s not offensive. :roll_eyes:
As in real life, there is freedom of speech, and therefore you will see ignorance everywhere,
even with head of states. :wink:


#70

Typical response from addicted gamblers, max drawdown per trade reaches 25% on a regular basis. The guy is just buying the market with leverage, matter of time and he will blow up the whole account.


#71

Supposedly they have a very long term track record on their website, but the annual returns are nowhere near the 300% that most people think they will continue to get, they are far far lower and the DD is insanely high for the lower average returns.

And yeah in a black swan type of event you can probably blow out your account or hit 80% Drawdowns when you are averaging 40% regularly.


#72

If you want to be taken seriously you could at least admit your were wrong instead of changing the subject.


#73

Right? I don’t think I’ll ever get an answer. Still waiting @LRCManagement


#74

not so lucky this time


#75

Its going to be ugly if this market drops more for ‘A strategy for YM’. He should take another break…lol


#76

No doubt he’s feeling it in his account - 500% TOS. Ouch.


#77

I think I’m ready to call it on this one - this strategy is busted.

He just hit 50% drawdown. He’s carrying 10 YM contracts right now on $87k in the model account, so $8.7k per contract in equity. IB’s overnight margin is $6700/contract, so a 400 point dip from here = margin call and it’s game over. This is a Hail Mary pass right now. He already violated his own sizing rules by upping the max contracts from 7 or 8 to 10 on this trade.

The interesting thing is that his model’s signal performance isn’t terrible. Making 140% annually with a maxDD of 50% is about 3:1 which is pretty good actually. What killed him is leverage/sizing, as with so many futures strategies.


#78

Yup…your right on! Too much leveraging seems to kill strategies quickly. I’d say avoid those strategies that overleverage but those are the strategies that seem to attract the most followers…lol


#79

Yeah that is a shame. Smaller leverage and you sail through this and come out with your boat intact. Guess it was get rich or die trying, just like “Jayster” or “Millionaire Maker”.

Man, 10 contracts. Game over, can’t break your own rules.


#80

This is getting me to think of using a new rule of thumb: if a strategy’s performance on C2 up to a particular point in time is >3:1 avg annual gain to DD ratio, assume that it will average 3:1 over the long run - and that’s if it’s a stellar model with at least 12 months of live trading history, etc. In my experience it seems as if 3:1 is about the limit of what one can expect over the medium/long term from a good trader.

If you see 300% per year with -30% DD, figure that this will mean revert to something like what we’re seeing now, at some point over the next 12 months…150% with -50% DD.

If you think this way, you’d anticipate a -50% DD at some point in the next 12 months and then working backwards one would realize this strategy shouldn’t be traded at more than 33%-40% of the suggested scaling (in this case, max of 3-4 contracts) or there will be too much risk of blowing out the account.

On 3 contracts max size with $151k in equity at the beginning of Oct, this guy would be cruising through this drawdown.