Gilbert said: "THAT may get a cool mil or two in a fairly short while. I just don’t have time I want to allot toward this demonstration."
Its not worth your time to get a “cool mil or two”? Huh?!?
When you are the President of an Institute, Chief Trader, making > 50% return for many years for your now-wealthy clientele, and have such an impressive set of C2 systems as Gilbert has, who has time for chump change?
“Performance chasing” has got to be the most disheartening experience, ever - if it parallels and I’m sure it is the same as with short term stock investing (buy high and sell low).
That is the QUICKEST way to erase all of your capital and more importantly your trading psyche. But that is the way humans are wired - to somehow WANT to make that work!
gA
Here is an idea. Do some kind of “study” to see what is a good sampling or general basket of systems that flow through C2 and analyze a Bell Curve of when the ones with nice initial results - top out and plunge.
Then take an trading account and put half of 1/10 (initial test investment - w/stop) into 10 random systems that fit above (general sample) criteria - WITH COUNTER OR CONTRA INVESTMENTS (opposite trades, LONG for SHORT & SHORT for LONG)
The ones that go profitable before (say 10% system loss - a gain for vendor) STOP is hit add second half of investment. With that many positions at the “sweet spot” of said Bell Curve (mean point where systems severely reverse) working HARD FOR YOU, I think would be highly consistent profitable and easy to manage account. Perhaps a HUGE annual average should be maintained for many, many, many years!!!
Regards,
Gilbert
If you choose to do this, please send 10% of your proceeds to me via PayPal and THANK YOU! Now you can NEVER SAY I don’t work HARD for the loving, general masses.
FYI - still got your crash helmets on!?!
I’d rather look at the distribution of sharpes and APD’s, either one. It’s quite simple to conlude that they will negatively distributed with kurtosis exceeding 3 which indcates a fat tail in either direction. No study is needed for that.
Yes, but what of the idea?!?
I should start a thread and have people pick a conglomerate of AVERAGE INITIAL WINNERS - based on length (i.e. 3 months), # of trades (~100), APD (~.05), Sharpe (~1.0), APR (~250%), DD (~30%), etc.
Take 15 and randomly select 10. Invest a hypothetical 5k into each (2.5k at first then if initial profit (loss) target - ~15% - is hit, then “invest” the other 2.5k). Then hold on for dear life as typical system tanks and said fund routinely skyrockets!
If Kevin and Beau and Ross bank their emotional well-being on the fact that typical systems tank (and can be predicted by APD, etc.). . .why not profit from it?
Sounds easy. Oh and BTW if say 1-3 positons move against you and meet STOP criteria - no problema, move into the next three C2 highfliers (LOL). Letting 7 big winners run and stopping out 3 losers - - only to roll them forward into the next three is what you’d like your account to see, right?
The key is first off understanding that this method is to trade the opposite of signals and that AVERAGE JOE C2 HIGH-FLIER needs to be specified in detail with sampling of system components. (I know. . .the ones that everyone jumps on en masse after a 300% jump in 1 month) But yeah, some study needed.
Gilbert
FYI - still got your crash helmets on? PPT got nothing on this heavy volume decline. I put on a few TFS contracts overnight into this close.
Oh yeah, I forgot Beau is popular, skeptical critic of traders with 5 years experience! Licensed, registered and a very smart guy! What was I thinking? This is all second nature to the C2 boys.gA
Why don’t you do it, Gilbert? I don’t care any which way. There’s a big difference between saying you’ve traded for 5 years, than actually trading 5 years.
2Beau:
The specificity of this strategy only came to me today, but I’m pretty sure this strategy would have plenty of variability and still be VERY successful, but we shall see.
What is key at this moment is to remove any user bias. In other words the generality of the screening parameters MUST NOT be negatively affected by any bent influence. C2’s “The Grid” could work very well in taking a sample of systems and at first visually seeing what may be considered broad, general statistic parameters that define the usual suspects of initial high-fliers that as we know mostly dive headfirst;)
Perhaps a steady, high and consistent long term annual average with comparatively low DD that compounds into the stratosphere in a relatively very short time! How can this go wrong (lol)?
Regards,
Gilbert
Guess what? It just occurred to me that even though this in all likelihood would be well worth the endeavor - it would take work!
For one (after initial study above done) will need to test by simply taking equity curves that have ran up and calculate there impending drop and apparent “profit” from system. If they move up (our stop) we close out any and all activity with the system.
If this routine proves the numbers I am thinking. . .then actual systems will have to be subscribed to and meticulously traded with reverse entries by hand. So you’d want to further narrow the search for systems with those that this can be easily done.
Etc., etc.
. . .the beat goes on. Numerous systems and C2 to facilitate. . .but it takes work fellas;)
More work than I suspect people would be willing to put in (imho). gA
You are looking for a statistic that predicts/forecasts future failure. Lots of luck to you, because you probably will never find it. I recently retired one of my non-C2 systems that had all great stats, and suddenly, without warning, blew up. I did not see it coming.
Just to give an example, a few stats (and the space cadet developer) told you that Market Mood Oscillator would fail EVENTUALLY. Problem is, you didn’t know when. So you could have contra traded MMO and lost your shirt as it was reaching new highs.
You would be wasting your time with this exercise. You’d be better off creating your own system/edge, backtesting it, determine if the system matches your personality/psychology (often overlooked, but extremely important), walk forward testing it, and Monte Carlo simulating it for position sizing. Doing it this way is a long, painful process (I create on average 3-6 new systems a year, I discard/eliminate probably 100 times that amount, and I do this full time).
There’s an easy way and a hard way. I personally still look for the easy way, but the futures gods have a way of punishing those who look for the easy way in developing strategies.
Too funny how even the most versed and well trained “professionals” do not see through the trees.
First off you missed the point: “You are looking for a statistic that predicts/forecasts future failure.” Exactly the opposite. We know this doesn’t work. What we do know is that many, many, many vendors are systematically serving up losses (prospective contra gains) in a continuous fashion. Simply buy in opposite - keep losses to 10% on losers and rinse/repeat.
You can keep all your exhaustive industry standards. If you are discarding that many systems, you routinely are missing the big picture: success. To top it off in a public forum you (perhaps unintentionally) deride - “You would be wasting your time with this exercise. You’d be better off. . .” - my best and honest intentions.
Now I KNOW this would work, lol.gA
You are too funny. You say I am “missing the big picture: success.” Well, I guess that depends on how you define success. I define success as having successful trading systems using REAL money, documented and substaniated (see http://www.robbinstrading.com/worldcup/standings.asp for my 2006 and 2007 results - you can probably find my 2003-2005 results somewhere in google archives). I can’t figure out how you define success, unless you define it as contra-success, paper-trading-success, zero-subscriber-success, or imaginary-frothy-heady-rinse/repeat-success.
Have you ever wondered why you have no subscribers to any of your systems? Besides your random walk drunkard equity curves, maybe it is because you treat members of this website like easily fooled buffoons, or ignorant fools. I mean, who else copies a daily update from the Internet (Investor’s Business Daily), presents it as his own, refers to people as “prospects,” keeps talking about 50% annual returns for 7 years, when everyone knows it did NOT happen in real life with real money, and when he gets cornered, tells people to “SHADDUP” or invents some dumb acronym “troafl” to describe a member who calls him out on his claims?
I’ve watched your sad story unfold from EliteTrader to C2, and I’ve tried to help you along the way.
Start acting like a man, and treating people here with respect. Then maybe you’ll get some.
That’s my last piece of advice for you. Don’t bother replying now or ever, as I am done with you.
Well Kevin, I am going to throw caution into the wind and gander a reply. . .
First off let me congratulate you on your Robbins Trading World Cup successes! Indeed a grand achievement and I will look further into your achievement.
That being said I was ONLY referring to your statement:
"(I create on average 3-6 new systems a year, I discard/eliminate probably 100 times that amount, and I do this full time)."
I’m sorry. My understanding was that your many attempts haven’t yet found what you are looking for: a TRULY successful trading system. If I am wrong in this please forgive me.
I will further mention to you that FOR ME, true success with a trading system MUST be possible to accomplish for YEARS - MULTIPLE YEARS. Anything other than that (to me) is a waste. I am into compounding even a 40% return for 10-20 years, gathering clients and doing this routinely. Banking HUGE gains. The rest to me for a life-long accomplishment is trivial. DO YOU UNDERSTAND THE BASIC MATH BEHIND MY REASONS - - THEY ARE REALLY BIG REASONS.
Now the market malaise and trading these days has MUCH TOO MUCH to deal with and these conversations just ain’t cutting it! So I am going to get back to productivity and the following:
12-NOV-2008
Try profitable with high annual over the first few months with nice uptrending equity curve (before they hiccup). Taken from Most Looked At list and Best Systems. Also the Grid. Not too many trades.
eQuants Daily7 620%, 142 trades, 4 months
60.4k - STOP: 69.5k
Overnight in the S&P 3 months, 60 trades
526k - STOP: 605k
Super Dax 2 months, 41 trades, 530%
60.8k - STOP: 69.9k
Double Crosser 2 months+, 260%, 128 trades
80.9k - STOP: 93k
Cheetah Index 494%, 57 trades, 3 months
35.4k - STOP: 40.7k
Trades4U.com MultiStrategy 486%, 54 trades, 2 months
183.5k - STOP: 211k
Commodity Bubble 147%, 4 months+, 23 trades
32k - STOP: 36.8k
The list is endless. Just stick to 15% loss in equity for STOP OUT of system. Keep units uniform across all systems. Keep a watchlist of systems to move stopped $$$ into.
I only got a quick 7 systems - need 3 more. This will have to do for now. I’ll try and update this ASAP.gA
This is what I come up with on this so far Ross, Beau and Kevin. It really isn’t that HEAVY and it never will be so we can stop with the little, hurtful digs (the play ones are fine).
I am what I am - give me the break! Please don’t try and judge the way I act, unless you are willing to do the same yourself.
Simple google search of the following should bring up all the result on you?
"Robbins Trading World Cup "
FYI (to all). I found this link using the above along with "Kevin Davey":
http://www.robbins-trading.com/worldcup/standings.asp
Regards,
Gilbert
[LINKSYSTEM_31190907]
I put this in the chat area, but we will see what kind of a vendor Gilbert really is:
GLIBERT, Hey Ross: Does 10 very profitable systems most for more than 8 months and 2 for years - - during these tumultuous times count for anything?
ME : let’s see, GA. After commissions, these are your system results: $2,260… $16,217… $2… $30,610… $21,900… $9,790… $14,080… $7,967… ($54,522)… ($102,310)… ($54,590)…
FOR A GRAND TOTAL OF: MINUS $108,596.
Now what was that you were saying? ($108,596). yes, Gilbert. You have totaled NEGATIVE $108,596 while on Collective2. Is that how you define very profitable? MINUS $108,596 ??
You are a complete idiot. You ignore every reason - good bad or indifferent if it doesn’t fit you.
How many times have I told you that my CC fund the one above that is closed and has been for a year DID TRACK when it wasn’t (toward the end) traded with futures. I saw hope trying these and DID NOT need to further prove to you or anyone the viability of the HIGHLY-CORRELATED five month result.
You do remember that no one believed my KingdomCapital.com results were real? Well the fact that for 5 of the 6 months it REALLY DID track and I posted charts and explanations practically every day supporting this. GET OVER THIS ROSS - - IT IS REAL, JUST LIKE 2008! YES the futures brought this one down from about 115k to about 60k very quickly. BUT IT HELPS YOU TO KEEP THESE CLOSED SYSTEMS IN YOUR CALCULATIONS?!?
Haven’t I gone over this with ROSS many times before?!? NOV '07 I started using futures for the first time and YES in learning I DROVE my first two sytems into the ground. YES 100k initial capital all the way to 0!! Please remind me why you are here?
Then the rest is history. Many profitable systems during tumultuous times (they are going to look erratic and have mitigated gains) THAT HAD MUCH LESS IN STARTING CAPITAL - - BUT YOU IGNORE THAT TOO. Shouldn’t you have used percentages? You talk about snake-oil salesman LOOK AT HOW AND WHAT YOU ARE TRYING TO SELL YOUR VIEW AS! (If you have nothing to say, please don’t say anything at all).
Any way, you are not worth the time and effort. Nice try.
Well, I see you responded to this thread, and I figured it was to me, so I am torturing myself reading your response this one time.
in learning I DROVE my first two sytems into the ground. YES 100k initial capital all the way to 0!!
Is that what you told your subscribers?
When you started on C2, you TOLD people it would not be long until top 10 for your first system. This was based on your "7 years of over 50% annual returns for your real web customers". Then you crashed. Then you said you had learned and would be highly profitable for your second system. Then you crashed. Then you said you had learned (again). Rinse. Repeat. You rae highly profitable, if people ignore all your losses. Geez, Gilbert. You also admitted lying about being president of an institute and lying about being chief trader. So why do you think your words have any traction?
You need to decide whether you want to present yourself as incompetent or stupid. So far, you are doing both well.
Back on ignore. Not interested in your next clueless reply.
Ross,
Just the fact that you ignore double-digit gains from my systems - all positive - for all of 2008 against a miserable market, speaks volumes about you.
So you are just having "sport" in the face of those of us that have worked hard for years on our life ambitions.
Please refrain from directing any more of your games in my direction.
Regards,
Gilbert
My Systems
System Open Total Annual
KC E-mini $0 $3,857 +44.8%
KC Elite $0 $18,032 +163.7%
KC Futures $3,280 $2,822 +2.3%
KC Hedge $0 $31,830 +148.0%
KC Leader (closed) $0 $24,080 +82.5%
KC MVV/MZZ $0 $9,798 +1532.1%
KC Partners (closed) $0 $15,890 +64.6%
KC QLD/QID $0 $7,976 +797.1%
When is Ross going to present something for all of us to see. After all, it is evident to all that he is well-versed, always knowing how to trade! We’ve challenged him with the Canfield Cup - no response. Or even to put up a system with some of his great trades.
It really is a shame we cannot further learn from him. Probably too busy though with mentoring Wall Street types, trading his own accounts. They must be nearing a billion dollars by now.
We can only thank him for the time he spends with us showing who we really are as traders. I know I have much to learn and personally appreciate any good advise. Perhaps one day soon we will get to see some great trading from him in a Collective2 system.
Regards,
Gilbert
[LINKSYSTEM_30763562] - at least with Ross we get honesty. This he’d refer to as “failed”.
