QuantStat2 Futures MISSED the goal

End of month results:
$1783 in profits. Clearly I’m disappointed with this amount. I did not hit my goal of $5k. Yes I hit it last month. Yes I’m up $10k since starting. But all that doesn’t mean much to me. I care about right now. How am I doing in the moment not what I’ve already done. I’d obviously much rather miss my goal and deliver a $2k month vs. a loss but I’m still disappointed. I can make all kinds of excuses but I won’t. I take full responsibility. The one thing I will promise is I’m now fired up and will come back and work that much harder next month. I’ll take this weekend to regroup and come back fresh for October. Have a good weekend. Ronnie

Thanks Marekj. That’s why I didn’t force trades just to hit a goal. I’d rather miss my goal and look bad instead of putting my guys at risk. Either way I’m ready to work that much harder. Have a good weekend.

Do you feel this will shatter people’s confidence in your system? Meeting a goal only half way like this? Could it become a $0 or a negative next month?

You meant system developers? They are confident in the system even before started. :slight_smile:

I’ve been open 2 months and up $10,000. People have to decide I can’t make that decision for them. I’ve set very strict rules on what I can and can’t do. The rules I’ve set make it highly improbable to make any amount with consistency. I now have a sample size of trades that’s considered statistically significant. I’ll list the rules below. These rules aren’t for my benefit they make my job harder.

Trade only ES
Trade exactly 5 contracts
Trade max once per day
Never add contracts
Never hold overnight

I’ve followed those rules and made $10,000 in 2 months. That’s hard to do. The only thing I can do is come back and work even harder next month.

Whats going on with your other systems? I already received 2 or 3 times the notification that you’ve make them private, then I found them open again. Is it a new C2 glitch?

Test system for one and one is only open to current subs not taking additional subs.

Not a C2 glitch. C2 is working properly. Was just making sure current subs still have access if it’s private and closed to additional people.

Don’t beat yourself up too bad Ronnie. Thanx to you, I have $1700. more than I did last month! :wink: Keep up the great work!

I have reviewed your trading system and feel it is on the higher spectrum of quality. However, I would never scale it the same way you have. Following this system, I would want the account size 10 times larger. You are intraday scalping for an average of 5 ticks maxing out the intraday margin requirements. This means if something goes wrong, and you don’t respect those stops - disaster can strike. You do seem to be reliable and consistent, though. I think it’s an excellent strategy to pair with someone hedging in the other direction, this is really an interesting prospect and I might even subscribe to you - which is something I never considered. With that said… working harder in trading almost rarely means more profits, and in fact - it often can mean the opposite. If you are consistent, just keep doing what you are doing and your subs will stay on course, I’m sure. You must have some sort of system that works to throw that many contracts down on the account size and make it this far.

Hi TradePRO,

Thank you. I would love to have you become a subscriber. I’ll give you a brief description of how I formulate trade ideas and what working harder means to me. Hopefully that gives you perspective.

When I look at a trade I’m really looking at it the way a large fund would look at the trade. These large funds are interested in coming in once a day max into the market to conduct their business and have a short term outlook of 6 months. They’re looking at sentiment and liquidity. They’re looking to add to current positions, reduce current positions, reverse a current position, or initiate a new position. That’s it. These large funds have the most influence on the session and what we’re trying to do is align our trades and tactics based on this foundation. Anywhere else and we’re competing with high frequency firms. What we’ve noticed is the most sophisticated HFT firms shut off around these areas of interest as the large funds have more influence.

I have a degree in finance and worked on Wall St. from 2002 until 2010. If I was hired by a large fund this is the analysis they would be looking for. I think 95% of traders you’ll come across will base their trade ideas on moving averages or RSI or MACD. I’m using none of that. I also take the same trades in my personal accounts.

Working harder to me means something different than what most might think. I don’t view doing more trades as working harder. I think you have to have everything in balance in your life to be successful at trading or whatever else you’re trying to do. Are you eating right? Are you going to the gym regularly? The material is easy we’ve studied charts until we’re blue in the face. You have to be in a good spot mentally. To me working hard is being on point. Being in the zone. Doing the things that don’t seem related to trading but are a very important contributing factor. Am I going over my day or am I just shutting down at 4pm? Things like that. So when I say I’m fired up and ready to work that much harder to me that doesn’t mean just firing off more trades. It means putting in the hours. I’m not one that likes to fail. If I get knocked down I keep coming back stronger until I get it. When I only delivered $2k in profits to my guys it really upset me. I’m willing to shake things around to make sure I do better. I expect more out of myself. I’m teaching my son how to start and grow a business. I’m not about to fail him. Have a good weekend. Ronnie

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Would you be able to alert me at the beginning of a trading session - if a trade is possibly going to be initiated, or absolutely will not be initiated?

There are very rare situations when a trade will absolutely not be initiated. We’re always looking for an opportunity to enter but that being said it doesn’t mean we will find that opportunity. So I would assume we will have a fill for a particular trading session.

For example let’s look at the last session Friday 9/29. No fills but here’s what I was looking for. Looking to enter long between 2502 to 2500.50 with a stop @ 2498.75 to 2496.75 depending on a few factors for the stop. It was the only scenario I was looking for and didn’t get it but if the market had gone there we would of been filled long. Some trading sessions we’re looking for possibly up to 3 different scenarios to play out and would be looking to initiate a trade if any one of the 3 occurred but would stay out otherwise.

As far as definite no fills days. Say the market opened gap on a Sunday and violated certain technical levels and came back and violated another set of levels. Any scenario we would of been looking for would be off the table as both entry and profit/puke targets were all violated so we simply would stay on the sidelines on those days. Doesn’t mean we won’t trade any gap days. Say it opened gap down and respected the levels to the upside and stops were respected we would be interested.

So in short I would assume that everyday there’s the option to get filled. I’m also available at all times with easy access if you have any questions about anything. I’m at my desk the entire trading session and usually get back to people right away even when the cash session is closed.

The system has been running for 3 months. There are 30 trades then out of 60 active sessions, which means - right now - you are trading about half of the sessions. I could find use for this if I had some forewarning that trades might be fired off. For most highly systematic systems, it should be possible unless you are looking at very micro-dialed down signals. I can tell in advance to a session if a signal is likely or unlikely.

Our first trade was July 24th and there’s been 49 trading days since (I don’t count Labor Day). I’ve taken 32 trades which comes out to a little over 65% of the sessions. The analysis for the trading session is done the night before. We’re looking at everything and determine what possible scenarios we’re looking for. Once the day starts everything is set. We’re waiting and know exactly what to do depending on the situation. Think of it like you’re the general in a battle. You’re analysts give you data and possible scenarios. You don’t know what the enemy will do but know there’s only a few likely scenarios that could play out. You prepare yourself for whatever you’re dealt.

As far as knowing if we’ll take a trade or not is a little more difficult. Once the day gets underway we’ll have a better idea. Let’s again look at the example from Friday. We came in and there was very little overnight volume. The market was wound up in a very tight range. We know we’re only looking for a long and only at the levels we mentioned earlier. Will sellers come in and push it down thinking it’s overdone? Will buyers swallow up everything sellers throw at them with no dip at all? We don’t know. All we know is if we get our level we’re looking to buy. If we did we’re looking to make sure the market stabilizes there and we really have paper participation where we feel comfortable with our trade thesis before we pull the trigger. Obviously on a Friday late afternoon it’s pretty clear we’re not getting a trade on but it’s very difficult to determine that before the cash open. Tomorrow I have 3 really good scenarios and 1 decent one so we’ll call it 3. I have no clue if the market will chop around and not give us anything or if we’ll be presented with something. We have what we’re looking for and know exactly what to do. It ends up as a IF THEN statement. Once the market opens I end up watching for that and know what I’m supposed to do depending. If I get none of my scenarios I do nothing. IF this happens THEN do that. The main thing is I don’t want to be sitting there making decisions while in a trade. I want to think about the entire life cycle of the trade long before I’m even in the trade when my head is clear and logical.

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Honing this down to a probabiltiy scale of whether you will take a trade based on certain levels of the E-Minis will be favorable. Example: Today I am likely to trade if ES dips below XYZ level or unlikely to trade if ES trades above XYZ level. This type of approach will also add confidence to subscribers that you are using a systematic/non-discretionary approach. If/when this is possible, I am likely to subscribe with these results.

Just to clarify… that type of approach is specifically interesting to me because I will hedge the trade in the other direction. You may be an exception, but I’ve rarely seen systems trading this many contracts on an account balance like this work out for the long term. It’s not necessarily that the approach is not fitted correctly, or the system doesn’t work - it’s that the account balance is not appropriate. If you are not able to fire off trades due to margin errors, then there is an issue. For now, counter hedging this type of strategy is quite appealing to me, but I would need some type of direction on the levels of execution.

Possibly look at it this way. My average loss is $1050 and the current balance is $35,619. That comes out to 2.95% risk per trade. I think I need $25k for this strategy. In that case it would come out to 4.2% risk. We always have a puke point and so far the winning % is 84.40%. If I didn’t feel comfortable with this I wouldn’t also take the same trades in my personal account. I’ve also done a few live videos where I’ve taken these trades broadcast live where people were able to come and watch. We started those sessions before the market opened and had no clue how they would play out. I have a few different people that are trading this strategy at 300% scale. They didn’t start that big but once they got comfortable with my approach and the way I do things they scaled up.

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Great. For me personally, still honing this down to a probabiltiy scale of whether you will take a trade based on certain levels of the E-Minis will be favorable.

One thing, and I am sure you will understand, perhaps you should work harder on not getting upset when you do not produce enough for “your guys”. A correct state of mind for trading, and life in general, is a state that remains consistent with no attachments for particular outcomes.