Hi all,
I’m trying to trial a system using ITM to get the signals, and EVERY DAY for the last 3 days my ITM continually disconnects during the trading day and can’t reconnect!
All of my other connections on all connected PC’s are fine and my traffic diagnostic tools say that my traffic rates are all fine, I can surf other sites, email is fine, no other connections issues - although half the time I can’t connect to the C2 web site either.
Am I the only one with this issue?
W
Walter … I’'m only trading one system now but have had no ITM problems this week, including today, for what that is worth.
Randy,
Can you divulge what system you’re trading, and how you’ve been doing with it? As you’ve been around here for a long time, and I value your knowledge from a subscribers viewpoint, I’d be interested. Perhaps some others would be, also. I stopped trading any systems, with exception of having just signed up with RT Forex North, and will report down the road as to how that goes.
try his "My Analyst" page, Michael
Michael … I’m trying Pink Tree now (and did put a quick comment on the My Analyst page as Ross suggested) but just started it at the end of last week. My timing was not great as usual, but today just about made up for yesterday and the system does have a relatively long track record if you visit the web site referenced on the system page.
It is sort of like Black Dog (and we all know what happened there) in that it is always in the market, and I have been watching it for a long time but never gave it a try for one reason or another (<50% winners, big drawdowns on some trades, and not too crazy about always-in-the-market systems). But I’d given up on trying to autotrade any system that uses limit orders (fast or slow), or forex systems that issue overnight trades, and decided to give Pink Tree a try for a few months (or sooner if it hits my personal system drawdown point, which saved my bacon with Black Dog).
I think I have seen you mention this system before so maybe you have some experience with it also?
Yes, Pink Tree was one of the systems I tried, and, like you on other systems, hit it a wrong time with a huge drawdown, and exited. Perhaps prematurely? But, when you’re getting whacked, how long do you stay in the ring? That’s always a question no one can answer. You and I have had similar experiences here on C2. I hope that Pink Tree takes off from here like a rocket ship to the moon for you, and winds up in the annals of C2 folklore.
Happening to start a system when it hits a drawdown is not a reason to abandon it. That is probability. Every system here will likely experience horrendous drawdowns and/or periods of chop. And some people will start subscribing when it hits that point.
The things that distinguishes the successful trader from the experienced trader is having the capability to ride these out. Going from system to system is generally how people wind up losing their shirt.
Most people here flock to the systems that seem to be doing well. Unfortunately, most of those systems happen to be accidentally on top. As I have said many times, at any one point, out of 500 systems, 25 of them must be in the top 5%. But rarely is one of those systems going to be there 6 months later.
Astreaux, Black Dog and a host of others had that, and then started failing. PinkTree has a rather impressive equity curve.
Frankly, there is not really much else out there that impresses, currently.
Ross, I think you are right on… That is almost like buying a stock when it hits a new high and is going parabolic.
I think I remember reading somewhere a few years ago that it is a good strategy to try and enter a hedge fund or managed futures account during a drawdown period. I don’t see why the same tactic wouldn’t apply to a system that has a decent long term track record and a robust trading methodoligy, like PinkTree.
I noticed on the equity curve of some of the better systems that you can almost draw a trendline touching the bottom of the drawdown dips.
There are many ways to trade. Your thoughts are as good as many other ways to manage your portfolio. I cannot recall the name of this philosophy, but there was a decent article on it some months ago either in Futures or Tech Analsis of S&C.
Personally, I believe that using best-practice money management, using diverse set of trading instruments & systems, keeping commissions & slippage low, and watching for errors like a hawk are critical.
I try to diversify along every dimension possible. Frankly, the thing that gives me the creeps, is the first day that WMD are used, especially against a Western country. That will be the day someone holding Swiss Francs, Gold/Silver, and possibly physical commodities & defense/security stocks will shine. The stock market will be a nightmarish bloodbath that day.
> PinkTree has a rather impressive equity curve.
Frankly, there is not really much else out there that impresses, currently.
Why not Why Not? Smaller DD’s, fewer flat spells in the curve, better
Sharpe, larger PPT, trades both sides, has done well in choppy
and trending market, etc.
> I noticed on the equity curve of some of the better systems that you can almost draw a trendline touching the bottom of the drawdown dips.
Sometimes this is relevant to the system and sometimes it is
coincident to the market(s) traded. I noted some time back that
the Aestreux Fund had a perfect "5 up, followed by an ABC decline"
and that it needed another similar magnitude ABC decline to complete
its correction. Well, if you look at a EUR/USD chart you see a similar
Elliott Wave pattern. The Aestreux Fund has made money while
the USD has gone down and lost when the USD has gone down.
The point here, often made by Ross, is that hooking up with a trend
and adding a bunch of leverage, can make anyone look like a
brilliant trader… for a while. The Truth comes into play when the
trend changes, or the chop comes into play. A good method with
tight money management will handle it, but someone who has just been along for the ride will wipe out really quick.
Didn’t say there were NO other systems 
Although usable for futures (which is all I trade), WhyNot at $130 per profitable trade is a bit rich for a C2 system (although I admit I am not a huge aficianado of interest-rate instruments). Somehow I lose interest after a few hundred smackers per month. I will probably go live with my own system soon, but what to charge is a darned good question. I definitely would prefer a handful of subscribers at a few hundred than a hundred for a handful…
Although I agree that a good system is worth the price, I just thought Pinktree looks a bit more of a bargain.
Most of the systems I follow are now my own proprietary or outside of C2.
I would kill for a few good, general purpose futures advisories that didn’t head south once it cam to everyone’s attention. Sliced Bread looked that way, but it stalled out.
I only trade one-trick ponies (S&P, eg) because 90% of futures trading systems seem to be that way, and because there are so few useful physical/financial commodity systems that WORK.
GAD - where are the pure (non-index) commodities traders here?
> WhyNot at $130 per profitable trade is a bit rich for a C2 system
Yeah, that’s steep.
> GAD - where are the pure (non-index) commodities traders here?
The bonds aren’t an index…
>I will probably go live with my own system soon,
That’s where I live.
>but what to charge is a darned good question. I definitely would prefer a handful of subscribers at a few hundred than a hundred for a handful…
Except, if you only have a handful, and you lose 2 or 3…
"The bonds aren’t an index… "
true, but there was no relation to that. Meant that about 80-90% of the futures systems seem to trade S&P, Nasdaq, Russell or Dow.
Aren’t there any energy, grain, or metals traders?
"Except, if you only have a handful, and you lose 2 or 3…"
I consider offering a system as more of an interesting sideline. Whether 5 or 30, it is enjoyable, regardless. I would worry if someone hawking a successful system doesn’t trade it themselves. I have respect for vendors who more enjoy creating something that outperforms the market, but if you NEVER trade it, it is hard to understand your subscribers.
Hmm. I Noticed today I jumped from about 760 to 909 in the ratings (I have been posting signals for a month). Apparently these ratings aren’t updated very often… But I doubt too many people sign up based on a rating. In this place, people flock to someone who overleveraged themselves to $200,000 in 3 weeks. Still wish they would consider a unit basis for the many comparisons here.
Sam, I tried autotrading WhyNot (C2, TBullet, IB, 100% scaling with $200K allocated to the system) but found that after only 4 trades the failure to stay in synch with C2 and/or get limit orders filled properly made a huge difference between my results and those shown on C2. Here are the numbers for those four trades (made between June 15-27, 2006):
Trade #1: My P/L = $5,062.50, C2 P/L = $7,326
Trade #2: My P/L = $-15,437.50, C2 P/L = $-15,447
Trade #3: My P/L = $4156.25, C2 P/L = $5,947
Trade #4: My P/L = $0.00, C2 P/L = $5,928
My net P/L = $-6,318.75, C2 net P/L = $3,754 … about a $10K difference. Most of this was on the last trade where a limit was hit in a fast market that was the exact top of the quick move. C2 filled and I did not in my real account, and within the few seconds it took to realize this my manual exit resulted on a flat trade. Note also that the losing trade matches C2 almost exactly as these trades are always filled at the limit, while the two winning trades in my account average 69.5% of the profit C2 shows, which is about normal in my experience for limit order systems.
I used TB’s setting to convert limit to market within 1s if C2 reports a fill, and may have gotten better results using the TB setting to convert limit to MIT on the two winners. This may or may not have helped on the last trade though. I may try this system again with the alternative TB setting as although the $130 per profitable trade is steep for a C2 system, it is not a bad deal at all if the C2 equity curve could be duplicated, or nearly so, in a real account.
I agree that it is a good system and if I could sit at the computer all day and trade it from ITM signals I probably would. But I can’t do this, and must live with systems that can be autotraded for the most part.
Ouch!
Bonds accept "real" MITs. It seems this should work there
if C2/TB/whatever could use real MITs.
Sam,
What do you mean by ‘real MIT’ ?
Thanks,
Francis
It is a Market If Touched order. The order sits @ the pit or the
exchange servers and is converted to market when the price
is hit. No delays, back and forth from other servers, computers,
whatever.
Most of the time MITs in the real world are filled @ price.
Please confirm my understanding: if the order is a limit order, then it must be canceled before the market order is sent, correct? Or do you mean submit if touched orders?
Francis
My previous understanding of a MIT order was that it’s effectively a synthetic order. That is, it’s really a market order, but it’s sitting on the broker’s computer, waiting to be “released” at the moment a price is hit. No one sees the order but the broker… until the desired price is hit. Then the order is released into the market as a market order.
Because there’s no limit order visible to other market participants, there’s no need to cancel a previously-placed limit order.
I always thought MIT orders were the creations of brokers – not exchanges… and thus there was no standard as to which exchanges/contracts supported MIT. Am I mistaken?
