Winiom weekly update

WEEK 1. 4/25-29/22. +775. 22.1%

WEEK 2. 5/2-6/22. +1236. 35 3%

I don’t know… you have already a DD of 49%… and the first month isn’t over yet.
Personally I would prefer a less agressive strategy.

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Hello Newt.
In some instances, the aggressiveness of a strategy can be tamed by the investor.

I knew a guy doing 200% mthly return on 5k. His drawdown was 50%. I wasn’t totally comfortable with that.
A friend suggested I follow the strategy with 10k instead of the five. Thus reducing the drawdown to 25%. But still getting a 100% return. Or even 20k, reducing the drawdown to 12.5% with a 50% return.
Trading is math. And so is investing.

Of course if a strategy loses 100% it really doesn’t matter. But that holds true for any investment.


This is the stupidest thing to do: you CANNOT reduce risk simply by adding more capital to your trading account.

A losing strategy will ALWAYS empty your trading account in the long run, even if you have billions of dollars at your disposal.


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Clearly I stated that there’s no cure for an investment that loses everything.

It’s not stupid. You’re caught up in the numbers.
Losing $2500 is losing $2500 no matter how you slice it.

We’re discussing drawdown.
If you had 5K, and I had 10k invested in the same strategy. The developer model is 5k. You’re looking at a 50% dd. I’m looking at 25%.
We both have $2500 numerical dd.

If you wanna talk about what good and bad strategies are create a forum post. I’ll debate with you.

Please don’t take this personally, I am not judging you in any way, it’s the idea I was talking about.

If a trader adds more capital to his trading account (say 100%) then a 50% drawdown would look like a “manageable” 25% drawdown, even though his system is a losing system with no edge.

That’s the point I was trying to make.

99.99% of traders cannot even make 2% a month consistently.

2% a month does not seem like much but it is still a huge 26.9% annual return.

By comparison Warren Buffet portfolio obtained a 9.6% compound annual return in the last 30 years.

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38.2% - Win Trades

Trades 552

Profitable 211

very poor numbers

44% DD in the first 3 weeks.

Change of long term success = 0%
Change we’ll see him post again after the system collapses = 0%

Good luck! :+1:

WEEK 3. 5/9-13/22. +936. 26.7%

By comparison Mr. Buffet isn’t trading futures.

You’re talking about a guy investing millions or even billions.
Most people don’t have that kind of capital.

2% a month on 10 or 20k isn’t attractive to me.

You truly believe that Buffet only trades stocks and other zero-leverage financial instruments?

Quote from this article (see link below):
“Buffett, on several occasions, has admitted to his own use of large-scale derivatives as a means to execute investment strategies.”

In the year 2003 alone, he held about $12 billion in FOREX contracts, betting that the US dollar will fall (he made more than 2 BILLIONS on that single trade).

I see.

So what kind of monthly return are you expecting to achieve?


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2% on 12 billion is a completely different world from 2% on 20k.

I’m expecting to achieve whatever the market presents to me without much fight.

Traders can strain themselves pushing to meet a profit target daily or over a period of time.

Take what the markets gives.

When it’s giving.

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True, but if Buffet and other high net worth individuals cannot even beat the market after 30 years of trading, why should we believe that retail (Futures/Forex/Stock) traders can do better?

Fact is, a trading system with clearly defined entry/exit rules cannot give us more than its mathematical expectancy, no matter what the market is doing.

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“Very poor numbers”…

That’s not how the profit sitting in the bank sees things.

Read somewhere that Jesse Livermore was a highly successful trader. Whom lost his fortunes multiple times.

Was he a good or bad trader?
Was his numbers poor?
Did he beat the market as they say?

It seems that our friend ynrao24 believes that a system with a low winning percentage (say 33% for example) is automatically a losing system.

Of course nothing could be further from the truth.

In fact, some of the best trend following systems rarely exceed 50% winning average.

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”
Legendary trader George Soros (the man who literally broke the Bank of England).


Indeed. Although a 44% and no TOS effectively guarantees a blow up at some point. :man_shrugging:

So true! Win ratio is such a misleading statistic. Sad the beginners fall for it all the time


Unfortunately the aggressivneness of a strategy fee can’t be tamed by the investor as well :slight_smile:

I knew many guys doing 100%-200% monthly on C2.
They are all gone within a few months. :roll_eyes:

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