Today was the single worst day in the market since February, with S&P futures pulling back 2.5% and NQ futures pulling back around 4% just since their highs last night, and my strats went long toward the top of the run up:
Believe me, I hate double digit drawdowns as much as anyone, especially as all of my strategies are traded by myself as well, and at a significant multiple of what’s broadcast here.
It is nothing new for the two strategies I run here, an MES/ES strategy and an MES/ES/NQ strategy, that they both periodically experience SIGNIFICANT drawdowns. I understand that doesn’t make it suck any less when they happen though, especially right after promoting them.
From the C2 Description for “SP 500 Futures Scalper” (MES/ES strat):
- Max Portfolio Drawdown since May 2022: 26%
- Max Portfolio Close To Close Drawdown since May 2022: 21.2%
From the C2 Description for “SP500/NASDAQ Futures Scalper” (MES/ES/NQ strat):
…regular drawdowns of 5%-10%, six drawdowns touching 15%, and one drawdown touching 30% in early November. YOU NEED TO BE OK RIDING OUT DOUBLE DIGIT DRAWDOWNS, OR THIS STRATEGY IS NOT FOR YOU. I know that’s easy to say but a lot harder to do when you’re in it. I’m right there with you, as I’m trading this with my own funds as well, so your drawdowns are my drawdowns.
For the MES/ES strategy, we are at about an 11.2% drawdown since it’s peak on August 15, and at about -5.6% for August currently. The previous two months netted 20.7% ROI, so it is still WELL in the green for the last three months.
For the NQ strategy, after the BRUTAL Nasdaq drawdown through today, it’s at about an 18% drawdown since its peak on August 15, and at about -13% for August currently. The previous two months netted 16.8% ROI, so THIS strategy (at least so far) is still well in the green for the last three months.
The S&P is down over 5% for August and the NASDAQ is down almost 8%, for the worst month of 2023 so far. Pretty much EVERYONE is red this month (kudos to you if you’re the exception). So yes, while it SUCKS to be going through a big drawdown, ESPECIALLY right after promoting these strategies, these drawdowns are (so far) within the bounds of known and communicated drawdown ranges.
I don’t begrudge ANYONE that wants to pull out, and if you just jumped in in the last week, then your sting is compounded, and I totally get that. But the strategies are, at least so far, doing what they have done for 16 months live (and in backtesting to Jan 2020), which is netting positive EVERY quarter to date, with significant quarterly ROI, but unfortunately including periodic painful drawdowns. We are in one now.
