You’re right TT3 to note that this week’s decline was worse than last year because you have to go back to 2016 to see a similar loss in a similar period of time. But one must also consider context. Here’s the equity curve for an algorithm (blue) compared to the market (gold) going back 5 years. The blip at the end is this week’s decline. This is not meant to belittle the loss to subs this week, but it does emphasize another factor to consider when judging good versus bad systems.
Regardless if Xiv drops to 88-90 or not, I don’t think one could go wrong buying here, but of course leaders have to worry about window dressing.
On another forum I’ve touted Xiv since it was in the 20’s, and I said several years ago that Xiv would hit 135.
IMO. Xiv should and will be 160+ at some point. We shall see.
If this is any sort of a pull back. Vix is only half way finish. When $xiv drop 50%, then it’s a “safer” time to long $xiv and hold. Still make sure you have enough margin to hold. If the yield curve stay backwardation longer than 3-4 months, the backwardation will eat up another 20% of NAV.
I doubt we are in a bear market, just 10 yr yield causing asset price reset across all asset classes.
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Avoided most of this weeks drama. My VIX system went to cash Monday. My NDX ETF system went to cash Tuesday. The days of last years boring market elevator ride UP every single day are over. Angry bond market, New Fed, and a grossly overbought equity market should ensure choppy seas ahead. Good luck to all. Trade accordingly.
WOW @NormanBooth thank you for the vote of confidence and continued support.
