WARNING/FYI re: Systematic_Trader (and general strat histories)

Trading and Markets
1

Whelp, I’ve lost over $25K in the last few days (so far) autotrading one of his strats, “ES NQ Day Trades”.

I should have looked more closely before subscribing (AND dumping $25K so far):

image
image2426×1832 487 KB

What I did not realize (my own ignorance, hence this message as a warning to others) is that strat managers can pay a small fee to C2 to reset/rename their strats.

THIS strat, turns out, has been running under multiple names (and reset multiple times) since 2020, even though when you go to the strat, you only see it from Oct 2023 (which is when it LOOKS like it started):

  • ORIGINAL “ES NQ Day Trades” strat actually started Dec 2020;
  • Flat/poor performance through Aug 2021, then discontinued;
  • “Nifty India Futures” started Aug 2021 (new incarnation);
  • “Nifty India Futures” flat/poor performance 2022-2023, reset all stats Sept 2023;
  • “Nifty India Futures” then lost 20% Sept/Oct 2023;
  • “Nifty India Futures” reset AGAIN and renamed back to “ES NQ Day Trades”

I share all of this because I did not know (and others may not) that strat managers can reset/rename strats as much as they want apparently (for a small C2 fee). The WHOLE picture of this strat paints a much different picture that the current stats listed.

Specific to Systematic_Trader (the strat manager), FYI (YMMV):

  • He says he runs over 20 strats in parallel,

  • He freely admits he does actually know what each strat does (fair enough with 20 of them),

    Direct quotes from PM’s:

  • “i dont really care about losses…”

  • When asked a specific strat question: “honestly i dont know! I am running over 20systems in parallel.”

  • “i pay ZERO attention to the performance on daily baisis. just once at the end of the year.”

Now the strat manager HAS been very responsive to PM’s which is great.

I’m sharing all of this not to trash the strat or strat manager. The strat manager has NOT been dishonest about anything, he is just operating within the C2 framework. I made a poor/hasty decision to autotrade a strat, which I own, but I did so based on the APPARENT data available, which was NOT a complete picture of the history of the strat.

Personally, it IS a bit disconcerting that the manager is SO hands off (1 of 20 strats running, doesn’t care about losses, doesn’t watch it, checks it once a YEAR, doesn’t trade his own strats…) but hey, I guess if it DOES perform well, that doesn’t really matter.

Anyhow, maybe everyone else knows that resetting/renaming when a strat has a bad streak is part of the system here, but I did not. So this is just an FYI to others that may not know that what you are seeing for a strat may NOT be the complete story.

Currently 17 out of 18 losing trades in the last few days (the worst streak in the history of the strat), personally down over $25K at the moment (so far). I’m going to stick with it until it exceeds its historical MaxDD (which it is very close to), in the fading hope that it miraculously comes back from the abyss.

1 Like
2

As a strategy manager yourself, you did not know this?

3

I did know you could rename a strat, but not that you can reset/remove all previous performance stats from the strat page. More importantly, new subscribers may not know that. Hence the FYI post.

4

That’s a Collective2 platform design that’s applied to everyone.

In any case, besides that- and without really trying to defend the Systematic_Trader- It’s been a more volatile week compared to others. If you started autotrading his strategy at a bad time, it could really just be bad timing, not bad strategy. Genuinely, are you sure you’re not posting this out of the emotion of having drawn down $25k?

IMO the strategy at this point is still performing within boundaries (as you say, it hasn’t reached historical max drawdown). It’s also a drawdown from an ATH, so clearly a strategy that performs and has been. From my screen, it doesn’t look as bad as you’re saying it is TBH.

So if it isn’t bad strategy, consider that time in market (strategy) may be a better decision over jumping in and out- which also doesn’t guarantee you won’t get future bad entry points if you re-invest that money somewhere else. It sucks to face a drawdown, but that’s just the ebb and flow of day-to-day performance. The strategy manager has a point in your last quote that overlaps with my own view.

Of course, the future isn’t certain. The strategy going kaput or recovering from drawdown are possible. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

1 Like
5

LOL of COURSE it’s bad timing, but genuinely, I did not know that strats could only present a subset of their actual performance history. Again, hence the FYI to those that may NOT know this.

And there’s nothing in the original post that is trashing the strat (other than my epically bad timing, pushing a new all-time MaxDD and the longest losing streak in the history of the strat, both accurate), just incomplete information about the complete history of the strat.

And also of course, if I was UP $25K instead of DOWN $25K, would I have been digging into this to figure out WTH i missed (if anything)? Of course not. I’d be buying the strat manager flowers.

But that does not change that, IMO, it is not obvious (findable, but not obvious) that a strat page may be incomplete information. That’s the WHOLE point. Well, along with the strat manager’s VERy hands-off approach, but as you said, that may suit some folks trading styles.

6

i guess so and also probably due to my nonchalant replies on the private chat regarding losses :wink: Sorry, I am indifferent to losses @ChrisPage. I simply trust my systems

Anyway I have no business replying to this post, he is entitled to his opinion.

But some factual corrections -

First - ES NQ Day trades from 2020 is truly alive and kicking and its called Mischmasch! Most likely long term users of c2 know which system is that, and unfortunately it is closed for public as it has a lot of AUM under, So I can not post the link but here is a picture

mischmaschpic
mischmaschpic1255×605 124 KB

I do not remember the exact sequence of events (it was 2020!), but I must have closed it at the very onset and kick started again and called mischmasch. Whats in a name anyway?:slight_smile:

Second - Nifty Futures is a different system (which also had customers) which traded Nifty Index Futures on Singapore exchange. It has nothing to do with US markets/ES/NQ! This Nifty contract is not available on C2 anymore and hence I closed that system. Isnt so obvious from the name? Nifty futures track Indian market, has nothing to do with US market!

Third - I do reset systems sometimes, usually at the onset when I have a drawdown of 20%. - I do not see anything wrong in that. A good start into your strategy means better opportunity to get noticed. We are not talking about abysmal systems that was reset with 100% dd. The current ES NQ Day trades started last October and was reset once in October end when it had a bad start and had a 20% dd - well within my parameters. The other reason for reset is to reuse it under the same c2 trade leader plan.

regarding yearly tweaking - what use is it to look at the history of a system that’s tweaked daily? I have confidence in my systems and in my process. Automation is to remove human emotions. Why would constantly watch and tweak my systems?!

In general - do not expect a system to give more than a calamar of 2. Thats extremely good. even 1.5, I would say is extermely good over long time.
The current dd of es nq day trades dd is well within the limits and here is the bad news - probably you are at half the max drawdown if i look at the last 6 years data and probably at 1/3rd of max drawdown since 2007, if those were to happen again

8

Posted system max dd is approx.19%, achieved in May-Aug 2024, also system has couple of 20k$-25k$ drawdowns.
So, expected max dd based on the stat is 150k$ * 0.19 = 28.5k$.
The system is still within the posted stats, no reason for complains or rant, system acts as it should. yet. :slight_smile:

Also looks like this strategy was not archived and reset yet (edit) it was reset.

2 Likes
9

And the rant was totally personal, using quotes from a private chat! I disapprove :wink:

1 Like
10

A number of points being missed here:

All I have to go by for the history of the current strat is what’s on C2 (with some clicking around), which seems to indicate it’s the same strat since Dec 2020:

https://collective2.com/details/132580781 (Dec 2020 - Jul 2021)
https://collective2.com/details/136310103 (Jul 2021 - Sept 2023)
https://collective2.com/details/145760013 (Sept - Oct 2023)
https://collective2.com/details/146006468 (Oct 2023 - current)

The last link is all that’s obvious unless you KNOW to go digging. Some subscribers may not know to do that, that what they are looking at (for ANY strat) is potentially not the complete history.

And yeah, while I’m not a fan of starting a new strat with a -$25K DD and a strat record of losing trades, what I did NOT do was throw the strat as a whole under the bus (other than lament my bad timing jumping in on the front end of a record setting number of consecutive losing trades). I was calling attention to the lack of (obvious) transparency about the full history of the strat.

My point exactly. There is (according to the links above) close to four years of history for this strat, but all that is on the strat homepage is the last year. Not everyone may know that C2 functions that way. I didn’t, it never occurred to me.

I didn’t say it was new, I’m saying it’s not obvious when you’re looking at a strat’s landing page, unless you KNOW that exists.

11

LOL I would generally agree with you, but those quotes were specific to your trading and strategy management style, which again, is not obvious or stated (to my knowledge) elsewhere. Frankly, it didn’t occur to me that ANY strat manager was THAT hands off. Some folks may care about that (which is why I included that info), maybe most don’t.

If you put “I don’t care about losses, I don’t watch the strat, I don’t know what it does, and I only check it once a year” in the strat description, it may (or may not) influence a potential subscriber’s decision. If nothing else, they’d have that much more info about who/what they’re rolling the dice on. That was the only point.

12

you are confused. What in world makes you think this is the es nq day trade system , apart from the name? scroll through the trades apart from the first few. its Nifty India Futures system.

nifty
nifty1623×732 197 KB

nifty
nifty1243×774 208 KB

What you found as a ‘hidden’ truth is not what it seems to be. and whats so bad about this system anyway!

And I am done with these explanations :))

13

I generally stay out of conversations where one manager takes aim at another, but I think the record needs to be set straight on this one. I personally subscribe to exactly 7 strategies of @EvaRossmann (Systematic_Trader). My futures account is up over 50% YTD and the majority of those profits came from those 7 systems. You’ll find that a good number of the systems are TOS certified, and I believe most if not all that are not TOS are still being traded personally by Eva. The reason these systems tend to perform well over the long term is that they are NOT constantly monitored and tweaked. I did briefly follow this system that was constantly tweaked and we know how that turned out:

(Correction for the record: it turns out that my account is currently up 37% YTD, while it was up 58% a few weeks ago. I have been suffering a pretty nasty drawdown lately, but that is part of the game as Eva said.)

2 Likes
14

LOL! “apart from the name”…

Umm, I don’t know, the name? That might give someone the impression it’s the same strat…

For the last time, ALL I have to go by (like any other subscriber) is what is on C2 (with some non-obvious clicking around). That’s potentially true for ANY strat, not just yours.

If there’s any USEFUL takeaway from this whole thread for any new/potential subscriber, it was intended to be:

  • The trade history you see on the landing page of ANY strat may not tell the whole story of a strat (and that’s not obvious on the landing page of a strat);
  • The trade/strat style for you is EXTREMELY hands off. That’s not a criticism, that’s just a fact. Some may care about that, others won’t. Hence the FYI.
16

thanks for that lovely approval message @GaryLynn2 :slight_smile: Am sorry about the drawdown of ES NQ Day trades which you/me and all subscribers also had to go through, but you have been a customer long enough to understand the game

1 Like
17

LOL Gary, off the rails we go. Yeah, that was a suck last few months, but as was HEAVILY documented in real time on the forums here from late March on, that was more of an ongoing issue (still my ultimate responsibility) of bugs at the time, most notably out of sync trades in Multicharts (there are actually several bug fixes since then in MC15 thanks to those couple of months) and a couple of IB TWS API hiccups since those were all TOS trades broadcast from IB.

It was a lot of things, and I of course take responsibility for all of it, but it was not the weekly tuning the systems do on their own. Turns out I could have apparently reset my stats and kept going :wink: but my attention turned back to my IRL clients and job.

Hopefully end of thread. Not that it will ACTUALLY do any potential subscribers any good with all of the noise.

19

@ChrisPage Heavily documented yes, constant tweaking yes, I also presume very hands on too , LOL. Being very hands on, how exactly did you miss that your systems took wrong trades?!!! Or is that hands-on only for documentations. You write a lot of useless information. No results to show though. How can you throw stones on others?

2 Likes
20

Jesus, they come out of the woodwork.

How is THAT throwing stones, and what the hell does this have to do with you anyways? Are you THAT bored?

You all have sufficiently defended the strat author’s honor (like they were a maiden in need of rescuing). I stated facts about recent strat performance, lamented my poor timing entering, state the strat author had done NOTHING dishonest (in fact they’ve been helpful and communicative), and communicated the two points above that some potential subscribers may not know or may care about.

I’m still subscribed, and hoping it turns around before it hits my risk/exit tolerance. I begrudge the author NOTHING.

If I was throwing stones, you’d know it. Get a hobby.

1 Like