Here’s my new strategy EasyGBP - [c2page] [myfxbook] - I didn’t plan on posting a thread until I got at least 100+ trades into it but as an old pro I decided being candid would be more fun (since the strategy is fully-automated). These same trades will also be driving my upcoming MFF challenge so during this period where I was just going to build a track record might as well let 'er rip publicly. The strategy is pretty basic and best described as the traditional ‘cut your losses and let your profits run’. All trades have tight stop-losses (on my side. I cant stomach big losses - I need my beauty sleep) and the lot size scales accordingly.
This system is a pretty boring trader. It trades pretty often to get into the action so you wont be Dazzled by a 90% Win Rate but win pips amounts vs loss pips are nicely tilted to the winners. We Ain’t Fancy…
NOTE: First equity dip caused by Oanda normal spread account which had an adverse effect since my stops are pretty tight. Switched to commission and the account recovered quickly (Oanda was trading terrible vs Tickmill raw spreads. Commision has much better spreads but $10 round trip).
NOTE: Second equity dip caused by skipped trades from my trade copier. Of course while setting it up it missed the HUGE GBP crash that the master account was trading. The EA missed 2X huge profitable trades and got in late for a small loss. Grrrrr… - Setup RESTORED and equity rises again. Also Added the AUD pair since it basically trades with 80%+ correlation to GBP. Reduced Risk Per Trade to make room for AUD.
Quick Question: Does Drawdown ever go DOWN? Without those ‘Oops’ losses this would prob be C2Star Ready. Since I’ll prob need a >5% account I’ll prob not RESET it but just askin’
Should be Smooth(er) Sailing from this Point Forward…
Thanks for sharing and taking the trouble to post a description - can never understand why others don’t bother as It’s an immediate red flag. Any reason why you’re using a demo account and not a live one that you are trading yourself - it just gives investors more confidence in your system. Good to see a system with such a high average profit to loss - hope it continues that way. The real test for this system will be when volatility levels level off, but that may take some time with the ongoing crises in the UK and Europe!
I prefer for the Master account to be Demo because they always get perfect fills (and often faster) with no hassle. A LIVE account might hesitate for a variety of reasons. I always copy-trade (even personally) from a driver demo account. I always want the EA making decisions in an uninterrupted flow so the ‘working’ version mirrors 99.99% strategy backtests that always get perfect fills.
As far as non-volatility my 99.99% backtests appear to show minor loss/gains until opportunity presents itself. The AUD backtest for this same timeframe actually shows very gradual upwards movement with almost no stalling. Neither shows huge dips that require a ‘gambling’ recovery so eventually both get back on track. Next week is a HUGE News week so this should be Fun!!
Here’s the AUDUSD 99.99% backtest for the same period. These 2X are the EA’s Wonder-Twins. Highly correlated. It also shows very minor stalling and then continued upward progress.
BREAKING NEWS: Just In Time For My Debut (Ta Daaa) - Finished My 99.99% Testing HIGH-IMPACT Filter for GBP. - AUD is slower and sleepy and doesn’t need it but GBP can have Wild Dips, Swings and Fakeouts. Unfortunately, I had to add another indicator to the system (now at 3) but it should pay for itself by filtering out fakeouts, increasing profits and reducing the already low projected drawdown. This is the Perfect Week To Give It A Spin on GBPUSD (also opens the door for other high-volatility pairs with nice daily movement).
While the increase in profits is very nice. The BOOST in Profit Factor is Startling! (2.90 ->> 5.29) - 25 trades got filtered out and the graph smoothed out so much it looks like a pleasant climbing trail. This tweak should make the ride through choppy water much smoother…
Back with an Update for EasyGBP - [c2page]. WHEW!! - October was a rough month but I got a lot of nice EA improvements out of it. My strategy had a decent start in September and gained 5.3% and it was rolling into October on the same trajectory. After a couple of nice wins it started collecting small losses without a recovery bump. RED ALERT!! - I looked at the GBP charts and they were going cRazY. Turned on the news and Liz Truss (London PM) had fired her finance minister and the UK was in upheaval. Within days she also would be sacked!!
The currency was creating repeated 100+ pips bars back to back. Whipsawing Up and Down. If EasyGBP has a weakness its a Black Swan market that has wild volatility. In the past systems I’ve had that could trade this mess would overtrade since the market can trigger them so easily so I’ve chosen a more sedate approach. After panicking I went to my ‘Watchlist’ and saw that other providers were suffering FAR WORSE than me. After breathing a sigh of relief I went back to work.
I left my system running (since the DD was still low) and after reviewing the resulting trades I was excited to find EA solutions to the volatility issue. In fact after review I concluded that my older version actually did a pretty decent job of managing the madness. Its true that it opened a sequence of losing trades BUT most didn’t hit full Stoploss before closing. In review it was actually impressive risk management.
In any event the end result was the addition of multiple systems that would have greatly reduced even this minor drawdown. I’m curious about how they would have fared. In my estimation, the loss would have been cut by at least 50% and could possibly have resulted in a small profit. The first test of this system was Thursday’s 0.75% interest rate hike and Friday’s NFP. I expected at least ONE trade that would prob close for a small loss but got NADA - NOTHING. For both news items GBPUSD whipsawed wildly and EasyGBP DIDNT BLINK. The new volatility filters worked perfectly and didnt trigger a trade.
So November will be a true picture of the upgraded EA possibilities. I’m FULLY confident in the risk management strategy which has kept Drawdown nicely under 10% even before upgrades. November has started and it appears all is back on track. As stated before the EA cuts losses shorts and lets winners run so even with a low win rate it comes out ahead.
So far in Nov we’ve had 4 trades - 2 Winners (+$2232) , 2 Losers (-$189) and thats closer to what is expected of this system. I expect more small losers but the larger wins will easily surpass the drawdown. I added this system to C2 in Sep and spent about 2 months refining the code and configuring my trade copier setup. This actually resulted in reduced startup profitability as the EA missed profitable trades during this ‘tuning’ period and truthfully the system would be ahead in spite of the GBP whipsaws.
FINALLY it looks like all the bugs have been worked out and it should be smooth(er) sailing going forward. I’m beaming about the new EA systems since the core was so solid and I was actually able to find improvements even at this stage. Now I’m just sitting back and watching the show…
I wasnt going to write this until months end when I could compare Oct. vs Nov. but after ‘Patience Is A Virtue’ and a Youtuber detailed his MILLION dollar trade loss (with video) - I saw how powerful it is to talk about ‘losing’ periods and solutions. The honesty is refreshing. So here’s my GBP Whipsaw tale…
SUPERIOR RISK MANAGEMENT : Enabled. - This was my #1 concern when writing this EA and the system worked as designed and prevented Drawdown from exceeding 10% even in the worst conditions. SIGN UP TODAY - to Simulate or Trade EasyGBP. I’ve got a good feelin’ about this month…
Back Again With A Report I didnt intend to write. But…
WHATEVER DOESNT KILL YOU - MAKES YOU STRONGER
Last month I was pretty confused by the suddenly reduced effectiveness of my EA. Up to that point (before C2) everything was going along just fine so it was curious timing when it turned. I knew the reason: CHAOS IN THE UK - After Liz Truss was appointed and proposed interest rates cuts IN A RECESSION - Its blew the GBPUSD up and dragged the correlated currencies down and my system was taking a minor beating.
After review, I realized that my minor dip was nothing compared to what others had experienced in the same timeframe (my previous post). In fact, the whole episode turned out to be a blessing in disguise. The upheaval and the British system allowed the calamity to play out in weeks instead of years (from damage to leadership change) providing the PERFECT test conditions for optimization.
I was gonna just generate the report for internal tuning but after I saw the stagnation results I decided to share the info. I guess I’m just stunned that if I hadn’t performed optimization I would still be in that bad period right now waiting for recovery. My NEW settings move the LONGEST period of stagnation from NOW to the beginning of the test (the natural dip spot) and seriously boosted profitability.
It kinda scares me wondering how much longer it would have lasted. It took me a couple weeks of running 99.99% Tick data backtests to find settings that didn’t lose during that October Liz Truss Chaos. Turned out to be a balancing act - If I found setting that profited during this period they were so restrictive that they reduced profitability at other times or so loose that I gained during other periods but lost during the Truss debacle.
Eventually, I ended up with a decent compromise. Settings that were slight losers during the worst periods (or flat) and performing VERY well during other times. After looking at a ton of reports I don’t feel too bad about using the previous settings since they performed well BEFORE that period so there was really no way to see it coming. SURPRISE, SURPRISE, SURPRISE: The new settings that can withstand the GBPUSD dip are actually 3X more profitable that my ‘good’ previous setting. WOW!! - I was just trying to find DAMAGE MITIGATION.
Also pleasantly surprising was the Monte Carlo simulation which already had a nice distribution. The new settings TIGHTENED up the possible variation and increased the reliability of the EA. I’ll include those simulations here along with the MT4 strategy tester results for the basis of these portfolio comparisons. In the GBPUSD/AUDUSD backtests you can see where I had to leave the ‘stagnation’ period in the chart for overall better results (NZDUSD Badger dont care) and even in those cases its just a profit ‘pause’ instead of a ‘dip’.
These settings have only been ACTIVE for a few days and started off with a BANG by earning about 3.5%+ last week (recovering some of the stagnation period I was in). Excited for the coming weeks to see the NEW setting in action on the account. SIMULATE EasyGBP and Follow Along - It’ll Be FUN…
Never met a backtest I didn’t like
Doesn’t matter how much you post/explain/etc on here, especially when not TOS.
You won’t get subscribers with talk. All that matters is actual results. Focus on that and you’ll do fine.
These posts arent designed to convince. The actual trading page with RESULTS is designed for that. I’m just documenting my process and update/changes and being truthful about up/down issues since most traders only post when they’re on a good run or to justify bad results to an outraged user(s).
I’m a hobbyist game designer so I’m prob used to posting dev logs during development and refinement.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!! - I’m seething and captured of screenshot of my ‘Shit Happens’ Pain for my records and decided to share. My EA has been prepped and tuned. Ready To Go For 2023 and starting out nicely!! 3 Currencies Take-Off and the trade copier I use copies ONLY TWO and of course the Biggest Winner doesn’t make the cut. (GBPUSD dropped outside my max price difference. Increased Now). What sticks the knife even more is that as I type this a 2nd-chance profitable GBPUSD trade is should/would be open (and is on my desktop MT4) if it really didn’t catch the first trade BUT that one did so its not fully reset (just didn’t copy).
Nice knowing that every currency is actually working as designed is good to know. Missing the biggest winner 2X is a gut punch. You can always depend on trading to deliver the ‘feels’. Aside from that EasyGBP entries and exists look FANTASTIC. Its doing a damn good job of taking whats available off the table and getting out of town before the currency reverses even if its only for small gains rather than losses. Lookin’ Good…