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Profit sinusoid is not good and the max volume position very different and first I wanted to drop it, but
In description we can see:
I manage risk based on the recent of account balance. Therefore, the number of lot size is not fixed. It depends on the size of pips stop loss.
If risk 1% ($100/10k):
SL 10 pips = 10 lots.
SL 100 pips = 1 lot.
Drawdown chart confirms this. So I added it to portfolio.
Approved.
Blockquote
If I’m not mistaken, above comments were posted Sep 9th about Swing.Trading; then Sep 20 - Nov 2 that system experiences 52.1% drawdown.
I’d have to wonder about your analysis criteria to select systems.
A great example of how the system’s profit in ticks or percentages per trade most often tends to zero.
This strategy has a terrible profit sinusoid, in 500 trades.
It keeps the risk per position at 1%.
The drawdown is not associated with a change in strategy, or incorrect control of the position volume, this results from a poor entry system.
Since the cycle seems to the end, and the trader adheres to his strategy (the same risk per trade and reset start lot), I will leave this strategy in the portfolio as planned for 6 months.
I honestly think that over analyzing a system with statistics like your method is quite useless since the best way to judge a system is to take a look at how it trades and what it trades and will it be able to handle drawdowns properly or not. The monthly profits and drawdowns can also provide indications but at the same time every system will go through drawdown periods.
Its not that straightforward to analyze a system especially the ones that trade with diverse instruments.
I like this topic but I definitely don’t think it can be applied as the only criteria in selecting a trading system.
In 99.9% of cases there is a direct correlation between the percentage of profitable trades and the strategy that is used for this. In 0.1% you ran into Paul Muad’Dib.
This strategy is averaging down trades.
Proofs is average (9.12 days) and max trade duration (483 days!).
I would also like to draw attention to the chart Average Position Volume. As you can see, the position volume has increased significantly, so the place for maneuver (averaging) is becoming less.
All such strategies end the same way: once the balance for averaging are exhausted, there is a collapse (margin call).
Small start position volume can delay this for a long time with some luck, but this is not about this strategy.
From strategy description:
3)Prices fall faster than they rise.
This phrase came from the stock market, and it is absurd for the forex market.
USDJPY, EURUSD What means short for USD in these pairs?
There are few trades to analyze, but everything looks the same as for the strategy above.
Average trade duration - 4.4 days.
Max trade duration - 79.9 days.
I would like to note that the start position volume is quite high, so this strategy collapse sooner.
I recommend avoiding such strategies, you may no luck, and the collapse will come sooner than you pay back your participation.
I can not understand. Why is a trading idea called a trade here? One trade is when you bought or sold something. And here, within the framework of one trading idea, I can make 20-30-40-50 trades. And they will write to me that one trade has passed.
In my system, I make more than 1000 trades per year, and here, according to my system, 299 “trades” are completed in 2 years. Where is the logic?
This is a very good list, but you’re missing one important point - look for criteria that matches the type of trading you want to execute. Your thresholds makes sense for futures and forex trading but is way off base for swing trading strategies like mine (which only trades about 10 times per year and will always have a win rate above 60%).
Besides that, I wish this list could be promoted or pinned at the top of the forums for new users to read.
MAP,
You’re right, I recently made two trades in one direction and was surprised by one record.
This makes inaccurate position volume management estimates, and it’s a problem.
I would like to receive a comment from Matthew on this subject: is it correct and why?
Sure, I am not an expert on the stock market, and my analysis goes through the prism of the experience gained in futures and forex.
I agree that the stock market is a differ world, a rising trend world with low leverage.
But the assessment of the number of trades still seems more objective to me than just time.
What criteria would you evaluate the strategy for the stock market and how many trades would it need for this?
This is really a problem. New customers do not know and do not understand this. They believe the eyes. A person sees 1 lot, 1 trade is normal, and the next trade is 38 lots and 1 trade. And the client thinks that I increased the risks or started martingale, although there were 25 trades in this trade.
To get 1000 trades here I need to spend at least 7 years. Although in fact I need only 1 year.
Matthew, where is the logic? Your trade should be called a trading idea in which many trades will be visible.
MAP, I can see your point but I imagine it could be quite disruptive to change wholesale to a different stats model to integrate your idea about tallying all sub-trades as trades.
As an alternative, with essentially no disruption, I’d suggest that a new section of statistics could be added to the (already extensive) stats page, where the calculations include all the sub-trades as individual trades. This would make your concept of trades and the statistics generated from them available for due diligence, but would still make the current approach available for standardized comparison across all strategies.
To evaluate a swing strategy I wouldn’t start with a fixed amount of time or number of trades. First I’d try to find strategies with a profit factor of at least 4:1, win rates > 70% and average holding period > 14 days (these numbers would be for longer term swings). Then I’d look back at the last few market swings in the time frame that I’m interested in trading (3 or 4 swings for monthly swings and more as your time frame decreases) and do some qualitative analysis. I’d plot the trades and where they occurred in relation to the market swings and ask myself:
Was the trader abler to accurately determine when the market was pivoting?
How much of the move higher/lower was the trader able to capture?
Did the trader get out early during trends, over trade during ranges/trends, or hold on too long during draw downs?
That would be my criteria as a medium term trader. But, of course, take that with a grain of salt. That’s also the way I trade and is the criteria that my Ethos Swing strategy tries to achieve.
Great job! Nobody found this problem during last 18+ years while C2 exists. Customers are in danger!!!
This is actually what happens when you are increasing position in the instrument (more risk) or you are averaging down (=martingale) in your “trading ideas”. Too bad that you still don’t understand it.
Work better to improve your results. You are not very good. What kind of mod do you have? Indicate how to trade. I myself know. As a result, you look at the adviser and he trades just awful and also gives out tips on how to trade others. Think about yourself better than giving others tips and teasing them. Greed, anger and envy will destroy you.
Guys, let’s go without personal insults in this thread!
There is a class of long-term strategies that increase the position as the trend progresses, and each position may have a separate risk. Each trade in it is essentially independent.
With C2 Record, there will be one strange averaged record.
v1Trader offered a good variant for display in the totals, but it is important to have separated records in csv.
@MAP I’ve asked you several times before and I’ll do it one more time - please be polite and read carefully what other people post. I understand that english is not your native language (nor is mine), but make an effort please. I didn’t give any advice or tease you. I just said sorry that you don’t recognize that increasing of the position in the instrument during drawdown increases the risks and is called martingale-type trading. Doesn’t matter if you consider it as 10 trades or single trade.
Risk of tomorrow open with the unfavorable gap larger than your stops puts independence of the risks of separate positions in the same instrument under big question.
For example, @MAP made 19 transactions in the single instrument (as shown above). As a subscriber I am not interested in the results of that 13 entries and 6 exists. The only important results are: (1) if he get profit or loss finally after he got out of the instrument and (2) what was the drawdown while he maintained position in this instrument. And C2 shows this.
PS I’ve seen a lot of fancy trading styles and considerations, mainly all that deviations and considerations were used to justify questionable moments of trading.
This may be enough for total results but for in-depth analysis - no.
I appreciate C2 for a lot of data and more data is even better. We need more data!
