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Is Gusher Bleeding Out?

Ouch. Gusher has hit an artery.

Down 34%, hope everyone’s ok.

Well, it’s hard to make 1272% ROI in less than 6 months without experiencing a (still manageable) drawdown.

In trading, to win big you have to risk more, there is no way around this.

I don’t understand why you would risk such a large drawdown, when you could easily exit or reverse position instead.

Mostly agree. Can’t see his ongoing trades that are going south obviously, but there can be the following additional reasons: Price can gap outside of your control (stops) unless you’re hedged by options. His max leverage used is 45x which carries insane gap risk (like, what you gonna do on a 3% gap caused by Powell?). The fact that currencies rarely gap much is not good enough, and he’s in far more volatile stuff like crude (and stock indices, which can be considered middle ground).

He does seem to have alpha (if C2 calculations can be trusted), just trading at least twice as leveraged as he should, just IMHO. Of course, you can actually manually adjust that by scale factor…

This strategy rules are not unique (its mainly an average down losers) strategy. There will be good periods and periods where it will get wiped out.

Anytime a strategy adds to losers without a specified stop percentage its doomed to crash hard.

But I like to wish the trade leader luck since this kind of strategy can last awhile in a good trending market. (unfortunately we aren’t in one now…lol) :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

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Yes, it is a mathematical certainty.

For the simple reason that the market (or casinos) will always have “more money” than the trader (gambler).

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Right, went through his public trade record and it looks to do a fair bit of averaging down, though not martingaling all the time. I’m curious how much averaging down contributes to (hence fake) alpha of a strategy though; some maths person can probably answer.

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What happened Gusher now?

Hi,

You can see a few new comments about Gusher here:

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