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VolatilityTrader


#1

Curious what subscribers are thinking right now with VolatilityTrader? It’s been a rough couple of weeks and I’m trying to hang in there despite the 42% drawdown. Can we come back from this?


#2

over time maybe. I mean he is holding long tech. Nasdaq is down 25% in 3 weeks, worst December in history. over time I mean his holdings are at least real stocks like apple, caterpillar, Alibaba, lulu, wynn and other big names. So if you are willing to hold them long enough I’m sure it will “come back” But I dont know if yours or my stomach can handle these massive drops in the market everyday for 20+ days straight.

I been thru worst draw down than this once, it was a 50% draw down over 2 months. NOT 40% drawdown in 7 trading days. I’m still in shocked the strategy was rear ATH on Dec 12th and 9 days later we are at all time low for the year. my best advise might be diversify your strategies on c2, and hopefully one of your other strategy is shorting the market.


#3

I’ll be curious what is destroying his strategy. Hasn’t closed yet.


#4

Your point on the drawdown over 7 days is spot on… I just don’t get the money management issues in terms of cutting losses a bit earlier. I’ve been trading it at 10% since July and down $45k. This was right around when my strategies on C2 were all finally starting to produce. It seems like consistent winning strategies with good money management are rare these days.


#5

I think its holding a massive amount of big capped stocks like AMZN probably. With such a large portfolio its surprising there were no distant put options purchased when premiums were not that high.

I think the strategy sold put options to collect premium and now its probably stuck holding those stocks once they were exercised.


#6

Most of the strategies in C2 are geared towards making a quick buck with high monthly returns. There is no money management in these. Once the markets start turning against them then poof the returns are completely wiped out.

There are a few that are solid in managing returns but unfortunately those are overshadowed by the more aggressive higher monthly and yearly return strategies.


#7

Good points… What systems are you seeing good money management in? I’m also struggling with cutting losses with VolatilityTrader or sticking it out. Last time he was down this much, it did turn around the following month.


#8

On 12/07/2017 I had a discussion with Sam about VolatilityTrader. I wrote:

"Past two years market was going straight up. Selling option did work very well. Starting from August market changed, volatility coming to historical levels. I think his strategy is in red during this period with DD much higher than SP500. Just facts.

I’m not saying that his strategy will not make money. I’m saying that his strategy will see 50% DD again. Everything depends on when it will happen and how much profit has subscriber if any".

Any subscriber of any strategy should be prepared to repeat historical DD and exceed it. Somehow most of the subscribers completely is not taking it in an equation.


#9

@MrJosher, I won’t get into providing names since its taboo that once its recommended it starts performing badly…lol. The best thing to do is do your own research.

VolatilityTrader will hold the big capped stocks so just stick thru it as @OSUTAI mentioned. It might take awhile but eventually it will recover unless he dumps the stocks. Its completely up to the trade leader what he will do. My suggestion is to ask him directly.


#10

I mean what do you do? He bought Apple at $180, now at $150. Is Apple going go under soon? Mostly likely not, but it’s down 35% with record revenue. Same goes with every other name. The market is oversold, but it can be oversold for awhile. I don’t know if we can handle this type of volatility and NOT do anything about it. Even on my own personal brokerage I Long FANG stocks last week and got destroyed this week. I still figure most of them I brought at 40% discount since Sept. long term I should be fine. But short term I just need to stop watching the tickers. I mean 4% drop everyday in Nasdaq for 2 weeks straight just unimaginable.

I believe there is a way to turn off autotrading and hold the stocks. But I never done it before. Since he sold all the IBM today, which i was hoping he wouldn’t. Because I end up buying it again in my personal brokerage. Now I have to deal with wash rule.


#11

I am not sure what will happen when autotrading is turned off. But my suggestion is if you cannot bear anymore large collapses is to buy some puts for the stock. Buy 1 contract for every 100 shares. But this is your decision since I don’t want to be put in a decision making situation for anyone and get any blame…lol (Also, know that options will cost a premium so you should not buy too close to the current market price unless you know it will drop more)

There are more complicated strategies but I wouldn’t mention them since they are not easy to manage for most people.

I would not suggest selling the stocks since these big caps will one day bounce back up. But who knows when is the question.


#12

Yes agree… Look at GS and LMT. Those Blue Chips have just been hammered this last month. It’s frustrating and it doesn’t help when you’ve got Cramer suggesting gold right now which freaks out your everyday investor. There is no rationalism in the markets right now and Powell isn’t helping. However, earnings still look solid and unemployment remains low. Right when I start to panic and pull out is when things usually turn so I’m trying really hard not resist.


#13

Do You see any similarity between this picture with current market situation? This picture had been taken before what happened a few days ago (12/13/18). Very very ugly what should we be expecting in coming days. Govt shutdown and what would happen in coming 2019. For sure this is not coincidence. I just hope this theory is wrong! Fundamental does not work in this current market, its all about expectation in the future and market sentiment.


#14

Sam, sorry but I start laughing. In moments like this, all extreme theories come alive, even those that did not make any sense one month ago.

Regardless what future will bring, there is a better one with high probability. Each low during correction in S&P500 usually was retested in the future. It means you can hedge the long-oriented portfolio with futures, make it neutral and have a high statistical probability that you close your hedge with profit/breakeven level and “survive” this correction with good sleep.


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