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Strategy for the (im)patient


#1

Hello C2 community!

There is a new futures strategy created for you to join. It contains my personal trend and swing trading approach which I also use in my strategy for IRA accounts. (https://collective2.com/details/116749021)
This is for people who want to gain much and fast but have the discipline and patience to stick through drawdowns.

First of all, why a new strategy?
I keep the other strategy going so it´s not because I want to restart or something. But I finally came to the conclusion that I have to adapt to the market´s needs if I want to actually have more than a hand full of customers on this plattform. The market says that high yielding future strategies are in stronger demand than very conservative ETF/stock strategies and I have to face that.
My trading is based on the futures markets anyways so there is no problem in realizing it.

What is the difference then?
The main difference is the risk and moneymanagement. While any one position in the IRA strategy usually takes 1-2% risk I will go with 5% risk per trade in the futures strategy. With the help of higher leverage using futures I can also enter some interesting short term setups that I can not effectively exploit in the IRA strategy.
Last but not least there is a difference in setup execution because futures are traded 23/5. Especially when it comes to Stoplosses this can make quite a difference.

Key Points of the strategy:

  • trend and swing trading (holding overnight)
  • trading ES, NG, CL, GC, HG, SI
  • 5% risk per trade with preplanned SL
  • at least 10% profit target per trade
  • trading when there are opportunities, not to please subscribers. Usually 1-3 trades per week.

The first month is free of charge so you can join without additional risk. Or just subscribe and watch it live to get a feeling for my trading style. It´s up to you and you have nothing to lose.

Who is this guy Alexander?
I am 28y old, from Germany and trade the markets for 12 years with my own money (on my fathers broker account for the first 2 years). I started with investing in stocks in 2006/7 so of course I paid the learning fee to the market in 2008. After a 2y break I restarted investing with a value approach. This got the better of me in 2011. I studied at university from 2012-2016 and managed my investments part time. But the extremely long term approach of value investing didnt fit my personality. I started to learn daytrading with futures in 2015 and worked on my trading skills 40hs/week, keeping 20hs/week for my graduation. At first I started trading on a demo account. Just before the August crash in 2015 I migrated to real money trading and got another hard teaching. But since I applied strict risk management the damage was limited. Still, it was a very valuable lesson because I noticed that daytrading is the other extreme that doesnt fit my personality. I developed my personal trading style and made a killing in the next crash in Jan 2016.
In the following years I was focusing on controlling the risk and how to use moneymanagement to increase profits. I also dived into portfolio risk analysis because I wanted to find strategies or investment vehicles that fit well with my own trading.

All the best,
Alexander


#2

A question…why delay the trades listed by 24 hours? Why not reduce that time? Its easier to follow with shorter delay times. I doubt anyone can copy your trades with 8 hours or more anyways.


#3

Subscribers dont have any delay of course. So that´s the actual use for the delay, that non-subscribers cant follow, haha.

I have forgotten to set the sub price to 0 but corrected that now. So anyone interested can join and watch trades in real time without cost.


#4

lol…great…thanks!


#5

Alexander, I hope it goes well. I know you have been around C2 for at least a little while and it sounds like you wish you would have earned more in sub-commission - don’t we all. I know these forums, like most, can sometimes be overly negative or hostile. Just as a scam system can get berated for scamming a conservative system can get berated for not beating the S&P 500 every year or month. However, I don’t get angry if my balanced mutual funds in my 401k don’t beat the market every single year. They are balanced funds and are not meant to do that. I have been impressed that while you have been on C2 you have always made sure to not experience major drawdowns or use extreme amounts of leverage etc. You seem to do your best to treat subscribers and their money with respect. I hope this goes well for you, and even if you are adding some leverage to appeal more to subscribers I bet your cautious nature will still manage to do it in a way that is reasonable and hopefully very profitable for subscribers and you. If C2 had more trade leaders like you, who sought reasonable long term gains, and subscribers with the money and patience needed I think C2 would be a much safer and happier place for everyone. I will be watching. Good luck!


#6

Wow, thank you so much for that uplifting feedback, Charles. That´s truly not something I come across every day.

What you say about balanced funds and the benchmark problem hits the nail on the head. Sure, I understand that people would start to value a conservative system after 2-3 years. However, even then there is only a small percentage of investors looking for that kind of investment. And that´s ok because people have different goals and different time horizons.

That´s one reason why I start this rather risky endeavour, to pull some people away from the obvious scams or completely insane leveraged systems and give them something that at least has a chance to work out for them (if they can stand the drawdowns that is…).
It´s not even about making huge sums in sub fees. I dropped that illusion some day in the past. :wink: For me it´s a side business and a means to take on responsibility for other people´s money outside of family funds. This may sound weird but I want that challenge to grow into this role. Though, I understand that people have to take on responsibility for themselfes and I give this freedom to them and to myself now.

So I want to be cristal clear here. The drawdowns will definitely be larger than what I usually would accept. But as well is the chance.
I once participated in a monthly contest hosted by FXCM broker and used the same techniques with 10% risk per trade (real money, small amount). I made almost 300% in that single months. Lets talk about the magic of compounding, haha… :wink: But of course this was a good month in general. Variance is part of every strategy after all. So 5% is really not for the faint of heart but it should still be safe enough to navigate through bad periods. It will definitely motivate me to be even more selective in picking trades.

Thanks again for the encouragement!


#7

These are quite volatile times so lets have a brief update.

When you look in the trading history you will see a trade that does not match my risk parameters I mentioned in the OP.
11/1/18 13:40 QNGZ8 Natural Gas SHORT 4 contracts @3.246

Exit: 11/4 18:00 3.471
Drawdown 9.77% ($9,032)

This drawdown is the result of a weekend gap. The original SL was sitting at 3.37 but opening was at 3.471 so that has cost almost double the money of what was planned. (Gap is the size of the blue arrow) The point is, the loss didn´t occur because of loose risk management. But of course it is a large loss, nothing to argue here. However, I adapted and now I´m in a long momentum trade. Opened at breakout @3.59 with open P/L of 10-11k.

To also mention a good performing position, I opened a short in S&P500 after mid term elections @2,785. The expectation is the forming of a trend reversal pattern before stocks turn north again so they continue to whipsaw. My target area is 2,655 - 2,615 but I will manage the trade aggressively after breaking 2,700. This can very well lead to a stop out in the winning zone before reaching the target.

Let me know what you think, I appreciate any input.


#8

Brief update:

After 2 failed short term attempts in the S&P500 I am now patiently waiting for the entry into the next mid term long swing. Because of their short term nature these 2 trades were executed with only half the usual risk. I don´t want to use extrem leverage just because of the 5% risk rule and I think 8 ES contracts are absolutely enough load for a 100k account. After all no one died because of too low risk yet. But I will never break that risk rule to the upside.

On another note we opened a nice short in Natural Gas today. I patiently waited until the volatility somewhat calmed down and the market showed signs of exhaustion before entering this trade. The meltdown is expected to start tomorrow but judging from the markets behavior it could actually start tonight already.

You can still subscribe for free if you´re interested in my trading style. Subscribe and just observe my trading behavior or follow along with capital - the decision is yours. So use this opportunity while it´s there. https://collective2.com/details/120672230

Seems like my call wasn´t too bad… Earning money while you sleep is one of the great things in trading. :wink:


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