My strategy, Innovation ETFs, celebrated its third birthday this weekend. Accordingly, it was added to the C2 Leaderboard’s Old-Timers List of the three dozen strategies at least 3-years-old that have outperformed the SP500.
Of the three dozen strategies on that Old-Timers List, mine has the highest annual returns (79%/year), and my maximum drawdown of 23.9% is well below the drawdown of the second-highest return strategy (which has a 66.4% DD).
Besides having the highest annual return for any C2 strategy that is at least 3 years old, among the 10 highest performing strategies on the Old-Timers List (those with annual returns above 36%), Innovation ETFs also has
* the lowest maximum drawdown (23.9%);
* the lowest average leverage of just .56;
* the highest Sharpe Ratio (1.55); and
* by far the highest Sortino Ratio (4.95):
Coupon : My regular subscription fee is $117 a month. For new subscribers I am offering a coupon open for the next few weeks at 99 dollars a month, with that rate continuing for 9 months. (To be fair to my few existing paying subscribers, I changed their billing to a tad less than that–good for the next 18 months.)
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This reduced price will remain in effect for 9 billing transactions. Expires 11:59pm 1/21/21.
While the strategy started with a focus on blockchain and cryptocurrencies, that is now a relatively minor part of the strategy. Some of the evolution resulted from changes in the market, other changes responded to some subscriber concerns, who sometimes had trouble taking short positions or trading futures in a stock strategy. Though Bitcoin futures were never a major part of the strategy, the last futures position closed 18 months ago—and going forward there will be no futures trading. Further, the strategy no longer uses borrowing on margin.
Most of the returns since March have been earned by investing in and holding technology ETFs, as someone looking at the public trading record can see. As to open positions not shown in the public trading record, there are gains in ARKW of $16,338 and ARKK of $1,934 and a loss in KWEB of $2,591.
Whether you find the strategy changes prudent or not, they raise the first reason that an interested person might reasonably be cautious about investing in Innovation ETFs: changes are, well, changes. The fact that the strategy is now somewhat different from what it was years ago means that the track record is more reflective of the strategy since March this year than before that.
Another reason that a prospective investor might reasonably be cautious about subscribing is that the strategy has had only intermittent autotraders—and investment records under autotrading are much more reliable than under the periods without autotrading. For those who are curious, the first of several recent autotraders joined the strategy on November 10, after 9 months without them. My return since that day is 21.8%; indeed, the slope of the relatively smooth uptrend since March actually got a bit steeper after that first of several current autotraders joined on Nov. 10.
I had considered offering a coupon in late November, but thought it best to wait until the strategy’s third birthday. Unfortunately, any new subscribers missed out on my strategy’s 12% return so far in December. If you are on the fence, you could always try simulation.
Whether you are interested in my strategy or not, I hope that seekers give a closer look at some of the strategies on the Old-Timers list, which have at least beaten the SP500 for three years.
In my opinion, the single most impressive strategy on that Old-Timers list is Sage Volatility Margin (previously Smart Volatility Margin). I know that he (presumably still David Juday) had a mediocre 2019, but to have returned 50.7% a year since May 2016—and to have earned more than that this year (+67.2%)—is quite an accomplishment. He has successfully weathered several stock market crashes and mini-crashes and the partial collapse of the volatility market with only a moderate 31.2% drawdown.
Good luck investing!
