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Hi All,
Please take a look at my strategy and provide any feedback you may have. Going on a mission to generate at least 2k -3k as passive income with only capital of 15K. You can double it if you have 25K.
https://collective2.com/my/K4DSPRC2B
Thanks,
S3Services.LLC
Hey, are you able to generate any subscribers?
Why did you even ask this? Did you recheck the stats first? A 90% win rate is fascinating, but more interesting is the -45% drawdown and the -2% overall return.
The equity curve is a little too choppy for me.
Just a little? Thanks for the chuckle Gary.
Wow that drawdown is scary. Almost like the great financial crisis type of risk. What is your trading methodology? Do you have any risk management or controls? What is your strategy exactly?
Hey James! I trade on momentum and proper money management. The drawdown is based on risk analysis through data gathered before that trade. Meaning if I don’t see a bullish momentum I wont take the trade.
Max peak-to-valley drawdown( 45.08% )
Drawdown period March 13 '25 - April 07 '25
How did you have a 45 loss of capital? What risk controls do you have implemented to prevent these type of losses in the future?
The S&P 500 loss
Dotcom Crash Mar 2000|Oct 2002 -44.71%
Subprime Crisis Nov 2007|Mar 2009 -50.80%
COVID-19 Start Jan 2020|Mar 2020 -19.43%
Trump Tariff Feb 2025/Apr 2025 -7.58%
You appear to be chasing return and not managing risk.
Some thoughts…
Positives (Lower Risk Indicators):
High win rate (92.3%) – Suggests consistent trade execution.
Strong average W:L ratio (6.67:1)– Indicates good risk/reward per trade.
High cumulative and annualized returns (33.6% in 90 days, 209–254% annualized).
Sharpe (1.71), Sortino (2.59), and Calmar (7.29) – These are strong risk-adjusted return metrics.
Current slump is very low (1.3%) – Shows the strategy has recovered from recent drawdowns.
Some concerns: Red Flags (Higher Risk Indicators):
Max drawdown: 45.08% – Extremely high; could wipe out half the account if repeated.
Leverage: Up to 8.82x, average 3.97x – High leverage significantly increases risk.
Monte Carlo simulation:
69% chance of 10% loss,
35.5% chance of 20% loss,
12% chance of 30% loss.
Avg loss ($308) > avg win ($171) – Indicates large losing trades when they occur.
Only 90 days of history – Not long enough to evaluate strategy robustness across market cycles.
Trades futures – Intrinsically riskier instruments.
Summary:
This portfolio combines aggressive leverage, short-term futures trading, and a limited track record, with impressive recent returns and high trade win rates. The big drawdown and high risk of ruin probabilities suggest it could be fragile under different market conditions.
this is by the way more red flag rather positive/low risk indicator. high win rate often means that traders wants to be right no matter what risk is taken.
for 3-4 month old strategy these are quite arbitrary values which can be between 0 and infinity.
or negative, after the crash
James, can you please tell me what system you are looking at?
My max drawdown is 7.4%
