In the past, I had 20% trading and 80% development and education. But discovered Collective2 I want to get more involved in the trading. I really like this service.
I’m very interesting how do you understand, what is the difference between a 100% involved trader and 50/50?
I had to choose 3 strategies without spending too much time on it.
I crossed out those for which I did not like equity uniformity.
I agree that it is not objective, correctly to analyze all the strategies from the list, but I haven’t enough time for this.
If you like my analysis, then I will continue to analyze this list as far as possible.
75% trades are with position volume <=25K and 19% with 25K <= 50K.
It doesn’t look like position size control. Only if the trader add additional volume to the current position, but I have not yet figured out how to display this quickly.
About stops.
My fears are connected with some kind of black swan of 10% or more in the market, for example.
In this case, the trader will not react and everyone will definitely get an unpredictable loss.
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On Algotrader Nasdaq. The profit potential is pretty nice. It’s an intraday strategy. If you add your own stop loss to manage downside risk then its a real winner in my opinion. Based on your analysis what stop loss would you recommend $500?
I been trading for over two decades. It just if you are a trader you usually stick to one strategy, like a driver who drives on the same route everyday. If You are a developer you always trying to get a new better strategy. This is good. The only disadvantage is that developers missing the point of real money involved in the strategy. On a paper it always looks good, but as soon as you try the strategy with the real money the problems starts to appear. Because the market system starting counting your cash and your strategy too in the market system. Some people call it Money Management. The market will try to balance your cash with the total cash invested, so if you buying something it means somebody sell it to you.
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Seems better to go with the developer, than with the trader. At least former has something in his stash when market changes. 
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What is this in your opinion?
Don’t be offended by my questions, but your approach excluded one of the oldest strategies with real long-term risk/reward ratio which trades huge portfolio of stocks using trend following method with the stops and position management based on the equity and risk. So I just try to understand why.
Well if you say so, but as for me, I do not go with anybody I just Day Trade, day after day, after day, after day…
You are great, good job!
If your VIX options trader has a 90% win rate, a .68 av win to av loss ratio and a profit factor of 2.3, that’s a statistically sound trading system. As long as it has a proven track record over many kinds of market conditions (across 200-300 trades, minimum, or at least two full years of trading action), it might be picking up tons of nickels for years to come.
.90*.68* 2.3 = 1.41
Compare that score of 1.41 to the vast majority of systems on C2.
And if you find a system with a score of 2, 2.5 or even higher, make sure it has a long-term track record to back it up, to make sure you’re not subscribing to a ‘flash in the pan’ system that’s enjoying a temporary lucky streak.
Blessings.
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instead of 1000 trade. how many strategy fit your category with a 1000 days as criteria ?
Most traders are developers, that is how they became traders. Everyone would like to improve their trading, that requires creating a new and better system, to me that is the fun part, manual trading, as I do, can get boring. I developed my first system over twenty-five years ago, and developed my last a week or so ago.
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You may want to address your comment to @Tradingforliving guy. I totally agree with your statement (most traders = developers) and on my opinion separating traders and developers sounds at least weird.
So lets compare two strategies with 1000 trades, one based on 3 month period and one based on 10 years period. Both are good from your point of view, but I bet the latter is more reliable since it covers different market regimes.
Yes, been there. it was a lot of 90% win rate systems here at C2 before february 2018. Deep dive below the zero broke all that beautiful stats.
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I understand that, as I’ve traded VXX options in both low and high volatility environments. Apparently the majority of VXX and VX futures traders believed that the ultra-low vol conditions of 2017 would continue indefinitely. Then came the XIV ‘hit’ in early
February 2018 and game over.
- Position volume management practically not used.
- Some trades are with a loss well above average.
- Mostly two trading instruments.
Due to the fact that volume position management is not used, you need to be ready for long drawdown cycles.
I recommend stop loss 1% of position volume. In 70% cases, it’ll be $500-$750.
I agree that the market is putting everything in its place. But I disagree that “On a paper it always looks good”, if development is processing in the right way, you won’t get a good result on a paper easy.
This is partly why our team abandoned the development of automated strategies and focused on pre-processing market data to strengthen the trader’s capabilities.
Strategies tend to 0.
And if we accept this, then the only way to profit is a step-by-step increase in position volume in a drawdown cycle.
But not as averaging, you should save a change of direction possibility.
Stock market is trending and that why here are more successful strategies than on another markets without any position volume management.
In fact, you can do whatever if only in long and with diversification.
Unfortunately, we cannot verify this for sure while the market is rising.
But!
If we sort grid by strategy age >= 1000 and Ann return >= 20%, we get 23 strategies for Stocks, 2 for Forex, and 3 for Futures. Coincidence? I don’t think so!
Are we talking about spherical systems in a vacuum?
I’m afraid that zero. It remains only The Momentum of Now.
It is not coincidence. The reason is high leverage on the futures and forex and low leverage on stocks. Max leverage on stocks you can get is 2, and I didn’t see here at C2 traders having less than 2-5 on futures. More often it is 20-40.
I assume that 2-3 forex/futures strategies after 1000 trades have leverage comparable to stocks leverage, thats why they survived.
