The Journey..Week-to-Week

Trading and Markets
1

What’s wrong with this picture?
In my trading this week…
Up over $2200 @24 trades in the US session. Drawdown around 7 to 8%.
Down over $1200 @57 trades in the Overnight session. Drawdown around 12 to 13%.

Is it time to abandon overnight?

A guy once told me that I was a trend trader who just wouldn’t admit too it.
He said it like it was a bad thing.

Just being analytical out loud guys…

2

Hard to say, if your trading stock index futures the recently( last 6 months or so) the larger moves have come in the overnight session.
You don’t mention the time frame of these observations? Is this a month, 3 months, 6 months or a year?
You don’t mention if these are open and closed in day session and or open and closed in the night session or started in the day and closed in the night?

Nobody likes loosing money but I would not make any changes to the system in the short-term and if the drawdown is still within what you could expect prior to this observation. If this is not expected then I might a)reduced trade size in the overnight, B) Stop trading overnight, C) test if a equity curve control strategy could be employed to the pm session to effectively stop overnight and when equity recovers consider restarting the overnight trades.

just my 0.02c. and thanks for sharing the question.

1 Like
3

Thanks for the informative response.
It’s worth far more than 2 cents. More like batting a thousand.

Your first suggestion was also my first observation.
Lower the number of contracts.

Quitting overnight altogether was my second. But there are times i do very well overnight. Though I prefer making money with the least amount of drawdown.

Finally, the big picture. I only need to make $750 weekly to achieve a 60% monthly return.
Maybe I will start the week in the US session. Then only employ overnight trading if it’s required to reach my weekly profit target.

You are so right. The overnight has been providing very profitable opportunities in the last few months.

4

11/23/20–11/27/20

Horrendous way to end the trading week. Worst Thanksgiving ever.
I should have just stuck to turkey and dressing.

The problem was lapse of focus. Failure to stay making moves toward the end goal.

Recovery is imminent.

5

11/30/20–12/04/20

Question:
Well well well Mr. Moneymaker. It doesn’t appear you’re making much money. Clearly you are not as good as Mr. Powell.
What say you sir?
Answer:
This is true. At the moment. As a trader I am not afforded making excuses as an option. So I will just keep it real.
A glance through my trade history will show several large one trade losses. I believe this is the gist of my current issues. That said, the mindset during those trades is what must be combated. My conclusion is too many contracts are being held in wait-and-see mode. The underlying mindset is believing you know what is about to transpire in the market. One must always trade from a state of i don’t know what’s coming next.

Question:
Fair enough. So how do you propose to combat this mindset going forward Mr. Moneymaker?

Answer:
Mindsets can never be completely defeated. Discipline lapses will exist until the end of time. This is a casualty of the human psyche.
All strategy is ongoing in the quest for consistency. Thus I will employ the following.
*Reduce max open contracts to a total of 4
*Max of 3 on the MNQ.
*Max of 4 on the MYM.
*Only trade 1 contract in wait-and-see mode.
*Remember that this is a journey. Not a race to $3000 monthly.

Question:
Fair enough. And we will hold you to these strategy adjustments.
Any final words sir?

Answer:
VERILY I SAY UNTO THEE.

I WILL NOT ALLOW THE MARKET TO DEFEAT ME ON MY MISSION.